Late last year, the highly anticipated Normandy Format meeting took place in Paris. Despite the Franco-German push, Ukraine did not back down and rejected the federalist proposal. Kyiv was able to score a little win, namely a prisoner exchange and an extension of the armistice. From Moscow’s point of view, the summit was a far cry from success.
During the latest Munich Security Conference, a supposedly expert conflict resolution proposal surfaced on the internet. Unfortunately, it was radically pro-Russian. In consequence, Kyiv and the international community turned it down.
The two serious incidents, that took place in the Donbas on Feb. 18, were seemingly Russia’s response to its diplomatic failures. Russian air force breached Ukrainian airspace. Kremlin-based separatists moved against Ukrainian lines, employing the use of heavy weaponry. Ukraine’s military suffered a loss of life and several injuries. Obviously, the aggression was payback for Russian diplomacy’s defeat. It was also a show of force and a reminder who was pulling the strings in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. It might have also been a recon mission and a test of Europe’s diplomatic response to potential escalation. Russian’s call it “podgotovka.”
The Kremlin has been trying to feel what the vibes are in Western Europe. Russia is aware that there’s widespread fatigue related to the conflict. Moscow can also hear the calls for the lifting of the sanctions and enabling the return of lucrative business deals. In addition to the so-called expert peace proposals, high-level political recommendations are beginning to emerge. They can be summarized as pleas against Russia’s supposed isolation, the creation of new platforms for dialogue and getting back to business as usual. No other than French President Emmanuel Macron, advocated for the above at the Munich Security Conference. Similar voices can be heard coming from Berlin and Paris. Sometimes, even from Budapest.
The Kremlin is not being isolated and there’s no deficit of channels of communication between Moscow and the West. Following the fall of the Soviet Union, the new-born Russia was deprived of a whole range of characteristics of a superpower. Still, it has remained to be a major global player. After all, Russia is among the 5 permanent members of the UN Security Council. It’s in the G8 and the G-20. It is being treated as a necessary participant in a number of regional conflict resolution initiatives. These include: the Middle East Peace process, the Afghan crisis, Iran’s and North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. Russia is also involved in talks about terrorism in Syria, Libya, even Venezuela. Moscow enjoys special political and economic treatment in its relations with both NATO and the European Union.
Paris and Berlin have been most vocal about the idea to lift Russian sanctions and to put an end to Moscow’s supposed isolation. The European heavyweights have both been intimately close to Russia in the field of politics, economic and military cooperation. It’s nearly impossible to list all the bilaterals. Nord Stream is an epitome of special relations in the realm of energy security. Paris has been selling its Mistral vessels to Moscow and Berlin built military headquarters in the capital’s vicinity.
If Germany and France are feeling so bad about the lack of communication with Russia, perhaps they need a quick refresher. After all, just a few years ago, they created the Normandy Format and the Minsk Peace Process. Neither of the two initiatives invited the U.S., not to mention Ukraine’s immediate neighbours, to join the elite club and solve the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. How many more channels of communication are needed then? Are there any tangible results of these initiatives, which are supposedly being carried out on behalf of entire Europe? What else do we need to finally be able to have a constructive dialogue with Moscow and a mutually beneficial security framework in Europe?
First of all, the entire West needs to finally get realistic about Russia’s approach to politics. It is necessary to take note of Russian imperialism. History lessons need to be learned in some Western capitals. After all, appeasement failed to do the trick before, when another undemocratic leader challenged the European security architecture. It was foolish then to hope that the aggressor would get satisfied and cease to conquer even more. Historia est magistra vitae. But is that really the case? Unfortunately, the opposite conclusion is more often true and it seems like the only thing, history has ever taught us, is that it never taught us anything. Especially in today’s fast-paced world.
It is absolutely necessary to stop trading security interests for temporary economic gains. European leaders cannot afford to behave like small-time merchants whose only concern is the price of Russian gas and their own goods’ on the Russian market. It is unacceptable to trade cheap oil and gas for technology and potential cooperation in the war against terror or the rivalry with China. If values and ideals mean something in Europe, they should mean something in our dealings with Russia. Double standards are a road to nowhere.
Secondly, if we get realistic about Russia and realize it is a threat to peace in Europe, there need to be consequences. Breaking international law and encroaching on the sovereignty of others must be met with relevant punitive actions. In addition, pre-emptive measures need to be taken in order to ensure such illegal actions don’t take place in the future.
NATO made the right decisions and took relevant steps toward Russia’s imperialist behaviour. At the July 2016 NATO summit in Warsaw, continued dialogue with Moscow was agreed upon. At the same time, the Alliance pledged to defend its member states, by increased military presence, and to deter potential aggression through a new defence doctrine.
The EU has been renewing its economic sanctions on a half-year basis. The results, however, have been mediocre at best, since international corporations find it easy to bypass them. Western European chain stores are alive and well in Crimea and major credit cards are being accepted. All due to the fact that their headquarters are registered in Moscow. Weakening the already mediocre sanctions will surely not encourage Russia to cooperate with the rest of the world in the field of conflict resolution.
The Franco-German proposals of another Russian reset and getting back to business, as usual, are motivated by selfish economic interests of a few European powers. They overlook what history should have taught us and the negative experience of President Barack Obama’s first infamous reset.
To put an end to Russia’s imperialism and its aggression, further sanctions and punitive measures need to be adopted. Rewarding aggression is a dead-end street. Sanctions need to impact Russian society, Russian elites, scientists, artists and athletes. The Russian society needs to pay the price for supporting Putin’s imperial regime as well as for its indifference to the Kremlin’s aggressive actions.
We cannot afford to enjoy the Bolshoi Theatre’s performance or Spartak’s impressive hockey feats while Russian soldiers are actively firing at our neighbours.
The article was originally published in Polish on Feb. 25, 2020, by Rzeczpospolita. The author is a member of the European Parliament and a former minister of foreign affairs of Poland.
