Ukraine’s current economic downturn will peak in the second quarter of this year the National Bank of Ukraine predicted in a statement issued on May 19. The forecast aligns with similar predictions for other countries where regulators, governments and experts have broadly predicted that gradual economic recovery will start in the third and fourth quarter, but will last well into 2021. Ukraine’s gross domestic product is expected to shrink by anywhere between 3-9% this year before starting to bounce back, analysts and officials have predicted.
The NBU noted that the Ukrainian labor market has been hit hard by lockdown measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The bank said that the economic downturn was being driven by lots of workers being made redundant or placed on unpaid leave while many companies had stopped hiring. The NBU predicted that the level of unemployment should revert to its previous level at some point in 2021.
Ukrainian banks have so far issued 462 small business loans worth $10.7 million under a new affordable credit scheme. In the last three months the Affordable Loans 5-7-9% program has lent 283.5 million hryvnia, the Ministry of Finance said on its website, with 57% of the loans going to farmers. The lending scheme is named after the level of interest available on the loans. The partner banks of the government fund are state-owned lenders Ukrgasbank, Oschadbank, PrivatBank and Ukreximbank, as well as Bank Lviv, FUIB, Alliance Bank, Raiffeisen Bank Aval, TAScombank, Vostok Bank and Kredobank.
Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has predicted the resumption of air travel in June but has not made any promises. Intercity travel by train and bus will be allowed in the third stage of relaxing the current COVID-19 quarantine measures. The PM said this on May 18 on the Freedom of Speech TV show on ICTV, the Ukrainian News Agency reported. According to Shmyhal, other European countries have announced the resumption of air travel no earlier than June 15.
Shmyhal said: “Intercity travel can be resumed from the third stage… air travel, including international, will probably resume in June. But it is necessary that air travel be resumed with those countries where to fly.” Currently, it’s planned that the current quarantine measures that are in force in Ukraine will be lifted by the government in four more stages on May 22, June 1, June 10 and June 21.
On May 22 the country will shift to a more flexible lockdown that can be intensified locally if there are more outbreaks of the coronavirus, Shmyhal has confirmed. “Lockdown will be extended but, as we promised, we will move to adaptive lockdown. Therefore, a number of lockdown relaxations will be adopted as early as the 22nd [of May].”
Four airlines have already announced their intention to resume flights to Ukraine in June and July, Avianews.com reports. Czech Airlines, Lufthansa, Swiss, and Wizz Air will be among the first carriers to start serving Ukrainian routes again. Avianews reported: “The airlines gradually announce their plans to resume flights to Ukraine… The presence of a flight on the list does not mean that it will be operated… [as] airlines declare their desire to fly on specific routes, but countries may maintain restrictions on flights.”
Ukraine and Georgia may resume regular passenger flights from July, Minister of Infrastructure Vladislav Krikli has said. The minister announced the readiness of Georgia to open its borders for regular international flights from July 1, 2020. “Georgia is preparing to open its borders for scheduled international flights from July 1. We are ready to act quickly and synchronously to resume regular passenger flights,” Krikli said, as reported by Censor.net. Georgia has reported only one new case of COVID-19 in the past 24 hours, with the overall tally in the country of 3.7 million reaching 702, the country’s health ministry confirmed.
Kyiv police have busted an alleged criminal gang that they say was defrauding stock market investors online to the tune of $50,000 a month. Kyiv Cyber Police said they had discovered the online fraudsters who pretended to be brokers but were actually pocketing the investments into crypto currency wallets. The shady brokerage company, which police say was actually a criminal scheme, employed 40 people at an office in the capital. The company’s office was searched and detectives seized more than 80 computers, mobile phones and storage devices. If convicted the suspected fraudsters face up to 12 years in prison.
