VIDEO
EXCLUSIVE
What is going on at the front line? Limited success of Russian offensive in the East and shortage of weapons supply. Everything will depend on their arrival. Kyiv Post’s Aleksandra Klitina interviews Viktor Tregubov – Captain of the Armed Forces, journalist, blogger, publicist, public and political figure – the co-founder of the Democratic Axe party.
[Klitina] I know that you received the rank of captain and are now on the front line. Tell us, how did a politician and journalist become a soldier? What is your motivation?
[Tregubov] I worked as a journalist most of my life, and also tried myself in IT, and then the war started in 2014. My family is from Crimea, so they stayed in the occupied territories and I went to the front.
I served in 2015-2016, received the rank of lieutenant, then decided to work with socio-political activities, and here we are again – the war. I was already a reservist. On February 24 I contacted the command to mobilize me, because there was a need for someone to fight.
[Klitina] There are different opinions in the press about the success of the Russian offensive in the east. What is the situation on the front?
[Tregubov] Russian success is very limited. A month and a half ago, the Russians had huge plans – to surround all Ukrainian troops in the east. They started from Kharkiv on one side and Mariupol on the other to close the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Regions and surround Donbas. This plan of the Russians failed, so they reduced their goals. Then the Russians tried to surround Slovyansk and Kramatorsk by cutting through Izyum [Kharkiv Region]. When that plan also failed, the Russians had to cut back on their agenda.
Today, the Russians are planning to capture Severodonetsk and yes, theoretically, they can capture this city because the Russian army concentrated a powerful force there.
The fiercest fighting is taking place in Severodonetsk, and the Russian troops have the advantage, especially in artillery. However, this is not even a minimum program, and not even one tenth of the minimum that the Russians planned for this war.
At the same time, Ukrainian forces are trying to counter-attack in other parts of the front – in Kherson, Kharkiv Regions, and even Zaporizhzhia. The situation is uncertain and the Russians have concentrated all their efforts on one tiny, specific point – Severodonetsk, and they’re moving slowly but successfully.
The Russians have a massive amount of artillery from Soviet times and a large number of shells. This is a problem, because their shelling is destroying the whole area, so Ukrainian troops are forced to retreat because they don’t have enough artillery to retaliate.
Anyway, capturing Severodonetsk is not the same as capturing Ukraine along the Dnipro River or the capture of Kyiv or Odesa, as the Russians planned at the beginning of their full-scale invasion. On the one hand, we can say that the Russians have had some success, but on the other hand, it is not success compared to their plans at the beginning of the full-scale invasion.
[Klitina] What is the balance of power? Zelensky said that one to 20 – could you confirm?
[Tregubov] I can’t say, the General Staff has complete information, but from the comments of the guys who serve directly in the artillery division in Kharkiv Region, I know that the Russians are not shooting at point-blank range because the artillery is old and their skills are worse than ours. We trained for a whole eight years since 2014, while Russian troops have a numerical advantage.
The Russians have a combination of Soviet artillery and Orlan drones – these are very cheap drones made from a seven-liter water bottle, which is used for a tank. These drones are not really effective, but there are many of them. It turns out that a missile needed to shoot down this drone is more expensive than the device itself.
Therefore, the situation is difficult. I believe that the supply of American and Western weapons – precision artillery and more long-range artillery will improve the situation.
Even this aid does not equalize the forces of both sides – because the Russians have a lot of weapons. If Ukrainian artillery were to shoot more accurately and hit targets from a long range, we would have the advantage of hitting targets from a distance and the enemy would not be able to hit us.
All the same, Russian forces will continue the offensive, but it will be much more difficult for them because Ukrainian troops will be able to hit their communication systems. Russian troops are very attached to the railway, they deliver everything by rail due to the shortage of vehicles. This is the opportunity to hit the railway junctions with artillery – it is our bet.
Of course, the effectiveness of Ukrainian forces depends on the supply of foreign weapons.
[Klitina] Can you predict how this situation will develop? Is a large-scale counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces possible?
[Tregubov] The Russian attack is already stalled, they are still achieving some of their goals, but their offensive is falling away. There is a dangerous section of the front from Severodonetsk to Popasna, but it is an operational and tactical level. The Russians are already slowing down, and this slowdown will, according to my forecasts, take place in a few more weeks.
