Participants in 16th Kyiv Post CEO Breakfast ponder life after election (PHOTOS) - Mar. 26, 2019

While the 2019 Ukrainian presidential election campaign is still going on, participants in the 16^th Kyiv Post CEO Breakfast on March 26 decided to look ahead to what Ukraine needs – no matter who is elected president.

On these matters, a broad consensus can easily be found: a consistent pro-Western political course, sound economic policies, de-monopolization of key economic sectors, a genuine fight against corruption, more transparent elections and strong support for freedom of speech and independent media, among other steps.

A reversal in any or all of these fronts, it is feared, will disillusion foreign investors and Ukrainians alike, delivering a potentially serious setback to the nation’s progress.

The obstacles to enacting such a progressive agenda are, of course, political: Ukraine’s elected officials and government institutions are not as strong as they should be in resisting pressure from Ukraine’s oligarchs, vested interests and their supporting bureaucracies. Parliament, as a whole, is considered to be unresponsive, above the law and acting as a business club while unclear constitutional responsibilities embedded in Ukraine’s presidential-parliamentary system lead to inertia.

But there was hope expressed that like-minded people from different institutions – media, government, international organizations, and business – could form strong alliances to convince Ukraine’s politicians to act in the national interests.

Participants also underscored the need for the winner of the presidential election to move fast to unify the nation, which faces continual threats that Russia will escalate a war that has already captured 7 percent of Ukraine’s territory – Crimea and parts of the eastern Donbas – since 2014. Ukraine is also facing severe economic challenges – including the repayment of $13 billion in debt this year—that will require the next president to adopt wise economic policies to secure public and private financing to meet the obligations.

There was a debate about whether the political calendar will be a help or hindrance to needed reforms.

The presidential elections will likely require a second round of voting on April 21 if none of the three front-running candidates – President Petro Poroshenko, ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and political satirist Volodymyr Zelenskiy – win a clear majority in the initial March 31 vote among the 39 names on the ballot.

Will the next president be paralyzed by lawmakers who want to block meaningful changes until the October parliamentary elections?

Some said yes, but others said no, arguing that the new president must show positive results in the first six months of his or her term in order to win seats for his party in the parliamentary election.

A first step to unity is, of course, a presidential election whose result is seen as an honest reflection of the will of the people.

There have been numerous challenges to such a vote: Allegations of vote-buying, fears of fraud in the tabulation, restrictions that limit the participation of Ukrainians living in Russia, Ukraine’s vast population of internally displaced people from Russia’s war (an estimated 1.6 million people) and bureaucratic re-registration requirements for those who want to vote outside of the home city where they are registered.

Initial verdicts on the conduct of the election will be delivered on April 1 by the civil network Opora, which is conducting a parallel vote count, and by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s Election Observation Mission, run by the Office of Democratic Institutions and Human Rights.

A close vote may invite the possibility of divisive legal challenges to the election’s legitimacy or, even, large-scale public protests if a lot of people don’t accept the result as legitimate.

It’s also broadly acknowledged that Ukraine still has progress to make in improving representative democracy, from voter education to requiring open party lists in parliament so that voters can know exactly who they are electing.

Another glaring hole in the representative nature of Ukraine’s democracy is the lack of women in parliament.

Women make up 54 percent of Ukraine’s 44 million residents, yet make up only 12 percent of its parliamentarians (49 out of 423), according to the United Nations Development Program. This imbalance has prompted calls for quotas, at least in the short run, to get more women in decision-making roles.

Other shortcomings cited were the lack of public debates among candidates and the lack of a strong public broadcaster. Still, more attention was raised to the lack of strong sanctions to discourage illegal and non-transparent campaign financing.

There were pleas for civic responsibility: respecting differing opinions, taking the responsibility to vote, doing what you can on any scale to make the country better.

Corruption and unresponsiveness of government to creating a better investment climate remain issues. But strategies for overcoming obstacles were also defined. Those include joining business associations and talking to independent journalists to publicly expose the problems.

At Ukraine’s current rate of economic growth (2 to 3 percent yearly) from its low base of $131 billion in 2018 – $50 billion below the 2013 total – it’s been estimated that it will catch up to Germany’s current output in 100 years and Poland’s in 50 years.

One solution, of course, is to speed up economic growth which would require a massive inflow of foreign investment, which would, in turn, require the establishment of rule of law and a genuine fight against corruption.

Another solution is to shorten the timeline and scale back ambitions about what can be accomplished in the next five years, from the national scale down to a local level, even to something as simple as improving a single school. And there was sentiment that Ukrainians could apply their creativity to reach quicker solutions if united.

Another consensus point: Ukraine will survive this election – and have more.

The event was sponsored by DHL Ukraine and S&P Investment Risk Management Agency.

Kyiv Post CEO Breakfast participants included:

Vadim Sidoruk, CEO, DHL Ukraine

Nataliya Osadcha, partner S&P Investment Risk Management Agency.

Ismet Yazici, CEO, lifecell

Andriy Borovyk, CEO, Transparency International

Mohammad Zahoor, president, ISTIL Group

Lenna Koszarny, CEO, Horizon Capital

Svetlana Mikhailovska, deputy director of advocacy, European Business Association

Peter Tejler, ambassador and head of the OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission

Sergii Leshchenko, member of parliament