A situation where Russia suddenly quits Donbas can be just as dangerous as its sudden attack.
Even though there are symptoms of war exhaustion and people getting used to the “neither war nor peace” situation, Ukrainian state and society are aware of a danger of possible military activation in eastern Ukraine. Daily news from the front line and the periodical threats from Moscow give enough reasons for the most pessimistic predictions.
The political leaders speak of Russia’s military threat all the time. What we don’t know is whether they do it to mobilize the society or to distract it from the domestic problems. At least they demonstrate their awareness and concern and are trying to improve the defense.
At the same time, almost nobody pays attention to another threat – that Russia may suddenly quit Donbas. It seems to be a remote possibility. Moreover, when Russia leads its forces out of the Donbas, the conflict itself is over. But in fact, if that happens, it can be the beginning of the next, more dangerous stage of the conflict: an internal conflict with all the elements of a civil war.
Russia may move out its people and weapons but the majority of the separatists and the volunteer fighters will stay in the Donbas. And they will have in their possession thousands of guns and other weapons.
If Russia quits Donbas, it won’t lose its role in this conflict. It will mean a mere change of priorities in Kremlin’s policy toward Donbas. The format of Russia’s presence will change, but its goal will stay the same.
So what will happen the day after Russia gets out of the Donbas and tells Kyiv: “You’ve got what you want!”?
Ukraine gets a territory with a ruined infrastructure, dotted with landmines and full of illegal weapons. There will be tens of thousands of militants that are Ukrainian citizens, as well as hundreds of thousands of family members of living and killed militants.
There shouldn’t be any doubt that Russia would make sure that it left this territory with a network of its secret agents. But even if we imagine an unbelievable situation where Russia indeed leaves for good and doesn’t interfere, we will still be facing underground resistance and high crime rates. But the main question is: Which side will the majority of people in the Donbas take when there are protests?
The first and most important piece of advice can be taken from the international experience: the people from the liberated territories should be assured that Ukrainian government is a real and strong force that would treat them much better than the separatists’ self-proclaimed state. The benefits that should be offered to the people of the Donbas should include personal safety, protection of their property, and rule of law.
All of the above shouldn’t be perceived as an attempt to question whether we need Russia to withdraw from the Donbas at all. But it is a call for a more careful comprehension of this scenario and preparation for it.
Oleksiy Melnyk is a co-director of the foreign policy and international security programs at the Razumkov Center, a Kyiv-based non-governmental public policy think tank.
Translation by Hanna Arhirova
