“If Russia invades Ukraine again, they will be going home in coffins”, according to Ukraine’s Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov. Reznikov counts Ukrainian defence forces as 250,000 regular army, 400,000 veterans and 200,000 reservists. All are prepared to defend Ukrainian land.
At the same time, intelligence sources indicate that Russian forces presently have about 100,000 troops and heavy equipment within and near Ukraine’s borders; and this number is expected to grow to 175,000 by mid-January 2022, when President Putin may, or may not, order another invasion of Ukraine.
“I believe that Russians and Ukrainians are one people … one nation,” Russian president Vladimir Putin said in an interview. Vladislav Surkov, founder of “Putinism” and “Sovereign Democracy,” and the Kremlin official responsible for the Russian invasion of Ukraine’s Crimea and Donbas, maintains that Ukraine does not exist as a country with fixed borders; that borders can be altered.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has summarized the current state of anxiety.
“We’re deeply concerned by evidence that Russia has made plans for significant aggressive moves against Ukraine.“
"The plans include efforts to destabilize Ukraine from within, as well as large scale military operations. Now, we’ve seen this playbook before, in 2014 when Russia last invaded Ukraine. Then, as now, they significantly increased combat forces near the border. Then, as now, they intensified disinformation to paint Ukraine as the aggressor to justify pre-planned military action.”
The Secretary of State adds, “We don’t know whether President Putin has made the decision to invade. We do know that he is putting in place the capacity to do so on short order should he so decide. So, despite uncertainty about intentions and timing, we must prepare for all contingencies while working to see to it that Russia reverses course.”
Preparation for all contingencies is the reason for intensive discussions and co-ordinated agreements between Ukraine, the US, NATO, the EU, the EEAS, and allies in these past days.
Allies have agreed that President Putin needs to be left with no doubts that the costs of further invasion into Ukraine would far exceed any benefits that he might hope to gain from such a move.
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with US President Joe Biden via a video call in the Black Sea resort of Sochi on December 7, 2021. (Photo by Mikhail Metzel / SPUTNIK / AFP)
NATO Chief Jens Stoltenberg, EU Representative Josep Borrell, Ukrainian President Zelensky and Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, allies and US President Joe Biden have agreed on asserting support for the lawful sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine and to coordinate in preparing multiple economic, political and other measures to deter, de-escalate and demotivate aggressive Russian intentions, actions and illegal operations.
President Biden represented the views of allies in his most important meeting to date with the Russian President on Dec. 7. According to the White House readout, “President Biden voiced the deep concerns of the United States and our European Allies about Russia’s escalation of forces surrounding Ukraine and made clear that the U.S. and our Allies would respond with strong economic and other measures in the event of military escalation. President Biden reiterated his support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and called for de-escalation and a return to diplomacy.”
Russian news noted that Mr. Putin objected to NATO expansion eastwards, objected to the deployment of missiles near Russian borders, objected to restrictions on Kremlin “diplomats,” expressed the Kremlin interpretation that Ukraine is sabotaging the Minsk Agreement, discussed cyber security and cyber crime, and agreed to continue discussions in more detail with experts over the next weeks. No mention of de-escalating Russian forces within or near Ukraine's border was shared in public.
All allies are intensely aware that in defending Ukraine they are also defending the relatively peaceful rules-based order that we have enjoyed in much of the West since after World War II. Defending Ukraine has become a symbol of defending the “rules based” peaceful world from the advances of greedy lawless oligarchic autocracy.
President Zelenskyy, in an official statement, “expressed his gratitude for the powerful support of the United States, which systemically draws attention of the global community to the Russian military activity near Ukraine’s borders and consolidates the efforts of democratic nations to prevent escalation.”
He emphasized, “the importance of preserving a coordinated and effective sanctions pressure on the Russian Federation by the international community until the full restoration of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.” And “the importance of enhancing security cooperation that would assist in deterring Russia’s aggressive behaviour towards Ukraine.”
Such are the words and agreements of powerful supporters of Ukraine. But what are the views of ordinary Ukrainians? The answer is perhaps best expressed implicitly by the Ukrainian “babusia” (granny) street sellers who often sell toilet paper with Vladimir Putin's face printed on each sheet!
Padraig Purcell, Irish long-time pro-Ukrainian volunteer, activist, trainer and mediator.
