Every Ukrainian president has regarded a meeting in the White House with the American president as almost the Holy Grail of diplomatic achievement.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky is no different from his predecessors in that respect and seems keen to meet his U.S. opposite number, Donald Trump.
But in this situation, the saying “be careful what you wish for” springs uncomfortably to mind and Zelensky may be walking into something of a trap in Washington, or at least an unpalatable outcome for Ukraine.
Washington’s backing for Kyiv has been invaluable since Ukraine’s independence and has become yet more important since Russia’s 2014 invasion. America has taken the lead in imposing sanctions against Moscow and has provided Ukraine with tremendous economic, military (including lethal weapons) and diplomatic support.
Trump has never made an unequivocal declaration of support for Ukraine since the Russian invasion and during the continuing war against pro-Moscow military forces in the east of the country.
In fact, quite to the contrary, he has repeatedly, the last time only this week, suggested that the G7 group of the world’s wealthiest countries readmit Russia to their club thereby ignoring the reasons she was slung out – armed aggression against Ukraine and the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. He has even suggested Crimea is Russian.
Trump has wriggled out of admitting that Russia devoted huge efforts to internet hacking, social media subterfuge, and other means to influence the 2016 presidential election in his favor. He has publicly supported the Kremlin denials about election interference and dismissed evidence presented by U.S. intelligence agencies and experts.
Trump is unhappy with sanctions punishing Moscow for crimes in Ukraine and elsewhere – such as the use of military nerve agent to try to kill a former Russian spy living in Britain. His first national security adviser, when Trump took office in 2017, Michael Flynn, had to leave the job in disgrace after he was caught out secretly talking to the Russian ambassador in Washington about lifting those sanctions.
Trump turns a blind eye to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s crimes against Ukraine, Syria and his own people. The U.S. Congress was so worried that Trump would lift the sanctions on Russia that it took that power out of his hands.
Trump has let the ruthless communist regime in China know he wouldn’t react if they cracked down on pro-democracy demonstrators in Hong Kong.
Trump invited Zelensky for a U.S. visit in a phone call after the latter won the April 21 presidential election in Ukraine. There is speculation Zelensky would go to Washington this fall, possibly next month.
When he visits Trump in the White House, Zelensky won’t have many good cards to play. Although I hope that Zelensky genuinely wants to deliver on his election promises to build a better and prosperous future for Ukraine and her inhabitants, I fear he hasn’t the experience or knowledge to play his weak hand well.
Trump’s eyes are on next year’s U.S. presidential race when he hopes to be re-elected. His interest in Ukraine and Zelensky is primarily connected to how they can help him achieve that ambition.
Trump is desperately searching for a foreign policy success after his theatrical attempts at a denuclearization agreement with his corpulent North Korean “friend” and tyrant, Kim Jong Un, fizzled into farce. Neither is his tariff war against China working out too well for the U.S.
And most recently his madcap plan to purchase Greenland, which initially even Trump’s supporters mistakenly believed he meant as a joke, has been laughed off stage. Sadly the “leader of the free world” was serious about it and was livid because the Danish prime minister dismissed as “absurd” Trump’s desire to buy the vast territory, which is a Danish protectorate.
In revenge, he canceled a planned visit to Denmark – a NATO ally. His juvenile petulance toward Denmark shows not only what a petty person with little concept of history and the conduct of foreign policy he is, but underscores that, for Trump, business deals override any notions about the democratic will of the people or sovereignty.
Trump makes no secret that he is keen to do business with Russia and there is abundant evidence he is willing to sacrifice Ukraine’s interests for better relations with Putin.
Trump’s throwaway comment earlier this month about assessing Zelensky as probably willing to contemplate a “peace” deal with Putin should be an alert about the direction the American president is heading.
The Ukrainian side should be wary that Trump will try to strong-arm Zelensky into concessions to Putin, for example recognizing Russia’s annexation of Crimea and agreeing to a federalization (read: proxy rule from Moscow) plan for Russian-occupied Donbas.
At the same time Trump’s obsequious personal lawyer, former New York Mayor Rudolf Giuliani, will likely renew attempts to drag the Ukrainian administration into efforts to show that under previous Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine tried to help Trump’s 2016 rival for president, Hillary Clinton. That distortion attempt to create equivalency between Russian and Ukrainian behavior is intended to obscure undeniable evidence that Russia was helping the Trump campaign, whether Trump knew or not.
Giuliani is also keen to besmirch former U.S. vice president under Barack Obama, Joe Biden, who was a good friend to Ukraine and visited the country many times during the war. Biden is currently ahead of his rivals to be the Democratic Party’s candidate in the U.S. 2020 presidential elections. He is also the person Trump seems to fear most in a presidential race and has tried to discredit.
Giuliani has accused Biden of using his influence in Ukraine to quash legal proceedings there that might have implicated his son, a former executive in a Ukrainian energy company, of wrongdoing.
There is no evidence that Biden senior ever abused his position but it would be surprising if the Trump camp doesn’t believe it can use its dominant position to extract some help from Ukraine in undermining Biden’s reputation.
Zelensky can’t now back out of meeting with Trump but perhaps Ukraine shouldn’t seem in a headlong rush to do so and doesn’t need to push for it to happen as soon as possible.
Zelensky was reportedly unprepared for his first major foreign meeting after he was elected – with the European Union leaders in Brussels.
In Brussels, he was meeting with people mostly well-disposed toward Ukraine. By comparison, the White House will be a snake pit and Zelensky and his team must tread extremely carefully.
So the question is has Zelensky advisers around him that he will listen to and are capable of foreseeing the possible snares he might face in Washington and mapping a way around them?
Zelensky must arrive at the White House with not only a wishlist of things Ukraine wants from America but with concrete deliverables of what Ukraine can do for the U.S.
But he must also be ready to evade attempts by Trump to force him into agreeing to appeasement of Russia dressed up as an illusory peace and bought at the cost of betraying those who have risked or lost their lives defending Ukraine’s freedom and nationhood.
Even though this week Trump has said that he sees himself and America as one and the same thing, they are definitely not.
Apologists for Trump claim he has done so much more for Ukraine than his predecessor, Barack Obama, and they cite the provision of Javelin anti-armor missiles.
However, it’s clear that America’s help for Ukraine has been despite Trump, not because of him.
Help has come from the U.S. politicians of all parties in Congress and officials at the Departments of State, Commerce, Energy, the Pentagon and other branches of government who recognize that American interests and values coincide with those of Ukraine.
True American patriots within Trump’s administration have shielded their country from the president’s worst ideas and have ensured that he hasn’t sacrificed Ukraine to Putin.
It is these people that Zelensky should try to impress because they exemplify the ideals and qualities that truly make America great.
