Talks will happen, but under Russian military pressure. What are the Kremlin’s intentions?
As media shared recent satellite images of a continuing build-up of Russian forces and heavy weapons over the Christmas period, in spite of reports that 10,000 Russian soldiers have been ordered to relocate, General Ben Hodges, former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe shared his thought on the situation on Al Jazeera on Dec. 26.
Russian policy, planning, and activity “intend to isolate Ukraine from the Black Sea and Sea of Azov.” as this would destabilise the Zelensky government and damage the Ukrainian economy, as the country’s southern ports transit a large percentage of its exports and imports, according to Hodges. He noted that Russian forces are in position and prepared to “move forward on pretty short notice.”.
What does the Kremlin want going into talks?
The Kremlin wants:
“to present Ukraine as a failed state and to prevent Ukraine from ever being able to integrate into the West, into the EU, or into NATO“
Hodges said.
“The Kremlin is deploying large numbers of troops and heavy weapons within and near Ukraine's borders in an effort to provoke Ukraine into an action that would give Kremlin hybrid forces an opportunity to use combined force, to coerce Ukraine's Western allies into giving concessions, to reduce the independence gains of former Soviet states, and to dictate the foreign policies of neighbouring nations,” said Hodges.
How can Ukraine and its Allies counter the Kremlin’s plans?
International unity around the unacceptability of utilising force to change the sovereign borders of independent nations is key to defending those borders, according to Hodges.
“Diplomacy that results in any of Russia's unrealistic demands being met, I think that's not diplomacy. That would be appeasement,” said Hodges, adding that no talks about the futures of sovereign nations should happen without the involvement of those countries.
Ukraine has strong defences in place
“The ongoing debate over the provision of military aid to Ukraine has been frequently contaminated by naïve misunderstandings of Ukrainian military and technological capabilities.” This view was expressed by veteran military expert Stephen Blank on Dec. 16 in an article titled “Military Aid for Ukraine: Deterring Russia Promptly” in Real Clear Defence.
Blank reports that Ukraine is not Afghanistan.
Ukraine has a proven ability in the design and manufacture of very advanced equipment for use on land, air and sea. Ukraine even manufactures space launch vehicles.
Currently, Ukraine is being hindered by parts supply and embargo issues, a lack of funding and a complicated bureaucracy, according to Blank. B However, it has made huge progress in the last eight years since Russian forces entered Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. While Russia still has an overall advantage, Ukraine has considerable effective defensive capabilities.
Ukraine enjoys solid international support
Additional to defensive capabilities, Ukraine has significant diplomatic, economic, technical and defensive support from the EU, U.S., NATO, the OSCE, G7, IMF, the World Bank (WB), and many others, including many members of the UN, according to multiple official statements and news reports published since the recent build-up of Kremlin forces within and near Ukraine's borders.
Allies of Ukraine have repeatedly stated that their support is oriented towards facilitating a peaceful resolution of all international situations using defence, deterrence and diplomacy as tools to bring the Russian leadership to the negotiating table to discuss peaceful resolutions.
Raising pressure before talks
Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a broadcast on Dec. 26 that he is considering various “diverse” military options if the West does not meet his demands to give security guarantees to Russia.
Putin also stated that he will talk with Ukraine in the Normandy Four Minsk peace process, but as a mediator and not as a party to the war in Donbas.
Diplomacy is the best path to peace
Ukrainian, European, NATO and US officials have said repeatedly that diplomacy is the best path to peace and understanding, and they are ready for any format of talks with the Russian Federation.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov commented that talks between Washington and Moscow to discuss security issues will take place after Russia's holiday season is over and that it wants military officials involved in its negotiations with NATO.
Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova confirmed that NATO has invited Russia to talks at the NATO-Russia Council on Jan. 12, and they are considering the offer.
A NATO official who does not wish to be identified has confirmed that NATO is in contact with the Kremlin in relation to arranging and agreeing on a date.
Allies of Ukraine all agree that no discussions will be conducted without its involvement.
