After five consecutive quarters of economic decline, Ukraine’s gross domestic product will increase by 10% in the second quarter of 2021 if the government keeps easing coronavirus lockdown restrictions, a recent poll shows.
According to a Feb. 5 forecast by Ukrainian analysts polled by British news agency Reuters, gross domestic product will decline by 0.5% in January–March compared to the same period last year, but then, it will see a 10.2% increase in April–June.
Overall, 12 analysts expect the local economy to grow by 4% in 2021.
In the second quarter of 2020, the Ukrainian economy shrank by 11.4% compared to the same period in 2019. Ukraine imposed strict COVID-19 quarantine measures in mid-March, forcing all non-essential businesses to shut down until the end of May.
Higher activity in the agriculture and real estate industries in the spring is likely to help the economy rebound, analysts said.
Experts from the National Bank of Ukraine seem to agree with this prognosis. The NBU expects the economy to grow by 11.3% during the second quarter of 2021. By the end of the year, the bank predicts GDP to grow by 4.2%.
The bank also expects Ukraine’s GDP to increase by 3.5% and 2.6% in July–September and October–December 2021.
The economy shrank by 4.4% in 2020.
Ukraine’s economic recovery will be influenced by the investment activity and the world’s economic growth in 2021.
Ukraine has just come out of its third full lockdown from Jan. 8 through Jan. 24. During the lockdown, businesses like restaurants, theaters and sports clubs were closed.
Ukraine is still enforcing quarantine measures and will continue to do so at least until April 30, according to Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. Mass gatherings, including university classes are banned. Bars, clubs and other businesses can work only until 11 p.m.
