Ukraine’s economy had been gradually growing since 2016, but then the pandemic came.
Because of the coronavirus restrictions that hit many businesses, the country’s gross domestic product fell by 4% last year compared to 2019, the State Statistics Service reports.
According to the official data, the nominal GDP in 2020 was around $150 billion and $3,600 per capita. In 2019, it was $144 billion and $3,400 per capita. The nominal GDP can increase while the actual one is falling: state inflation is the reason.
The economy contracted by 1.2% in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019, continuing to shrink by 11.2% in the second quarter when Ukraine introduced its first lockdown in March-May 2020. The economy continued to shrink by 3.5% in the third quarter, and by 0.5% in the fourth.
Before the coronavirus crisis, the Ukrainian economy maintained a gradual growth from 2016 through 2019 after a sharp decline in 2014 and 2015 that followed the EuroMaidan revolution that ousted former President Viktor Yanukovych, as well as Russia’s invasion of Crimea and the Donbas.
Just five months ago, in October, the World Bank predicted Ukraine’s GDP to decline by 5.5% in 2020 but expected the Ukrainian economy to rebound by 1.5% in 2021 and by 3.1% in 2022.
Ukraine’s government seems to be more optimistic: the Ministry of Finance expects the Ukrainian economy to grow by 4.6% in 2021.
However, the sharp growth in the number of COVID-19 cases in Ukraine sends an alarming signal. Eight oblasts and the capital have imposed strict quarantine measures as the country heads into the third wave of the pandemic.
