the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT) in opposition to the government, to stand alone, or to wait for a better deal to come along. Our Ukraine seems to have a hard time making decisions.
Obviously, Our Ukraine has deep divisions, serious enough to postpone last weekend’s convention for another two weeks. Perhaps they will split, with some members joining BYuT, and others entering the Party of Regions. What is obvious is that strong ideological and business interests are making it difficult for the once powerful pro-Western political force to go into opposition to the pro-Russian Regions party. Having failed to cobble together an Orange government [reference to Orange Revolution led by Our Ukraine and Byut], Our Ukraine cannot seem to find a modus vivendi to save face. The word on the street is that it is committing political suicide.
Ukraine’s politics since the March parliamentary elections have antagonized many of its citizens. President Yuschenko’s refusal to call an Orange coalition had heads shaking around the world. Our Ukraine’s [August] decision to join the pro-Russian Regions Party and leftists in a coalition government was met with shock. Can these be the same people who led the Orange Revolution? The last straw was Yushchenko’s supporting Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych as prime minister. The discredited frauds of the 2004 presidential elections [in which Yanukovych competed against Yushchenko] were handed power over Ukraine contrary to the people’s will. Incredible but true.
The only good news was Yulia Tymoshenko’s decision to form an opposition to the government. A recent poll by national Ukrainian TV channel ICTV showed that among the country’s leaders, the opposition enjoyed the greatest confidence. Both the president and prime minister were left far behind, with substantially lower ratings.
So far, Yulia Tymoshenko is performing very well as the leader of the opposition. With some exceptions, she is holding on to her team. She attracted [former Finance Minister] Viktor Pinzenyk’s Reform and Order Party and the former stronghold of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalist, now much weakened, KUN. In all, she controls 125 seats in the 450 seat Rada. Viktor Yanukovych, together with the Communists and Socialists, has 239 seats.
Should Our Ukraine join Yulia Tymoshenko, it would consolidate Ukraine’s pro-Western groups both inside and outside of parliament. This would be a positive political development, an alignment of parties along ideological lines. Regardless of Our Ukraine’s decision, Ukraine’s parliamentary opposition needs to continue working as a counterbalance to the government. That is the role of a government opposition: to be the watchdog of democracy. Already, there are signs of backsliding towards Soviet style politics. None is more worrisome than Russia’s determination to control Ukraine’s energy sector.
The energy talk is grim. According to well-placed sources, Russia’s deal with Ukraine is this: It will deliver relatively cheap energy provided there is no NATO integration; no entrance to the World Trade Organization ahead of Russia; no cutback to the Russian Black Sea Fleet; and no unilateral exploration of energy on the Black Sea Shelf. Moreover, Russia wants to control the pipeline carrying its energy to Europe via Ukraine. Energy is a huge issue for Ukraine. There could be a big fight in parliament between the pro-Russian government and the pro-Western opposition. Where will the president’s party be?
There is more. A member of Ukraine’s Central Electoral Commission, Mykola Melnyk, withdrew his membership last week. According to the press, he had started criminal proceedings against Serhiy Kivalov, the commission’s former head, who is now a member of parliament on the Region’s list. In turn, this precipitated proceedings against Melnyk and three other commission members. His resignation, under pressure it seems, is reminiscent of former years, when those who got in the way of the Communist party were eliminated. There is grave concern that freedom of the press may be the next victim.
So what will Our Ukraine do? Support the interests of the nation and people by joining the opposition or, as the latest news indicates, remain in the government’s orbit?
Most likely there will be a split. Some will stay in the coalition and show their true colors; some will become unaligned opposition members. Pro-Western party members who understand the importance of a strong and cohesive government opposition may join BYuT, along with those who realize their longer-term political interests lie with the opposition rather than the government.
Ms. Tymoshenko needs to be careful, however. BYuT is popular. Andriy Shevchenko, one of its prominent young members, had the attention of every political party representative when he spoke about the role of the opposition on ICTV’s Svoboda Slova program. There was respect, perhaps fear, among the ranks of the government coalition that the opposition means business. Such appearances demonstrate that BYuT is a political force to be reckoned with, the people’s hope. Her bloc may be better off without some Our Ukraine members, who may wish to capitalize on her political strength, but turn traitors down the road.
And it looks like the people’s support for the opposition will continue to grow providing that it …
1) Attracts like-minded members.
2) Recognizes that a split opposition will split the electorate and give victory to the other government.
3) Continues to be politically smart — finding agreement where it can without compromising national and individual interests.
4) Brings to justice some of the riggers of the 2004 presidential elections.
5) Appoints the best people as shadow cabinet ministers, taking into account experience, regions and gender, to follow each ministry’s issues and produce alternate policies.
6) Develops a clear and understandable political program for Ukraine’s electorate, including foreign, defense, finance, social, cultural, environment policies.
7) Tells the people what it will do for them and where it will find money to do it.
8) Behaves as if it were the government in waiting, and better than the one in power.
8) Provides public exposure to its team members in parliament, in the regions and media, allowing people to identify with their deputies.
9) Makes international friends and seeks expertise from other parliamentary oppositions. Every democracy has one: Great Britain, Germany, the United States, India, Canada – most will be glad to assist and share experiences.
10) constantly prepares for elections by telling the people how it would handle each issue differently from the government.
11) The current government realizes that the opposition is working hard to win the people’s confidence, and victory in the next elections. To counter, the government may propose attractive policies, particularly in the social sector, which will resonate with the people. The opposition should welcome this and claim victory, as its strong presence would then be recognized as having forced the government to work for the national and individual interests of its citizens. Oksana Bashuk Hepburn is President of U*CAN, a consulting firm. She is writing a book about the diaspora and Ukraine between the War and the Orange Revolution.
