The revival of Normandy Format talks this week, after a hiatus of over two years, has led to some cautious optimism that a major escalation in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, may not be inevitable.
Representatives of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany met in Paris this Wednesday for an 8-hour long dialogue involving Russian Presidential Administration Deputy Head Dmitry Kozak, the diplomatic and national security advisor to French President, Emmanuel Bonne, adviser to the German Chancellor Jens Plotner and Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak.
According to Yermak, the parties agreed on a joint communique, the first such document since 2019. He said that the parties “decided to return with new proposals in two weeks,” emphasizing that they know which differences they are dealing with.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky has described the talks as constructive.
Meanwhile, Kozak reiterated that Ukraine must communicate directly with the self-proclaimed republics in Luhansk and Donetsk oblast. Asked to comment on the Russian Duma’s proposal to supply weapons to the self-proclaimed republics, Kozak underscored that the Minsk Agreements “do not outlaw the direct support of the countries by the Normandy format participants.”
Kozak also subtly accused Kyiv of stalling the Minsk Agreement’s implementation, stating that “no dialogue is taking place” and that “Ukraine does not react to the many proposals put forward by Donbas, neither saying yes nor no.”
The next round of talks is set to take place in Berlin in two weeks’ time.
Difficult choices
The attempt to revive the format and start afresh is viewed as a bid to deter the Kremlin from escalating the conflict in the region. Russia has been amassing military troops around the Ukrainian border since last fall and is preparing to carry out joint military training with neighboring Belarus, headed by pro-Russian Alexander Lukashenka.
The talks were followed by the U.S. Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken’s, announcement that Washington provided a formal response to Russia’s ultimatums addressed toward NATO and the U.S. that include demands such as the Alliance’s commitment not to expand further or grant membership to Ukraine and Georgia.
While official Washington has not disclosed the details of the written reply, it has made it clear that key Russia’s demands are “non-starters.”
NATO has likewise provided a written reply, rejecting Russia’s ultimatums and offered Moscow a de-escalation plan.
The ongoing talks in different formats and arenas are regarded as Russia’s attempt to reinvent its geopolitical role in Europe at large. In private talks some western officials have underscored that Ukraine is something of a convenient excuse for Russia to do that, using the well-known “mantra of humiliation” Russia experienced following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
In doing so, however, Russia faces many obstacles, among which its relatively weak (compared to leading western states at least or its big neighbor China) economy is the chief one. A deeply oligarchic and hierarchical state, Russia remains to be largely dependent on the export of crude materials like gas and oil.
By continuing to attempt to re-establish its political influence in the region and revive the Cold War concepts of “spheres of influence”, it faces difficult choices and risks undermining the future of its pet project – the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
Although the U.S. and Germany gave the green light to the completion of the pipeline in mid summer,—a fact that could have well bolstered Russia’s current political decisiveness—officials in Washington and Berlin are now indicating that the project will not go forward if Russia reinvades Ukraine.
In his interview with the NPR, Edward Price, Spokesperson for the United States Department of State, underscored that since gas is not currently flowing through Nord Stream 2, it is leverage for Germany, the trans-Atlantic community but not for Vladimir Putin, adding that
“if Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward, and we want to be very clear about that.“
The country’s billionaires are already taking a big loss because of the growing tensions – a circumstance that could spell trouble for political stability in the country, where occasional public protests still take place.
Kyiv, which understandably, is trying to find common ground with Russia in the Normandy Format to avoid potential full-scale conflict, likewise faces difficult choices ahead.
Some experts are warning Ukrainian officials against making concessions that would effectively undermine the situation in the country, such as the reintegration of the self-proclaimed republics. They point out that the Verkhovna Rada has withdrawn its bill to introduce a transition period for the temporarily occupied territories, a move demanded by Moscow for the talks in Paris to take place.
