J.P. Morgan expects a 5.1% decline in Ukraine’s GDP in 2020. This decline aligns with predictions of the National Bank of Ukraine, which said it would be 5%. The state budget for 2020, in turn, predicts a 4.8% decrease. In 2021, however, Ukraine’s economy will grow by 6.3%, J.P. Morgan predicted.
The hryvnia will weaken to Hr 29.5 per $1 by September, J.P. Morgan said. In 2021, the exchange rate will be Hr 29 per $1. At the moment, the rate is Hr 26.8 per $1.
Ukraine’s GDP has already fallen by 1.2% in the first quarter of 2020, the economy ministry stated. Earlier, the ministry forecasted that GDP would decrease by 0.9%. The ministry attributed this to problems with logistics and a decline in demand for industrial and agricultural goods in the world due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Ukraine wants deeper trade with the EU. The government hopes for deeper cooperation with the European Union and wants to review the current association agreement, Deputy Prime Minister Vadym Prystaiko said. “Most of the quotas that are set, they no longer suit us…” he said. “I hope that we will revise them.” Deeper cooperation is possible in the digital sphere, customs and defense issues, according to Prystaiko.
EBRD: Ukraine can only benefit from free trade, while protectionism brings benefits only to oligarchs, Dimitar Bogov, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s leading economist in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus, said. Bogov also said that if Ukrainian exporters want to have unrestricted access to foreign markets, then, first of all, Ukraine shouldn’t limit foreign companies’ access to the domestic market and foster competition with them here. “We need to make domestic companies more competitive at home,” Bogov said.
Citibank Ukraine sees net profit rise by $70,000 in January–March. The Ukrainian branch of the U.S. bank has made roughly $15 million over the first three months of 2020, which is 0.5% ($70,000) more than during the same period in 2019. Citibank ranked 13th among 75 banks operating in the country in terms of total assets – roughly $1.2 billion, according to the central bank.
UkrOboronProm has supplied Ukraine with 300 armored vehicles in January–May. The state defense production concern has already transferred all these new, restored and modernized armored vehicles to the defense ministry, UkrOboronProm Deputy Director Ihor Fomenko said. The concern fulfilled a plan to produce more than $63 million, 250% growth compared to the same period last year, according to Fomenko.
Ukraine will produce less steel in 2020. The metallurgical enterprises of Ukraine have cut their original annual production forecast for this year by 7% – to 20 million tons of steel. Almost all of it is usually exported: In 2019, the country exported 20.8 million tons of steel. Ukraine is the world’s 13th largest producer of steel as of 2018. The U.S. is the fourth, producing 86 million tons annually, but China produces the most – 928 million tons. In total, Ukraine’s metallurgical industry account for 30% of the country’s exports and 12% of its GDP, according to publication UkrMetalurhProm.
The founders of online bank Monobank may roll out a similar bank in another emerging market, according ex-Cabinet Minister Dmytro Dubilet, one of the founders. “To do this, we need to find a bank that works in this market and is ready to launch a joint venture,” he said. The founders are interested in India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Egypt, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia and Singapore. Founded in November 2017, the bank has 2.2 million users.
Zakarpattia Oblast will repair a record amount of roads this year. Despite the quarantine restrictions, Ukraine will have 370 kilometers of roads repaired by 2021 in Zakarpattia Oblast in western Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
