It is time to take a brief look at what the world will be like after the coronavirus. This is the only way to see both the new possibilities and the dead ends that should be kept in mind.
The epidemic has triggered crises that were long overdue, so the current situation in the world goes far beyond purely medical problems, greatly affecting the economy, politics, ethics, culture, etc. (and sometimes turning them upside down). It will be fair to say that the world is in a systemic crisis.
The first important point is that the current systemic crisis does not break the trends observed before it started but only accelerates them strongly. I will not theoretically prove this thesis, but simply suggest examining it using the following examples. However, this is how all crises behave: they accelerate trends, rewinding fast forward, so that the old and the obsolete finally falls away and the new sprouts and strengthens.
It is important to emphasize that in this article I am assuming that humankind will overcome the epidemic. Of course, there is a non-zero probability that the virus will mutate, the world will be covered by one, two or more new waves, and mutations will not reduce the virus’s mortality (scientists say it will be a sign of artificial origin of the virus: natural viruses want to live and, therefore, “learn” to kill their carriers less to spread more; so our species had learned to co-exist with many viruses and they had learned to co-exist with us). A world consumed by an endless epidemic is completely different, but such a trajectory is unlikely. It is equally unlikely that any group of people will become lifelong carriers of the virus: they do not become ill themselves but infect everyone else indefinitely, so they must be forcibly isolated for the rest of their lives in the “21st-century leprosariums.” We will not consider such unlikely and very different scenarios. So, we start from the assumption that the epidemic can be overcome.
The second important point is that many trends go in pairs, and the world has not yet made its final choice between two alternatives, both of which are evident. We call such trends variable.
1A. Globalization. The most powerful trend in the last 50 years is gaining momentum. Events in an unknown city on a remote continent directly affect your life (as well as your death). The virus knows no boundaries. Many more people will now be able to show countries previously unknown to them on the map. And the fight against the virus is happening around the world: the network of scientists knows no boundaries, as well as their microscopic enemy. After the crisis, the world will become even more globalized.
1B. Protectionism. At the same time, we are seeing the strengthening of the opposite trend, which has been manifesting in the world for some time. Each country is fighting the epidemic on its own. Suddenly, old forgotten boundaries have arisen, sometimes turning into impregnable walls. Voices of international organizations and supranational structures are weaker than the voices of national governments. The nation-state, which some have already thought of throwing into the dustbin of history, is again mobilized and enters the battle for vaccines, tests, masks, and medical equipment, using all its power and ignoring the interests of others. After the crisis, nation-states will only grow in power.
2A. Electronic communication. Quarantine has proven to be a powerful way to combat the epidemic, leading to an increased shift in life and business online, although this trend has long been taking hold. Private and professional communication, shopping, administrative services, entertainment, training, all of this has significantly moved online. Obviously, in response to this demand, a much more diverse and higher-quality supply will emerge. Everything that has been done offline or was not convenient enough will be done online from now on, with maximum comfort.
2B. Live communication. We remain biological beings, and we need live communication, physical contact, being in a common space. After a long forced break, this need will surge strongly, so the number of parties, concerts, exhibitions, sports competitions, congresses, and all kinds of corporate and club events will jump up dramatically and reach a new level. We will feel the value of personal communication again (it turned out to be so easy to lose) and will never give up on it. A virtual office will never replace a physical one. Distance learning will not replace live group creativity and communication.
3A. Social distancing. During a crisis, people are forced to think more about themselves and a limited circle of loved ones. The epidemic has taught us to keep the distance: you never know who is standing in front of you in a queue or walking toward you on the street. We trust strangers less. It is necessary to keep the distance, both physically and psychologically. Psychological distance is just as necessary because we have just been through difficult times and may have even lost loved ones.
3B. Social unity. As a result of the epidemic, people have started taking responsibility for each other more, and this is not just about altruism: it is possible that by helping another person today you are making an important contribution to saving your own life tomorrow. People have become more capable of collective action.
4A. Total surveillance. Corporations and states are increasingly watching us, gathering more and more information. Previously, they knew more about you than your mom; now they know more about you than you do yourself. This trend has long since taken effect, but the coronavirus pandemic has significantly increased the need for surveillance. Now Big Brother looks at us from the screen of every smartphone (and watches through its camera), looks for our faces on thousands of cameras that track our every move, uses all our gadgets to find out about our health and mood.
