Ukraine wondered this week, with Russian guns pointed at its face, whether the nation’s darkest hour is about to come or whether the aggressor was merely saber-rattling.
But the clouds of war seemed to lift on April 22, when Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the 100,000 Russian troops massed on Ukraine’s border back to their home bases.
Tensions eased, but for how long is anybody’s guess.
Putin is as intent as ever to subjugate Ukraine, a former Soviet republic whose status as an independent nation since 1991 he has never accepted.
After announcing the troop pullback, he agreed to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s request for talks – but on unacceptable terms.
Instead of meeting in the Donbas war zone, as Zelensky proposed, Putin suggested Moscow – but only after Zelensky meets with the Kremlin-backed forces controlling parts of eastern Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
Such a move would only play into Putin’s false propaganda that Ukraine’s conflict is a civil one and that Moscow is simply trying to mediate, instead of the reality that Russia is prosecuting the war with a combination of its own forces and local proxies.
Until the Russian troop pullback announcement, Ukraine was bracing for impact.
Zelensky on April 20 called on all Ukrainians to unite in resolve and vowed that the peaceful country would defend itself to the end, but would not strike first. He also said that while Ukraine and Russia have shared pasts, they view the future differently. Ukraine wants to become a fully democratic member of the European Union and NATO, while Russia remains an autocracy that tries to subvert democracy globally.
“Our principle is simple: Ukraine does not start war, but it always stands until the very end,” the Ukrainian leader said.
“We are not afraid, because we have our splendid army and our defenders. They are used to do their job instead of talking. They have high-quality weapons, valuable combat experience, high morale, the readiness to repel anyone and persuasively explain to any unwanted guests that (invading) our country is forbidden and impossible.”
The following day, in his annual State of the Nation speech, Putin threatened the West with punishing consequences if it dared to cross any “red lines” defined by the Kremlin itself.
Putin’s “red lines” remark followed President Emmanuel Macron’s April 18 interview in which he said the West needs to enforce its “red lines” with Putin to maintain credibility.
Without a change in Putin’s mentality – that Ukraine is in Russia’s sphere of influence – the troop pullback could prove to be more a brief respite than a victory in deterrence by the West and its Ukrainian ally.
Russian President Vladimir Putin leaves the stage after his annual state of the nation address at The Federal Assembly at The Manezh Exhibition Hall in Moscow on April 21, 2021. (AFP)
Gathering storm
The peak of the crisis came on April 19-21.
In Crimea alone, the peninsula that Russia seized by military force in 2014 and still illegally occupies, combat drills involved at least 10,000 troops, 1,200 units of weapons and armored vehicles, and over 60 warships of the Black Sea Fleet and the Caspian flotilla. Fresh satellite pictures showed fleets of Russian jet fighters and close air support aircraft deployed recently to Crimean airfields.
Ukraine’s Foreign Affairs Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on April 20 that Russia could be ready for a deeper invasion of Ukrainian territory in “several weeks.”
“One can’t predict a day and hour,” the top diplomat said during a briefing in Kyiv.
“But we clearly see Russia’s strategic preparations and military buildup. So now the deterrence… depends on Ukraine and all those who respect international law.”
The anxiety was so high that Swedish economist Anders Aslund tweeted on April 21: “What I hear from Kyiv today and yesterday is near panic. People are locating bomb shelters, storing food, and preparing for their possible evacuation by car to Western Ukraine since the borders are closed because of Covid. The prime fear is air force bombing of Kyiv, for the first time.”
However, there were no signs of panic in Kyiv. The prevalent emotion was concern and curiosity over what Putin was trying to accomplish with his show of force. According to a recent poll by the Kyiv-based Ukrainian Institute to the Future, 45% of Ukrainian believe the Russian military buildup posed a real threat.
Others took the troop buildup seriously as well. On April 18, the U.S. government recommended that all airlines maintain caution when flying over central and eastern Ukraine, as well as parts of Russia, due to security concerns.
The U.S. was closely watching the conflict unfold. On April 21, a U.S. Air Force RQ-4B Global Hawk strategic drone was noticed carrying out a reconnaissance flight near Kremlin-occupied Crimea and the Donbas war front, ignoring the Russian ban on flights in the area.
At sea, after the U.S. reportedly called off two navy destroyers en route to the Black Sea to avoid irritating Russia, the U.K. stepped in.
The British press reported that a naval group headed by air carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth would visit the region in May. Two of the group’s warships, protected by the Royal Air Force F-35 fighters, are expected to enter the Black Sea and show some muscle in support of Ukraine.
On the ground, things were even more complicated.
At least two Ukrainian soldiers were killed in action in Donbas over the past week, increasing the Ukrainian death toll in 2021 to over 30, with at least 12 soldiers lost during the April security crisis alone.
Apart from the Russian military buildup at borders and in Crimea, militant forces in Donbas were also actively preparing for battle. On April 19, the monitoring mission with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) recorded at least 12 BM-21 Grad missile systems deployed at two locations between 10 and 15 kilometers from the front line, in violation of Minsk agreements.
The monitors also saw 42 tanks and an air defense system deployed to occupied Donbas.
Media in Russian-occupied Donbas speculated about Russia’s possible recognition of its puppet regimes’ independence from Ukraine and their absorption into Russia.
“We need to officially declare that we recognize them and will defend them, including militarily,” as Gennady Zyuganov, the chairman of Russia’s Communist Party, asserted on April 20.
French President Emmanuel Macron (R) welcomes President Volodymyr Zelensky upon his arrival at the Elysee Palace in Paris to attend a summit on Ukraine on Dec. 9, 2019. (AFP)
Diplomatic victory?
While visiting Crimea on April 22, Russia’s defense minister Sergei Shoigu said that units with the 58th and 41st Combined Arms Armies, and the 76th and 98th Airborne Divisions would be going back to their home bases following a “successful inspection of their combat readiness.”
The official, however, noted that the Russian military was still ready to “react appropriately to any changes near Russian borders.”
Zelensky responded on Twitter that he “welcomes any steps to decrease the military presence and deescalate the situation in Donbas.
“Ukraine seeks peace,” he tweeted on April 22 afternoon. “Grateful to international partners for their support.”
Many in Ukrainian media considered this a major diplomatic victory for Ukraine and its allies.
“Zelensky now can easily say he has not only defeated Putin in a diplomatic battle,” said journalist Ivan Yakovina.
“But also achieved the most important thing by saving Ukraine from a very possible full-scale invasion, giving the Kremlin nothing in return.”
“I have to congratulate Joe Biden on deterrence success and crisis management,” said Gustav C. Gressel, a Berlin-based expert with European Council on Foreign Relations.
“The right warnings were sent to Moscow, the right intelligence to Ukraine. Russia could not extort concessions, could not provoke.”
Oleksandr Klymenko, the head of the BlackSeaNews portal, was far less optimistic.
“Russia has a historically great experience with disinformation,” the expert commented on April 22.
“The goal behind this case is to dull the vigilance of the civilized world, which has offered an unprecedented reaction. And of Ukrainians as well.”
“There has been no withdrawal yet. And this process is long and it can be done in a demonstrative manner. Let’s see what Ukrainian and foreign intelligence says about what is being withdrawn — manpower or empty trains.”
Ukrainian soldiers stand in position on the front line with Russia-backed separatists in Donetsk Oblast on Feb. 16, 2021. (AFP)
