The
EU needs Ukraine to comply with some key conditions before the
agreement is signed. These include a fix of improper electoral rules
and other reforms and, most importantly, the release of ex-premier
Yulia Tymoshenko.
There’s
been progress on some reforms but ensuring free elections is not one
of them. Last fall’s parliamentary elections saw serious vote
tampering in five races. Opposition party winners were replaced by
the president’s Party of Regions. Re-elections have yet to take
place.
Meanwhile,
opposition candidate Arkady Kornatskiy has fled the country with his
family (Kornatskiy has since returned). Their lives have been
threatened, business raided and staff incarcerated. Kornatskiy’s
chief accountant was arrested while on a walk near her home. She’s
been held in a detention centre without being accused or having a
trial for nearly six months.
Such
blatant political abuses would make it easy to say no, but Europe
stands to gain from an alliance with Ukraine not just economically
but also by containing Russia’s expansionism. Ukraine’s patriots and
oligarchs are, for once, on the same page and in tandem with Europe.
Both want national sovereignty; the former to build a strong national
state; the latter to access the EU markets.
Last
week in Kyiv, celebrating the 1,025th anniversary of the Baptism of
Kyiv, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and Russia’s Vladimir
Putin could not bear each other for more than a fifteen-minute
meeting. Then, underscoring the rift, Yanukovych cautioned foreign
states not to use religion for political ends. This was a direct hit
at Moscow’s Patriarch Kirill, a devout supporter of a re-emerging
empire with theocratic shadings and President Putin’s main instrument
in coercing global Orthodoxy, and with it economic and political
integration, with Russia.
Russia’s
myopic notion of one Russian world – a return to the way things
were under the Soviet Union – is the reason President Yanukovych
has resisted membership in its Customs Union, which also includes
Kazakhstan and Belarus. President Yanukovych knows that his wealth,
and that of Ukraine’s oligarchs, will be hostage to Russia’s
aggressiveness. This was made clear when Russia lost patience with
one of the leading agribusiness oligarchs when, days after arriving
in Kyiv to spread “brotherly love,” it banned the import of
Ukrainian candy.
Small
wonder that Yanukovych would like to side with Europe – the EU
would like it too – but first, he must free Tymoshenko.
It
has been made quite clear that the illegal arrest and incarceration
of the opposition leader cannot be dismissed by world democracies.
The July 30th decision by the European Court of Human
Rights confirmed that her rights were violated. The EU must take the
Court’s decision into account. Those who have supported the
Association Agreement and, in turn, the excesses of Yanukovych by
crowing “Ukraine is more important than one woman” – some
diaspora organizations and former President Viktor Yushchenko come to
mind – missed the significance of the democratic cornerstone. In
order to go forward, the president must release her.
There
is much is to be gained from more European integration. It will help
Ukraine in terms of rule of law, good governance, living standards
and free movement; a much brighter future than the Russia alternative
that Ukraine experienced under Soviet rule. If he lets her go, most
likely the EU’s November deadline for compliance will be extended.
Other democracies, including Canada with some 1.3 million citizens of
Ukrainian decent, will step up their own bilateral free trade
negotiations, which were put on hold following Tymoshenko’s arrest.
Tymoshenko’s
freedom is a huge play. It will set in motion great changes for
Ukraine, Europe and, perhaps even the world. Canada has been in the
forefront in making sure this happens. From day one, Prime Minster
Harper, the foreign minister and others have urged President
Yanukovych to do the right thing. Now, another nudge is needed to
make sure he opens the right door.
Oksana Bashuk
Hepburn is a former president of the U*CAN Ukraine Canada
Relations Inc., a consulting firm.
