Belarusian diaspora groups around the world are stepping up efforts to help their compatriots as the West follows the unfolding of events in Belarus.
Belarus, a nation of 9.5 million people that has a long border with Russia, has been gripped by a mass uprising since Aug. 9, when a flawed presidential election sparked nationwide protests against the dictatorial rule of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
On Aug. 21, the Ukrainian Canadian Congress hosted a special webinar briefing on the situation in Belarus with Alena Liavonchanka, head of the Belarusian Canadian Alliance; Roman Waschuk, former Canadian zmbassador to Ukraine; Alexander Lanoszka, an assistant political science professor and fellow at the Balsille School of International Affairs at the University of Waterloo; Olga Onuch, associate professor and senior lecturer in politics at University of Manchester.
Liavonchanka called on the West to support Belarus. “If we turn our backs now then the doors of Gulag will slam shut,” she said. “It’s Nazism in Belarus.”
Liavonchanka is worried about workers who face direct threats for participating in the protests and could potentially be fired. These reversals highlight the vulnerability of Belarusian workers in a country where there are no independent trade unions.
But as the second week of the protests draws to a close, she says it is encouraging to know that people around the world stand with Belarus “morally and financially.”
“If I can describe the situation in three words, I’d say ‘fear, pride, and anger’ – that’s what we feel at the moment,” Liavonchanka said during the briefing after over 6,000 of her compatriots have been detained, beaten and tortured with no access to lawyers or any other help for days. According to the latest information, at least five people died, 7 others are in critical condition and over 60 people are missing. Another rally is scheduled in numerous Belarus cities over the weekend and the demands remain the same: protesters want free elections, political prisoners to be released, and Lukashenko gone.
Liavonchanka also fears Russian troops may intervene in the Belarusian crisis. “We don’t want Putin to decide for us,” she said.
Some of Belarus’ neighbors are concerned as well, especially Lithuania which shares an almost 700-kilometer border with Belarus. Even though the direct threat is unlikely to happen, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkevicius said on Aug. 17 that military assistance had openly been discussed by Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and warned that such a move could not be discounted. Lithuania is currently hosting a NATO battalion of more than 1,000 troops from Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands, a figure that would hardly be enough to stop a Russian invasion.
But Lanoszka believes that the likelihood of a Russian intervention at this time is low. “Belarus is different and, unlike in Georgia or Ukraine, there is not much direct presence of Russian military forces,” he said.
Waschuk also reminded that Canada has its military deployment on the northern border with Belarus in Latvia, another NATO and European Union member. He also warned that a change of Russia’s behavior regarding Belarus these days will change the security situation in the Baltic states.
Lanoszka also predicts that there will not be much intent from Lukashenko to seek European alignment unlike it was in Ukraine in 2004 and 2014. “The EU has little leverage regarding the Belarus situation as there’s no EU-related thing here (in terms of protests). ” The EU is not much appreciated by Moscow or Lukashenko himself so the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) might be the only alternative body to act as a mediator.
Onuch, who studies mass mobilization, sees a clear indication that the large rallies in Belarus are developing into mass mobilization. In the past weeks in Belarus, she says the working class has gone on strike, state employees turned against their employers, and even some police officers have started to “fraternize” with the opposition. Another distinctive feature of this uprising, she says, is a strong female presence which is unusual for a country where gender roles remain very traditional. She warns, however, of a lack of coordination between different groups within the protest movement leaving the opposition vulnerable to tactics of the authorities.
