In mid-July in Batumi, the presidents of Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine confirmed the functioning of the Associated Trio, created by the foreign ministers of the three countries in May 2021. In the presence of European Council President Charles Michel, the leaders of the three countries stressed their commitment to the idea of European integration.
Recently, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on the pages of Foreign Affairs stressed the need to abandon the concept of “post-Soviet space.” Indeed, the fate of the 15 republics that made up the Soviet Union is too different. Ukraine demonstrates a desire to become a member of the West, but there are many obstacles in its path.
In Batumi, President Volodymyr Zelensky called on the European Union to be bolder in its relations with members of the Eastern Partnership seeking European integration. Otherwise, there is a great threat that Russia will “show its steel muscles.” The Kremlin – and this is worth speaking about openly – has a powerful arsenal of diverse influence not only on the former satellites but also on the political elite of the Old World. Therefore, European integration in the current conditions is a leap above the head, a real marathon of difficult terrain along with other participants.
Representatives of the Western Balkans are already in line to join the EU, and their prospect of joining the EU is more realistic. At first glance, the Associated Trio is helped by the fact that each country has a parliamentary majority that is ready to work on the same note as the president. However, politics remains unpredictable. For example, last week the ruling Georgian Dream withdrew from the “Michel Agreement” it signed a few months ago with opposition members. This means that the political crisis in Georgia will continue.
Meanwhile, a new government is emerging in Moldova, aimed at President Maya Sandu, as well as the parliament with the PAS party having the majority of the votes. After winning the presidential race over Igor Dodon, Sandu pursued early parliamentary elections, won by her supporters. Moldova will at least try to accelerate as much as possible its struggle against corruption and fight for reforms, relying on both its forces and Romania’s support.
What does Ukraine answer?
Did the parliament go on vacation without ensuring the organization of an extraordinary meeting on Aug. 23, which should be dedicated to the Crimean platform?
I think it will be held, but organizational issues matter. The appearance in Ukraine of Judge Mykola Chaus, who was abducted in Moldova in early April, the assassination of Belarusian opposition leader Vitaliy Shishov in Kyiv, and the scandalous statements by Servant of the People leader Davyd Arakhamia are all components of the country’s political landscape ahead of the 30th anniversary of Independence. The so-called “anti-oligarchic” draft bill in the fall is likely to become a tool to find the culprits among those who do not want to seek an understanding with President Zelensky.
European integration is a complex process, it is not enough for one or more countries to declare their desire to become members of the EU. The logic of the Associated Trio is clear and acceptable, but the declaration itself is not enough. We must strive to meet the requirements of the EU as much as possible daily, implement reforms and treat our partners with respect. Ukraine will have to solve these problems at the same time if it wants to leave forever the gray zone that Russia is trying to create on its border.
Yevhen Mahda is the director of the Institute of World Policy in Kyiv.
