History seems to start repeating itself in war-torn Syria now.
Angry crowds again pour into the Syrian streets to voice their protest against the dictatorship of President Bashar al-Assad. The latest reports saw new large rallies against the lack of civil liberties and basic necessities, as well as the grave economic downturn and endemic corruption in the government.
To many, it seems to be a striking memento of the spring 2011 protests, the brutal crackdown of which triggered a decade-long multisided war that took nearly 500,000 lives to date out of a nation of less than 17 million people.
Assad, with the help of Russia and Iran, might have retaken most of the country’s territory from armed opposition in the bloodletting war. But as the latest developments show, the Damascus regime is not even close to holding the ruined country together. The devastating international sanctions, as well as its inability to overcome corruption and ensure stability in Syria, can still spell the end of the family dynasty.
‘Enough is enough’
The city of as-Suwayda in southern Syria, populated by the Druze minority (which stayed loyal to Damascus), became a forefront of a new wave of anti-government rallies — a rather rare occasion in the country these days, given the brutality the regime shows towards its civilian population.
But on June 7, protesters marched through main streets to the city market bearing slogans “Enough is enough” and “We want to live in dignity.”
They decried the government over the deteriorating security and economic situation in Syria.
In recent weeks, the national currency Syrian pound lost at least 50% in value, and it got devalued by dozens fold against the U.S. dollar since the outbreak of war in 2011. Over the last weekend, the Syrian pound in the black market soared from nearly 2,300 to 3,000 to the U.S. dollar, while the official rate remains at nearly 700 pounds to $1.
Before the war, the national currency rated at nearly 50 pounds for $1.
According to the Syrian Center for Policy Research, an independent think tank, the decade-long war had cost the country at least $530 billion by 2019.
Various reports assert that the general population across the country find it increasingly difficult to purchase the most basic necessities, with prices skyrocketing all the time and many items in severe deficit.
Severe troubles mark the distribution of bread as well, which triggers rumors of mass famine coming ahead in Syria. Fresh protests getting closer to food riots are also reported in the last rebel-held enclaves of Idlib, where bread prices were reported to have increased fourfold.
As an indicative example, food prices were estimated by the United Nations World Food Program to have increased 152% in as-Suwayda alone by April since the beginning of the year. The organization believes over 9 million Syrians suffer troubles getting daily full-fledged nutrition.
In general, according to the UN, at least 80% of the country’s 17.5-million population live below the poverty line, and the socio-economic situation continues to deteriorate all the time.
And, as judged from recent estimates, the Syrian economy is expected to continue to plunge for years ahead. In 2012, amid unfolding civil war, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) hit a record of $73.6 billion, while in 2019, its GDP was estimated at $65 billion. In 2020, it is expected to trend around $37 billion in 2020, $27.2 in 2021 and $16.6 billion in 2022, according to forecasts by U.S-based analytics website Trading Economics.
A Syrian woman washes a child outside a tent at a camp for displaced persons near the village of Killi in Syria’s Idlib province on May 22, 2020. (AFP)
Dead man walking?
Peaceful protests in as-Suwayda continued in the following days.
At some point, the rallies turned out against the very Assad regime and its officials, which enjoy luxuries and privileges in the devastated country.
“Syria is for us and not the House of Assad,” the crowds were reported to have chanted on June 7.
Various videos published on social media also show protesters marching under slogans “Revolution, freedom, social justice,” and even “Down with Bashar al-Assad”.
In many ways, this repeats the spirit of the early days of the 2011 uprising drowned in blood by the regime.
However, to date, no clashes with police or government military forces have been reported, although the local government was quick to organize a parallel pro-regime rally in as-Suwayda.
Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based civil rights group, said the protests quickly evolved from forwarding purely economic claims to “becoming more political,” with people also demanding that Russia and Iran, al-Assad’s allies, withdraw their forces from the country.
The group added that even in the areas of Latakia, Tartous, and Homs, where the regime’s positions are considered strong, there had been talks about “the departure of Assad as an option to improve the situation.”
The regime, as usual, lays the blame for the economic collapse and devaluation on the West: with its so-called Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act coming into effect on June 17, the United States is going to introduce sanctions described as the toughest in the war’s history.
Also, in many ways, the growing scare is erupting due to complicated ties between Syria and Beirut, the capital city of neighboring Lebanon, which historically served as one of Syria’s financial hubs abroad.
In this situation, the ordinary population of Syria, where nearly 11 million depend on UN aid, finds itself simply not able to cope with the overall catastrophe, says Aaron Lund, a fellow with the U.S.-based think tank The Century Foundation.
“They’re desperate, and that could have political repercussions, like more protests or even internal rumblings within the regime,” the expert told the Kyiv Post.
“When you can’t feed your family, then risking your life protesting, fighting, or just giving up and fleeing abroad might not seem so bad after all.”
Despite that, one should not expect the overwhelming sanctions to ever force Damascus into reforms, he said, adding that al-Assad and his cronies would rather continue fighting until the bitter end, only with even more “internal trouble, fragmentation, and dysfunction.”
“In some ways, these recent protests are like the protests in 2011, which were about both political and economic problems,” the expert said.
“This time, the economy is clearly a lot more central, even if it translates into anger against the regime and its corruption… Now there’s just this dark, bitter desperation.”
“All that said, I don’t think you should overstate the political ferment we’ve seen so far. The economic deterioration is real and incredibly severe, but so far the demonstrations and protests have been limited and the regime hasn’t freaked out enough to crack down with full, brute force.”
“It could change, and we don’t know how that would turn out. But there’s a long, long history of people spotting some new crack in the regime camp and immediately declaring Assad a dead man walking.
“Well, he’s still there.”
