Here are excerpts from a Kyiv Post interview with George Friedman, an American political scientist and founder of the Stratfor global intelligence firm and author of several books, including the bestseller, “The Next 100 Years.”
Prospects of U.S.-Ukraine relations
“U.S.-Ukraine relations will depend completely on Ukraine right now. The recent [presidential] election has produced a government which is moving away from confrontation with Moscow and moving closer to Moscow. The question is how close Ukraine will have to move. One scenario is that Ukraine remains autonomous and has bilateral relations with both Russians and with other countries.
“The second scenario is that Ukraine moves more comfortably into the Russian orbit and focuses relations on Russia. In this case, the question is whether the United States wants to be seen by the Russians as intruding in the bilateral relations, whether the United States wants to compete with Russia for Ukrainians, can it compete and whether it is in its national interests?
“Russia is looking closely at the region, particularly after the 2004 Orange Revolution. They are feeling very vulnerable. Russia had a very important reset – the reset of relations with Ukraine. The question is whether Ukrainians believe they somehow can ‘have a cake out of it and eat it too’: [meaning] to have bilateral relations with Russians and, nevertheless, cooperate with Americans too. They possibly can, but this is not the question of U.S. – Ukraine relations. It depends on Russia-Ukraine relations.”
About Ukraine’s policy
“Let’s put ourselves in the position of Russia: They saw a major neighbor whose internal politics pushed it to become part of a hostile military bloc. If I were a Russian leader, I can’t imagine how that could be in Russia’s interest. And I would have had responded.
“Ukraine expected that the U.S. would perform a miracle and provide an umbrella in case the Russians try to frighten Ukraine. Ukraine discovered this is not something that the United States can provide: It is busy elsewhere with other issues … What was possible in 1995 was not possible in 2005. The Russians achieved it.
“Now Ukrainians have to decide how many risks they are willing to take with the Russians, how much they want to resist getting closer to Moscow and what the risks are of the Russian response and possibility that Russians will temper their response to maintain good relations with the U.S. With American forces in Afghanistan and Iraq, Russians read [that] they have a window of opportunity to rectify relations not only with Ukraine, but with other former Soviet Union republics. They move rather quickly to consolidate their relationships: for instance, the union with Kazakhstan and Belarus. Will they be pressing Ukraine to become a member of it and what will that mean?
“Decisions have to be made in Kyiv. However, after the 2004 Orange Revolution, Ukrainians are engaged in fantasy about how the world works. The question is whether, at this point, the Ukrainian political system arrived at the level of maturity so it is able to sort out the relations to its best advantage or it will continue to take unrealistic positions.”
U.S. abandonment
“The national interests are not flat. There is a hierarchy, which is not arranged according to what the U.S. wants it to be, but what it is dealing with at the time.
“Now, when the U.S. is involved in the Mideast to such extent, it cannot afford confrontations with Russians: Russians can ship weapons to Iran, Syria, they can destabilize situation in Afghanistan, etc. The U.S. would not want to destabilize Ukraine-Russia relations and risk the Russian response: We have people fighting in those countries and simply cannot afford it.
“American policy would be to deny that it is making such a choice, because we cannot publicly admit it. And the simplest thing the U.S. can do is to send [U.S. Secretary of State] Hillary Clinton. It costs a few thousand dollars for the flight and hotel room. She will make few speeches, but she has nothing she can promise.”
What does Ukraine want?
“Ukrainians are always asking questions about American intentions and Russian intentions, but never about their own intentions. They are completely focused on what other players are doing. Hillary is coming and it would be good if Ukrainians try to make her interested in what they want.
“Ukrainian maturity, in which they disguise what they would want to do within the context of what it currently possible, so they make the best situation out it, just isn’t there.
“Clinton comes. Many will think it is a major event. Hillary goes many places. ‘When we can’t send troops, we send Hillary.’ For me as observer, it’s still unclear what Ukraine’s foreign policy is.
“It seems it consists of going with whatever forces seem to be more powerful and having wishes that are completely unconnected to Ukraine’s political situation or power.
“One does not notice Ukrainians thinking the following way: ‘We don’t want to fall into Russian arms. We are not going to search for help from Americans or Germans, etc.
Therefore, we are going to build our own military forces.’ This is not discussed in Ukraine.
“Ukraine expects that other countries will subordinate their national interests in order to benefit Ukraine. It is not the way the world works.”
What’s next?
“If I would form Ukraine’s foreign policy, I would suggest that it accepts the benefits of relations with Russians, while expecting an outside power partner to protect Ukraine’s economy.
This expectation is not likely to happen. The only thing that can happen is something we don’t expect, which is the united Ukrainian response: balance economic relations with Moscow and a strong political-military force. Ukraine is, after all, a major country. But then, Ukrainians do not want to spend money on military.”
U.S.-Ukraine Facts
Foreign direct investment from U.S. to Ukraine: $1.4 billion
Percent of U.S foreign direct investment into Ukraine as a percentage of nation’s total: 3.5 percent
Companies with U.S. capital on the Ukrainian market: 1,545.
Major areas of involvement: agriculture, trade and financial sector.
U.S. aid to Ukraine:more than $3 billion since 1992. The United States remains the largest foreign technical assistance donor to Ukraine; 2010 aid figure: $123 million
Bilateral trade: 2009 – $1.5 billion; 2008 – $4.75 billion
Bilateral trade with U.S. as a share of Ukraine’s overall foreign trade: 2009 – 1.8 percent; 2008 – 3.1 percent.
Independence Day
On July 4, the main American holiday– Independence Day – is celebrated. It commemorates the adoption of the Declaration of Independence on July 4, 1776, in which the nation declared its sovereignty and separation from the Kingdom of Great Britain.
Independence Day Picnic
The Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine continues the longstanding tradition of annual charitable American Independence Day Picnic in Kyiv which will be held on July 3. Events include live musical entertainment, DJs, contests, children playgrounds, fireworks, a grand raffle and, of course, tasty food and cold beverages.
When: July 3, 4 p.m.
Where: Spartak Stadium, 105 Frunze Street
More information: www.chamber.ua
Useful links:
American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine: www.chamber.ua
US embassy in Ukraine: http://ukraine.usembassy.gov/
American Councils for International Education, Kyiv http://www.americancouncilskyiv.org.ua/
USAID in Ukraine: http://ukraine.usaid.gov/
U.S. commercial service, Ukraine http://www.buyusa.gov/ukraine/en/
Kyiv Post staff writer Nataliya Bugayova can be reached at [email protected]