4B. The thirst for freedom. The trend towards increasing freedom is the most ancient, sustainable and irresistible trend in the last three thousand years. Despite some backtracking, the humankind is slowly moving in this direction, and our time is no exception. Central governments have less and less power, while cities, local communities and public associations have more. The monopoly on power is destroyed, and the genie of freedom cannot be put back into the bottle. And most importantly, people are becoming more aware and learning to take more responsibility for their lives. The distant government will not help against garbage in your own yard.
This is how the world is now stretched between variable trends, and we can’t tell which way it will turn, so there are several radically different possible scenarios.
Are there any trends that do not have matching alternatives, inevitable trends? There are some. They have all been gaining ground for a long time.
5. Health Care. Never again will we be as carefree as before. The experience of fearing for yourself and your loved ones will make more people care about healthy lifestyles and early diagnosis. Tens of millions of people suddenly realized they are mortal. Moreover, some of the powers that be have realized that they would have to be treated in their home countries, not in the best world clinics.
6. The spread of religion. Feelings of mortality and insecurity are spreading. A virus is an enemy that is not visible and shoots at random. Who among the dozens of people in a bus, in a queue, in a store will get infected and who will go unharmed? How to explain what cannot be explained by science? How to name forces we do not understand? There are even more existential questions and even less answers. Religious faith grows with every global systemic crisis, and the deepest ones give birth to new religions.
7. Digitalization. What has moved into the digital space will no longer come back. This applies to business processes, administrative services and everyone’s habits. This is definitely not a new trend, but the systemic global crisis has accelerated it.
8. Flexible work. The crisis has forced every company to learn to work remotely, outsource and engage more freelancers. The boundary between work and private life has blurred even further. And these changes are irreversible. There will be less boring meetings, more fun messengers.
9. Organizational culture. Alongside the previous trend, there is increasingly less control, more confidence, less command, and more autonomy. Organizations which have embedded these changes in their culture before the crisis benefited from this trend the most.
10. Biotechnology. Investments have been pouring into this industry for a long time, but now they will be growing even bigger. Biotech will replace information and communication technologies as a driving force for further development and competition of countries.
11. Anxiety. You will not like this trend, but it is not new either. There is more anxiety in the world, and it didn’t emerge yesterday. The era of endless growth and prosperity is over. We have terrorism, wars, instability, economic crises, and now a pandemic. People will become even more anxious, and politicians will be even more successful in trading fear and hope.
12. Strengthening of hegemonic countries. Ask a hundred different people to run a marathon, and one of them will consider it a good form of entertainment, another will reach the finish line totally exhausted, some will leave the track, while others will die after 10 kilometers. The global systemic crisis strengthens the strong and weakens the weak, so the gap between the strong and the weak increases. But don’t think about strength and weakness in terms of gross domestic product or military might. It is more correct to say that the global systemic crisis strengthens the fragile and weakens the anti-fragile (this term was introduced by Nassim Taleb, the author of Black Swan). Anti-fragility is a feature of systems that makes them stronger after crises. The fragility of countries is determined by institutions, culture, elites, and civil society. It is already clear that China and Germany have proven to be anti-fragile, and so far we can say nothing about the US and Russia.
One way or another, any major systemic crisis always leads to the elimination of weak people, weak companies, weak countries, unnecessary costs, outdated processes, unjustified restrictions, deadly traditions, unrealistic projects, etc. Unfortunately, it is we or our loved ones who might be the weak ones.
I would like to consider more trends, but I am limited by the scope of the article. I hope I have been able to convey to you the spirit of the time, the Zeitgeist that will define and inspire the post-crisis era.
You see that the key trends that will shape the future of the world are still variable. No choice made so far. This choice is made not by governments, secret lodges, or corporate boards of directors. This choice is made by the people of the world, you and me. The choices we make now, independently of one another, and often unaware of it, will determine our future. A different choice may be made in different parts of the world, and, as a result, an abyss will form between them. Be vigilant, conscious, and resilient.
