The outcome of the next French presidential election scheduled for April 10 could have a major impact on international affairs and the balance of political forces in Europe and the Western world. While Russia keeps its fingers crossed, Ukraine and its friends have cause for concern and should be following French politics more closely.
Russian influence in the 2017 French presidential election
In December 2019, Le Monde revealed that the origin of the “hack and leak” episode during the 2017 French presidential election, which became known as “Macron Leaks”, could be traced to Russian military intelligence.
Just before the second round of the election, several thousand documents and emails from Emmanuel Macron’s Republic on the Move (La République En Marche) party were pirated and widely disseminated on the internet and through social media. As with the Brexit referendum and the election of Donald Trump, the French campaign of 2017 was affected by Russian interference, but unlike the US and the UK, France managed to maintain its democratic integrity.
Two structures in particular played key protective roles: The National Commission for the Control of Electoral Campaigns for Presidential Elections (NCCCPE) and the National Information Systems Security Agency (NISSA). According to Heather Conley, the US Deputy Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs, French institutions are better able to protect the integrity of elections than those in the United States:
“The Elections are fought on a state level, with federal supervision. The protection of critical infrastructures – like the electoral system – is guaranteed by the Department of Homeland Security, but it must cooperate with individual states and they each have their ways of doing things. France, on the other hand, has a centralized system of surveillance.”
During a press conference at Versailles, less than a month after the election, Macron openly accused Russia Today (RT) and Sputnik of having been organs of influence and propaganda during the campaign. RT and Sputnik had kept a close eye on the presidential campaign and warned the Kremlin about the popularity of the pro-European Macron. On Russian TV, one nationalist leader had even promised: “to get Marine Le Pen elected.”
Russian threat to the 2022 French presidential election
Marine Le Pen (polling 16.5%) Jean-Luc Mélenchon (polling 9.5%) and Éric Zemmour (polling 13.5%) have entered the presidential race. It would be interesting to imagine what the policy toward Moscow would be if any of these candidates were to win. Despite their differences, all these candidates have a common desire to reject the hardline stance towards Russia adopted by France and the EU.
They all express respect for Vladimir Putin and advocate a significant rapprochement between Paris and the Kremlin. They are developing a position already adopted by François Fillon, the centre-right candidate in the last presidential election. Fillon was recently appointed to the board of Sibur – a Russian petrochemicals company largely controlled by the richest people in Russia and those closest to Vladimir Putin.
Many in France remain fascinated with Putinism.
In 2018, 27% of French people had a good opinion of the head of the Russian State, but that rate increases to 35% among Republican sympathizers and 50% among members of the French National Front.
These opinions rest on a particular understanding of recent history, in which Russia is seen to have emerged from the cold war vanquished and ready for peace, only to be humiliated by the West, surrounded by threats with NATO being notable among them. Far from being an aggressor, Russia is seen as a victim of an Anglo-Saxon plot to prevent the union of the European continent.
Withdrawing French troops from the Baltics
Other possible measures of appeasement towards Russia might include the withdrawal of French troops from the Baltic States; deployed in 2014 under NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence (EFP) as a reaction to Russia’s invasion and annexation of Crimea. Such a move may have a significant impact on Moscow, but it would cause great harm to Eastern European stability. Old Soviet satellites (Romania, the Czech Republic) and former Soviet Republics (the Baltic States) would see such measures as a confirmation of suspicions of complacency towards Russia – suspicions which are regularly strengthened whenever the current Franco-Russian dialogue policy is mentioned.
Some catastrophic diplomatic moves are easy to imagine. One such example would be the unilateral recognition by France of the annexation of Crimea. Apart from trampling on the European consensus and forever spoiling relations with Ukraine, this decision would contravene the international laws that France defends – notably in respect to the sovereignty of states, but also concerning non-interference in domestic affairs. It would isolate France from the western camp and also from the General Assembly of the UN which has repeatedly condemned the use of force to redefine international frontiers – for example in December 2020, in a resolution adopted by 63 countries with 17 countries voting against and 63 abstaining.
Concessions to Russia around the world
In Syria, Paris could reconnect with Bashar Al-Assad – a new position that would break with the policy of ‘diplomacy based on values’ which, for better or worse, has anchored Paris to the Western camp since 2011. With regard to Iran, France could also leave that camp in support of Russia, Tehran’s traditional partner, by ignoring the goal of nuclear non-proliferation.
In Africa, we could welcome the Russian presence in the Central African Republic and even invite Wagner mercenaries to replace us in Mali. Apart from the loss of influence that such policies would cause, we would also lose the support of Europe and, what is more, that of the USA.
Putin’s ‘useful idiots’ in far-left and far-right politics
France is not the only European country with populist parties voicing affection for Moscow. There is the AfD in Germany, The League in Italy and the FPE in Austria, among others. In addition to political similarities, the extreme right has shared ideals – that of a white Europe stretching from London to Vladivostok. Russia presents a good illustration of the type of regime and society that the right would like to create. We need not even mention the financial support given to certain political parties like Le Pen’s National Front.
The populism of the left has a different explanation. The fascination with Russia is nothing more than a historical anti-American sentiment that follows the logic of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.” Populist logic will always side with Moscow over Washington because it is an easy way to maintain the image of a rebel on the international stage in a predominantly pro-American Europe.
The extreme right, historically pro-American in the face of the USSR, has gradually reversed its position. NATO is now seen as a threat to national sovereignty. The USA has become the enemy and Russia is the ally of those seeking independence.
Anti-EU sentiment
Above all, the populism of both the left and right have found a new culprit far away from the Cold War – the European Union – again a question of sovereignty. For the populists, Brussels is the cause of numerous national problems. Russia maintains the tension with Europe, demonstrating its anti-European stance. An anti-Brussels position has become easier to sell in France with the arrival of a pro-European president like Emmanuel Macron. It is not so much about populists’ love of Russia as about having a handy pretext to attack those the populists hate.
The French presidential election is the most important election for the western world in 2022 and much depends on its results: the alliance with the USA, NATO effectiveness, the future of the EU, the future of Ukraine. Most of all, it is our western democracies that are in danger. A new bipolarity is taking shape – the democratic regimes against those that are authoritarian. It will be a fight to the death because, if our democracies favour humanist values and dialogue, authoritarian regimes and dictators only favour force.
Professor (h.c.) Olivier Védrine, political scientist, journalist, writer, chief editor of Russian Monitor https://rusmonitor.com/, member of the Steering Committee of the Association Jean Monnet
