You're reading: Business Update – April 15: Imminent IMF aid, remittance risks, food delivery frenzy

Ukraine expects to receive the first tranche of new IMF aid within the next two weeks, according to the Presidential Office. However, the exact size of the aid package is still under discussion, Yulia Kovaliv told Reuters. The Ukrainian government has previous said it expects to receive $5 billion. Earlier, on May 7, the International Monetary Fund announced that it had reoriented negotiations with Ukraine from a larger, longer-term program to an 18-month stand-by arrangement intended to blunt the effects of the coronavirus crisis.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has extended a ban on Russian social media sites, according to a decree on the site of the Presidential Office. In May 2017, Ukraine blocked Russian social media sites VKontakte and Odnoklassniki and other popular Russian sites like Mail.ru and Yandex on the territory of Ukraine. Despite the ban, the sites have continued to be popular in Ukraine, and people use virtual private networks (VPNs) to access them.

Ukrainians have spent 80% more on food delivery during quarantine in March and April than in the previous two months, Interfax Ukraine reported citing data from Bank Pivdenny. The bank’s clients also spent 80% less on clothing and shoes during March and April. According to Pivdenny’s statistics, spending on medicines has returned to pre-quarantine levels after rising by 34% in March.

Experts predict a 30% decrease in remittances from Poland. This estimate comes from a webinar that the CASE Ukraine think tank held with colleagues in Poland. Polish economists believe that 12% of Ukrainian migrant workers left Poland during the quarantine, but that the actual figure is likely higher if one counts seasonal workers. If the level of unemployment in Poland rises above 10%, Ukrainians will struggle to find long-term work there, leading to the potential 30% drop in remittances, Polish economist Lukasz Kozlowski said, according to a statement by CASE Ukraine. Every year, roughly 2 million Ukrainians go to work in Poland. In 2019, they sent $12.9 billion home.

Ukrainian esports startup eForce has received investment from Russian company Tribuna.ua, the AIN news site reported. Founded in 2019, eForce is a mobile app that allows users in Ukraine and post-Soviet countries to follow statistics and match results from games like Dota2 and Counter Strike: Global Offensive. It has an audience of 100,000 unique users a month. The volume of Tribuna.ua’s investment has not been disclosed. By gaining access to Tribuna.ua content and data, eForce hopes to increase its audience and profits. Since the COVID-19 pandemic has cancelled most major sporting events, esports viewership is reaching an all-time high and Ukrainian teams are reaping the benefits.

Ukraine’s GDP fell by 1.5% in Q1 of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019, according to the State Statistics Service. That’s worse than the National Bank of Ukraine’s earlier estimate (-0.5%) and that of the economy ministry (-1.2%), the Business Censor publication reported.

Imports fall faster than exports, decreasing Ukraine’s trade deficit. In Q1 2020, exports of goods and services decreased by 0.3% to 14.68 billion. Meanwhile, imports fell by 3.1% to $14.69 billion. As a result, the country’s negative trade balance fell to $9.4 million. During Q1 2019, it was $437.9 million, the Business Censor publication reported.

State regulations on some food prices will come into force on May 18 until the end of quarantine. According to the government decree establishing the regulations, grocery sellers will be obligated to declare increases to retail prices of 5% or more, UNIAN reported citing Ukraine’s state consumer protection service. If the increase is 5-10%, the price can only be changed three days after the declaration. From 10-15%, it can only be changed after 15 days. At 15% or above, the new price can only be applied after 30 days. The regulations apply to “socially significant” groceries like chicken, eggs, some breads, milk, buckwheat, flour, butter, noodles and more.

Ukraine has exported 52.2 million tons of grain and legumes since the start of the 2019-2020 marketing year, Interfax Ukraine reported. That includes 19.68 million tons of wheat, 27.31 tons of corn and 4.78 million tons of barley, as well as over 306,000 tons of flour. The marketing year lasts from July to June. In the previous marketing year, Ukraine exported 50 million tons.

The National Bank of Ukraine purchased $161.5 million on the foreign exchange market on May 12-15, the Ekonomichna Pravda news site reported, citing the NBU site.