What does Europe
want?
Certainly, it
wants Ukraine to be a part of the democratic European family. Ukraine is attractive as a major market,
supplier of goods–steel, grain — and a buffer against Russia.
The EU wants
Ukraine’s regime to move on three issues.
First, end the terror of selective justice and
free ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, ex-Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko and
others.
Second, given
the questionable handling and results of its elections, more reform is needed
in electoral laws.
And third, show
momentum on the long-promised reform agenda.
In turn, Ukraine
considers European integration to be so vital that it has chosen to withstand Russia’s
considerable pressures to join its Customs Union where Belarus and Kazakhstan are
already members.
Ukraine’s absence
weakens the union and Russia means to get its way.
Lately it has
demanded the repayment of unconsumed energy costs claiming some $7 billion is owing.
Russia promises to reconsider the debt should Ukraine join. But Ukraine says it won’t pay and has retaliated
with further diversification from Russia’s energy dependency. It is negotiating an attractive natural gas
agreement with Turkmenistan. Given these
tensions, it does not surprise that recent talks in Moscow were cancelled.
Russia will
continue squeezing Ukraine into agreeing to join its Customs Union rather than
the EU’s free trade agreement but President Viktor Yanukovych has an ace in his
hand: if he frees the political prisoners, European integration will become
real.
All this drama,
with historic consequences, makes the February EU-Ukraine Summit pivotal for Ukraine
and its president.
He needs respond
favorably to demands from the West – the EU, the United States and Canada — or
it might be too late. EU’s Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Fuele
said that “we cannot wait.” In turn, Yanukovych
showed some flexibility by responding that something must be done in face of
constant criticism.
It is clear that
the West must continue convincing Ukraine’s president that by freeing the
incarcerated leaders he will free himself from a most difficult Gordian
knot.
Others have done
this. Last year, Myanmar released opposition
leader San Sui Kyi, and others, and is moving forward. However, this came about because the
democratic world maintained sustained pressure on the regime. It surprises, therefore, that some influential
diaspora organizations would have the EU sign the Agreement without the release
of the incarcerated leaders.
An EU agreement,
without a quid pro quo from the president, is seriously out of step with the
democratic world. It removes the
motivation from Ukraine’s regime to act lawfully now and in the future. It encourages rogue behavior and is simply wrong. The EU has given Ukraine until November to
comply or it will be compelled to wait for another seven years before the next
opportunity comes around. Should the
president fail in this, Ukraine’s isolation from the West will increase. The immediate casualties will be the regime’s
leaders. Already there are clear
messages that U.S. President Barack Obama is not interested in meeting Yanukovych
if he continues to take Ukraine on the road of becoming another Belarus while
the U.S. Senate is considering sanctions against Ukraine’s officials.
The
government of Canada has also been clear, since the arrests of Tymoshenko and Lutsenko
some two years ago, that Ukraine must respect the rule of law and refrain from selective
justice. Writing to Canada’s Minster of Foreign Affairs earlier
this week, the Canadian Group for Democracy in Ukraine stressed that Canada, once again, “ makes diplomatic
demarches to the key parties; supporting the great value of the Association
Agreement and the need for Ukraine to meet the EU’s conditions.” A joint statement with the United States supporting
EU’s conditions might persuade Yanukovych to use his ace keeping in mind that
he game ends on Feb 25.
Oksana
Bashuk Hepburn is columnist and member of the Canadian Group for Democracy in
Ukraine.
