The German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF), a U.S. government-sponsored think tank, on Aug. 18 held an expert discussion on the ongoing protests in Belarus.
The Marshall Fund gathered local journalists, activists, and foreign observers to discuss what is happening on the ground and assess the international reaction that followed.
According to the experts, the European Union should step up in its support of Belarusians fighting for their freedom, while the United States should follow Europe’s lead.
“For a country that poses itself as a supporter of freedom worldwide, it shouldn’t take days to give some kind of a response,” said Joerg Forbrig, GMF’s director for Central and Eastern Europe.
Protests in Belarus have been on the covers of international papers since Aug. 9, when the local dictator tried to steal an election and the people resisted.
Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko was declared the winner of the presidential race, yet an independent count showed opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya to be the actual winner, provoking widespread anger.
The fraudulent election led to the largest protests in the country’s history and some brutal crackdowns on peaceful demonstrators. Protesters were viciously assaulted by riot police and faced torture while in detention.
After 10 days of protests, opposition supporters “find themselves in a deadlock” says Belarus journalist Kanstantin Lashkevich, who took part in the Marshall Fund’s discussion.
The lack of political leaders that can move people’s intentions into something more concrete prolongs Lukashenko’s regime, he says.
In this situation, the main question is whether the international community is acting at its full capacity to help Belarusians in their struggle for freedom.
The short answer is no.
On Aug. 18, the foreign ministers of the EU member states stated that they won’t recognize Lukashenko’s forged electoral victory. A few days earlier, the EU member states agreed to impose personal sanctions against the Belarusian leadership.
However, Forbrig agrees that more should be done to force an authoritarian regime to crumble. Economic sanctions should be imposed and directed towards companies that bring revenue to the state.
“If you want to shift the system, you should target the material base of the regime,” says Forbrig.
“The EU isn’t ready to do this,” he adds.
Russian reaction
According to experts taking part in the discussion, it was Lukashenko who turned the peaceful Belarus protest into an international crisis.
Unlike the 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution in Ukraine, which was focused on the country’s international affiliation and deposed Kremlin-backed President Viktor Yanukovych, the protests in Belarus are focused on internal problems – unfair elections.
However, Lukashenko’s willingness to use excessive force in an attempt to crush the opposition and the invitation of Russia to intervene were decisive factors that forced the international community to react.
On Aug. 15, Lukashenko had a phone conversation with Putin. After the call, Lukashenko said that he had initiated the talks “because the situation in Belarus contains elements of external interference and is threatening Russia as well.”
A day later, Russian riot police trucks without insignia and vehicle registration plates were spotted moving toward the Belarusian border.
“It was internal until Lukashenko asked (Russian President Vladimir) Putin for help,” says Forbrig.
According to Anna Dyner, an analyst at the Polish Institute of International Affairs, Putin was waiting for the invitation.
“Russia is ready for any kind of option, even a military one,” she says. However, Dyner says that she doesn’t believe in a full-fledged Russian military operation to keep Lukashenko in power.
Dyner points out that even the Belarusian opposition maintains good relations with Russia and there is no direct reason to stick by Lukashenko.
However, Lukashenko isn’t planning to leave and is exploiting the geopolitical narrative to maintain power.
During the Aug. 18 meeting of the Security Council of Belarus, Lukashenko said that Belarusian troops on EU borders are on high alert. He once again accused the protesters of being sponsored by foreign powers.
Earlier, Lukashenko accused NATO member states, most of them EU members as well, of conspiring against Belarus.
“NATO forces are rattling with caterpillar treads… Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Ukraine demand that we hold new elections,” said Lukashenko.
Europe’s response
As a result, an extraordinary EU summit on Belarus was called for Aug. 19.
Forbrig says that the course is set toward personalized sanctions against Lukashenko and his close allies, which would be finalized by the end of the month.
The EU doesn’t have to invent anything new. Belarus’ leadership was under personal sanctions until 2016 when the EU unilaterally lifted them citing progress with the rule of law in the country.
Forbrig says that further steps should be taken to help Belarusians in their struggle for freedom, including humanitarian aid to those prosecuted by the regime and vocal demand for political prisoners to be released.
Discussing the international reaction, the speakers were low on praise toward the United States.
U.S. President Donald Trump has yet to make an official statement on the Belarus protests, which have been going on for over 10 days.
On Aug. 13, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo hinted that the U.S. can impose sanctions on Belarus. Pompeo later stated that they are discussing the situation in Belarus with the EU.
“It’s not worth to discuss the US response, as there was none,” says Forbrig.
For now, Forbrig says, the U.S. should follow the EU in imposing sanctions and drawing up measures to weaken the regime.
