May is usually a spectacular month in Ukraine — a magical time when Kyiv and most of the country is neither too hot nor too cold, and people’s moods rise in step with the increasing amount of daylight. Water fountains are turned on as outdoor cafes open. And the blessed 31-day entree into summer starts with two holidays.
But this May, aside from Russia’s war, Ukraine’s fortunes turned for the better in at least six ways — besides the usual three of idyllic weather, the May 1 Labor Day holiday and the May 8–9 Day of Reconciliation and Victory Day.
Let us count the ways:
1. Macron wins
The month got off to a good start for Ukraine as 39-year-old Emmanuel Macron recorded a convincing victory in the second round of France’s presidential election on May 7. Macron looks to be a solid ally for Ukraine, having said in recent days that he does not exclude the possibility of tougher economic sanctions against Russia if it does not end its war in Ukraine’s Donbas region.
Things could have turned out much worse for Ukraine had Macron’s opponent Marine Le Pen been victorious. Having met Russian President Vladimir Putin a number of times and borrowed millions of euros from a Russian state bank, the nationalist politician Le Pen was an apologist for the Kremlin’s military invasion, even going as far as to deny its invasion and occupation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula.
2.Visa-free travel
Ten days after Macron’s victory there was more good news: On May 17, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko attended a signing ceremony at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France where it was finally confirmed that from June 11 Ukrainians will be able to travel to 34 European countries without a visa.
European nations retain the right to check the financial status and travel plans of incoming Ukrainians, as part of an effort to prevent illegal immigration into the European Union. The decision came after several years of negotiations. with Poroshenko calling the move Ukraine’s “final farewell to the Soviet and Russian empire.”
The visa-free status gives Ukrainians a huge psychological lift and is likely to prompt other nations to drop remaining visa barriers eventually. Additionally, the cost of international travel is likely to plummet as competition increases, especially among airlines, for the expected surge in Ukrainian tourists.
3.Exports up
Ukraine’s Ministry of Trade and Economic Development released new figures on May 26 showing that exports of Ukrainian goods and services reached $12.4 billion in the first quarter of 2017, an increase of 28 percent compared to the same period in 2016.
In the goods sector, the European Union was the top destination, with 38.4 percent of all Ukrainian goods exported in the first quarter of 2017 going to the 28-nation bloc.
In services, however, Russia was top, with 33.5 percent of the total volume of Ukraine’s service exports going to its eastern neighbor. According to the ministry, Ukraine exported $805.3 million worth of services to Russia, while the corresponding figure for the second-placed EU was $725.3 million.
Aleksandr Paraschiy, an analyst at financial services firm Concorde Capital, said that although the first quarter results were good for 2017, that was largely due to the low base for comparison provided by export numbers in 2016, and that export growth for the rest of the year was likely to be more modest.
Members of the Dutch Senate (the First Chamber) ratify a government bill on the ratification of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union on May 30, 2017 in The Hague.
Dutch senators backed a hard-won compromise deal May 30 to ratify an amended EU-Ukraine pact, secured from Brussels by premier Mark Rutte after Dutch voters rejected the initial version in an April 2016 referendum.
/ AFP PHOTO / ANP / Bart MAAT / Netherlands OUT
4.Free trade deal
On May 30, Dutch senators voted in favor of Ukraine’s trade and political Association Agreement with the European Union. The vote came more than a year after a referendum in the Netherlands on the EU-Ukraine deal, in which Dutch citizens rejected the pact, although the result of the referendum was non-binding. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte eventually found a compromise by convincing the EU’s 27 other nations to support a text explaining that the Association Agreement — which is already provisionally in force — does not guarantee Ukraine EU membership and does not mean Ukraine is entitled to military support, neither of which had actually been offered under the deal anyway.
Still, following the positive outcome in the Dutch Senate, EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker stated that the vote, “sends an important signal from the Netherlands and the entire European Union to our Ukrainian friends: Ukraine’s place is in Europe.”
5.Gazprom loses
A Stockholm arbitration tribunal handed Naftogaz an unexpected victory this week in a ruling that nullified claims from state-owned Russian gas giant Gazprom that Ukraine owed it $45.7 billion in unpaid gas bills; nearly half of Ukrainian gross domestic product.
Gazprom had filed suit under a 2009 contract signed by former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, which included a stipulation that Ukraine pay for gas that it did not use, under a so-called “take-or-pay” clause. Gazprom moved for arbitration against Naftogaz in June 2014, demanding that Ukraine pay for the extra gas as well as interest on the payment.
Naftogaz CEO Andriy Kobolyev celebrated the ruling in a Facebook post that played the Queen song “We Are The Champions.”
Now that Gazprom’s legal challenge has been vanquished, Kobolyev and his management team have no procedural obstacles to unbundling Naftogaz and turning the state-owned hydrocarbon monopoly into separate, competing companies, creating an open, European gas market here as a goal.
Politically, it remains unclear how that will proceed. But European Bank of Reconstruction and Development’s regional managing director, Francis Malige, said that the ruling would “enable the company to move forward on restructuring,” and that “the time to move on unbundling is now.”
6.Eurovision success
For the first two weeks of May, Kyiv successfully hosted the annual European song contest, with 64,000 people attending nine different shows and an estimated 20,000 tourists flocking to the city from abroad to take part in the festivities.
Reviews from visitors, contestants and officials were generally positive, and local businesses said Eurovision brought them more customers. For Ukraine, which budgeted $32 million for the event, it was a chance to advertise itself to the world and boost its image as more than just a country with a war in its eastern regions.
