When U. S. President Joe Biden appointed Amos Hochstein as a high-level energy security adviser on Aug. 9, some experts were shocked.
The 48-year-old diplomat has been a vocal critic of Russia’s $11 billion Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany. After pressure from Germany, Biden’s administration recently decided to waive sanctions on the project and let the 1,230-kilometer pipeline under the Baltic Sea be completed, to Ukraine’s detriment.
Hochstein has just been put in charge of reducing risks posed by the project, which the Biden administration called Russia’s “geopolitical weapon.”
Responses to the appointment were all across the board. Some analysts believe Hochstein can make the best of a bad situation while others believe he was only hired for show, to legitimize Biden’s controversial decision.
Timothy Ash, an emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, sees Hochstein’s appointment as “window dressing,” Biden’s attempt to appease critics of his decision to appease Berlin and the Kremlin.
“It looks like that horse has bolted. It is not serious,” Ash told the Kyiv Post.
“He (Biden) has shown that Emerging Europe is a low priority and he is willing to sell out their interests for a quiet life with (Vladimir) Putin, while the U.S. gets on with Covid, China and Climate.”
For him, Biden’s move was a surprise, but he cannot understand why Hochstein, who believes the project is an ìexistential crisis facing Ukraine, is “willing to play along.”
Hochstein, who stepped down from the supervisory board of the Ukrainian state oil and gas giant Naftogaz in 2020 claiming “increasing sabotage from corrupt forces” in the country, did not respond to a request for comment.
Svitlana Zalishchuk, a former lawmaker and current adviser to Naftogaz CEO Yuriy Vitrenko, said it’s too early to draw conclusions about Hochstein’s new role.
“Through this appointment, the American administration is trying to send a signal to Ukraine, Germany, Europe, Russia, and not least to its own Congress, that the full stop has not been put in this process yet,” said Zalishchuk.
As soon as the pipeline under the Baltic Sea is ready, Russiaís state-owned gas company Gazprom will be able to double the gas supply directly to Germany, Europe’s biggest gas consumer.
It will kill the need to use Ukraineís gas transport system, costing the nation at least $1.5 billion a year in transit fees.
Still, Berlin promised to appoint a special envoy to ensure that the gas transit agreement with Ukraine is extended until 2034, Politico reported on July 22.
Some experts are sanguine about what Hochstein can do for Ukraine.
“The message is clear: the US is ready to discuss real steps to counter Russia together,” said Lana Zerkal, former deputy foreign minister of Ukraine.
In an op-ed co-authored by ex-ambassadors Daniel Fried, Richard L. Morningstar and Andras Simonyi for the Atlantic Council, the authors called the Biden administration’s a “welcome development.”
They wrote: “He the right person to oversee the implementation of the joint statementís best provisions.”
Andriy Favorov, former head of the Naftogaz gas division, said the appointment is a victory.
“Amos is a great ally of Ukraine, he knows the country very well, and he is a very close person to Bidenís administration,” said Favorov. “He is trusted in the White House, in Berlin, and in Ukraine.”
Among all four candidates for the energy envoy position, Hochstein was the best one for Ukraine’s interests, Favorov believes.
“Tough negotiations are ahead, but it is difficult to imagine a more qualified person than Amos for this,” he said. “He is now the main energy diplomat in Europe. It’s a big role that only a person with big ambitions can handle.”
