Viktor Yanukovych is a unique president. He is probably the only head of a European state who thinks that ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s case is not politically motivated, and that Ukrainian courts are free.
With the same stubbornness, Yanukovych continues to pretend that he sees no connection between the Aug. 5 arrest of Tymoshenko and the negotiations over an association and free-trade agreement with the European Union.
The European Union itself is partially to blame for it, having said before that the Tymoshenko case is on one track, while the association negotiations are on a different one.
Now the European Union has to make a big effort to get Yanukovych to change his mind, as well as instill a sense in the Ukrainian president that he will face something worse than diplomatic statements and phone conversations for these offenses.
There is still potential in personal conversations to get through to Yanukovych. Lately, there have been at least two such conversations involving Yanukovych, one with Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski, and the other with Slovakian Foreign Minister Mikulas Dzurinda.
I don’t know about the meeting with Komorowski, but the one with Dzurinda, who knows Yanukovych since his prime ministership in Slovakia in 1998-2006, was very intensive.
Dzurinda managed to build that conversation around his personal experience. The former prime minister of Slovakia told Yanukovych that he had been pushed to deal with his controversial predecessor, Vladimir Meciar.
There were even reasons for Dzurinda to pursue a criminal case against Meciar, involving serious violations of privatization law. But Dzurinda resisted the pressure and does not regret it now; Meciar eventually disappeared from Slovakian politics.
Of course, few are able to talk with Yanukovych the way that Dzurinda can. I have heard many complaints from my Western sources that Yanukovych likes to talk a lot and listen a little.
Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych meets with his French counterpart Nikolas Sarkozy in this 2010 file photo. (UNIAN)
Nonetheless, the first thing that the European Union should do if they are interested in getting closer to Ukraine is to increase personal conversations between Yanukovych and European leaders.
In these conversations, Yanukovych’s partners should explain to him how persecution of political opponents can undermine the dialogue between him and the West in general.
Ukraine’s president must understand that, if democracy further retreats, leaders such as German’s Angela Merkel and France’s Nicolas Sarkozy might fail to find any opportunity to meet with him, even in the corridors of international forums such as the United Nations General Assembly.
Yanukovych must understand that if the politically flavored criminal games continue, he will simply become persona non grata in key European capitals.
Perhaps the European Union should also consider sending to Kyiv a mission of friends of Ukraine – those European politicians who have always been sympathetic towards Ukraine, including former presidents and prime ministers who are not in the ranks of Tymoshenko supporters.
For instance, the Polish president is part of the Civic Platform, seen as supportive of Tymoshenko during the last presidential election.
The European Union should also explain that it’s not Tymoshenko that they support, but rather it’s
Yanukovych’s desire to integrate Ukraine into the EU.
This Europe that he strives for does not accept revenge and attempts to crush political opponents in place of justice.
The EU should persuade Yanukovych that, had it been him in her shoes today, the reaction of Brussels would be just as critical and condemning.
At the same time, it would be nice if someone in the European capitals made it clear that the more Yanukovych & Co. discredit themselves in the
Tymoshenko case, the more reluctant the European Union will be to react to potential persecution of Yanukovych after his presidential term runs out.
If these conversations fail to bring the desired positive changes, European leaders should unambiguously hint to Yanukovych that they are well aware of the whereabouts of bank accounts of his inner circle. They might add that, in case of any aggravation of the situation, nobody can guarantee the safety of these assets.
In other words, the European Union should be pressing the hot buttons that affect Yanukovych and his inner circle.
Under no circumstances should EU leaders punish Yanukovych with threats not to sign an association agreement with Ukraine, with its expected free-trade and visa-liberalization benefits. The Ukrainian people should not be made hostage to Tymoshenko’s case.
In fact, 20 years into their independence, Ukrainians deserve to have their romance with the EU turned into a commitment.
Signing an association agreement is truly a unique chance in Ukraine-EU relations. If individual EU countries have any questions about the anti-democratic trends in Ukraine, they can ask them during the process of ratification – after Ukraine has committed to extra obligations to the EU.
Alyona Getmanchuk is director of the Institute of World Policy in Kyiv.