Everything will depend on the supply of weapons. I reckon that by mid-summer Ukrainian troops will be able to conduct a large-scale counterattack and develop it in various directions. At least, I very much hope so, because the Russian army cannot concentrate its efforts on the entire front section, and it turns out that they made an advance near Donetsk but retreated near Kharkiv. They advanced near Popasna – but the line of attack in Kherson Region weakened. That is, somewhere we push, somewhere they move.
On the other hand, the Russians also have limited resources. If the West continues to help, then sooner or later we will outplay them in terms of resources, financial, technical resources.
[Klitina] Do I understand you correctly that the success of the Ukrainian army depends primarily on the supply of weapons?
[Tregubov] Yes, the main problem is that our stocks of weapons are limited because we spent them in the war that was waged from 2014, and the Russian army has also been actively attacking our arms depots, sometimes successfully. The Ukrainian army is short of artillery shells, there is also a problem with fuel, we need supplies.
The West is providing us with the necessary weapons, but rather slowly. The Ukrainian military is learning how western technology operates very quickly, much faster than planned. The Americans and British are cracking jokes that the training program is for three months, but you can handle it within a week. Western artillery is already in use and has a specific tactical place in the structure of the Ukrainian army’s actions.
However, there is a shortage of Western weapons being delivered, not because the West is so bad and does not want to supply Ukraine. European countries do not always have the ability to help. The army in European countries, just like in our country up till 2014, had a show army. Weapons that exist on paper, but in reality, this hardware can also be faulty. Countries that have weapons are providing them to Ukraine. Some states, such as Hungary, Israel, and several others, create problems.
We are trying to fight with what we have. In addition, the supply of anti-ship missiles is critical, because there is an urgent need to unblock the Black Sea from the Russians and ensure the passage of ships.
There is a risk that Russia can put intense pressure on Western countries. Due to food shortages, there will be famine in Africa, which will create additional problems for European countries.
The Russians will simply start blackmailing Europe and all this could have negative consequences for Ukraine, which is why the situation needs to be resolved. The Ukrainian army is already doing miracles – we do not have weapons, but are successfully attacking Russian ships. We have to expand this success.
[Ktilina] What is life like on the front? What is the mood of fighters? What are your impressions of what is happening?
[Tregubov] The mood is relatively combative overall. We have been fighting for a long time, and the fear that was before is now more – God, what if the Russians hit us with all their force?! The Russians are hitting with all their power, and now we understand that we can beat them successfully. At some point they were fighting even worse than eastern Ukraine separatists back in 2014.
Regular Russian troops did not have military experience here. We understand that Ukraine can win this war and we are adapting to new conditions. Of course, there are several problems – the lack of artillery and many resources, but we are confident in ourselves and in our ability to defend.
There is another problem – many people from the Territorial Defense joined the front who imagined the war differently. They are in shock – God, the Russians are shooting at us from a tank, and we are simply not used to this. There are appeals like these and Russian propaganda uses and promotes this.
The situation was the same in 2014. A year later it had changed – people who misunderstood the war and who got to the front by accident were eliminated.
We are holding on. However, there are significant losses in certain areas. My Facebook page sometimes reminds me of an obituary – one died, another one died, another one died…
However, we must understand that our actions are more effective than those of the enemy, and we are fighting one of the most powerful armies in the world. The most powerful evil in the world. We are fighting this evil much more successfully than anyone could have expected.
[Klitina] You have no fears. Are there many wounded? Is necessary help been provided? Are there civilian casualties?
[Tregubov] There are civilian casualties because the Russians are simply destroying entire cities, and to avoid this entire towns should be evacuated. Not everyone wants to leave their homes, so there is a problem. We all know what happened to Mariupol. Settlements like Popasna or Volnovakha no longer exist.
I heard this before when people talked about the Chechen war – you walk in a flat place and see a fragment, and from this fragment, you understand that it was once a district center. This is exactly what the Russians were trying to do with some settlements in Donetsk Region, and it is horrible.
Of course, there are civilian casualties and many wounded people. Our medical care for the wounded is provided on time much better than Russians do, which is why we have fewer deaths. Of course, there is a shortage of doctors, but thanks to government funding and the help of volunteers, the medical equipment used is modern. In general, the Ukrainian side values people’s lives more and provides more organized assistance to the wounded than the Russians.
The war here is an artillery war. And in this type of war there are usually huge losses. Of course, if you hit a dugout directly, it will be a bloody mess. We don’t have Spartan wars like they had in ancient times, so yes there are many victims.
[Klitina] Thank you for the interview. Stay safe!
[Tregubov] Thank you!
