Bankers disagree on the forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate by the end of the year and call the range of Hr 26.9-28/$1, according to a survey conducted by the Interfax-Ukraine agency.
“Despite the fall in prices, the export component remains at a fairly high level. At the same time, the demand for consumer goods is falling under the influence of the increase in the incidence of COVID-19. An additional component of the inflow of foreign currency is the rates on government bonds, which attract Western investors in the long term,” Yuriy Yefremov, the director of the treasury department at Accordbank, said.
According to his forecasts, the rate by the end of the year will amount to Hr 27.20-27.25/$1.
In turn, the head of the department of personal banking services of UkrSibbank, Ihor Levchenko, expects the dollar exchange rate by the end of the year in the corridor of Hr 26.9-27.2/$1.
“Undoubtedly, an increase in the value of imports and a decrease in the value of exports leads to an imbalance of the balance of payments and significantly affects the exchange rate. The rise in energy prices is most likely a temporary phenomenon, which is aggravated with the coming of cold weather, and within a year the price of gas, oil, etc. will return to adequate levels,” the banker explained.
He added that raw materials exported from Ukraine also have a high price and somewhere correlate with energy prices. Thus, high gas prices can affect the hryvnia exchange rate, but not on a catastrophic scale.
At the same time, the chief manager for macroeconomic analysis of Raiffeisen Bank, Serhiy Kolodiy, expects that by the end of the year the hryvnia will slightly devalue and gradually move to the range of Hr 27.5-28/$1. According to him, this will be influenced by a certain deterioration in the terms of foreign trade due to a gradual increase in energy prices and a rather sharp drop in prices for iron ore.
“Wheat prices remain quite high, which, against the background of record harvests in Ukraine, contributes to the growth of exports and supports the supply of foreign currency. This was one of the main factors in the strengthening of the hryvnia in August-September,” the banker added.
The head of the analytical department of Alfa Bank, Oleksiy Blinov, also notes that changes in the external environment affect the exchange rate, in particular due to the expansion of the trade deficit.
