You're reading: Critical medical shortages expected in 2021

Next year’s health budget is woefully inadequate, according to the National Health Service. 

If this does not change before parliament approves the budget in the second reading, there will be critical shortages of drugs and health care services, including COVID-19 vaccines and treatments. 

Also, Ukraine will have trouble getting COVID vaccines due to how its budget is allocated.

“This draft state budget, if adopted, would leave the citizens of Ukraine without the opportunity to receive adequate medical care,” said a letter from the NHS public council addressed to parliamentary chairman Dmytro Razumkov.

The biggest shortage will hit the Medical Guarantee Program, a critical part of the country’s medical spending. It provides free access to a packet of drugs and medical services, including primary and emergency care. 

By law, this program must have at least 5% of the national budget, usually around $50 billion. The NHS’s public council estimated that the program needs Hr 225 billion, or $8 billion, in 2021. 

Under the current draft budget, the program only has 2.7% of the national budget, or roughly $4.3 billion. 

The nonprofit Patients of Ukraine said it “no longer hopes” for an increase in the number of guaranteed services available to people. 

“We will also see a decrease in the number of services for the early diagnosis of oncological diseases, which are leaders in the list of causes of death in Ukraine,” the organization wrote. 

Last year, 80,000 Ukrainians died of cancer. 

The money set aside for COVID-19 care is also insufficient. The Cabinet has budgeted about Hr 14.5 billion ($510 million) for COVID treatments for the year but Patients of Ukraine estimates that this money will be enough to last the first two or three months of 2021. 

State Company Medical Procurements of Ukraine added that planned funds for effective COVID immunization are critically low, at Hr 2.6 billion ($92 million.) The country needs at least twice as much, according to the company. 

Under the global COVAX program, Ukraine is set to get 8 million doses of COVID vaccine.  Since each patient requires two doses, this will cover 10% of the population, according to Medical Procurement head Arsen Zhumadilov. 

According to the World Health Organization, at least 65% of the population should be vaccinated to develop collective immunity. Ukraine will have to buy 22 million double doses on its own.

“Assuming that the average purchase price of the vaccine will be $7 (which is a very optimistic forecast,) government spending will reach $308 million,” Zhumadilov wrote. Taking into account expected $125 million in aid from the European Investment Bank and the World Bank, the remaining amount will be about $183 million or about Hr 5.2 billion.

Ukraine’s budgetary laws prevent it from signing contracts spanning multiple years. All agreements must be concluded within a single budget year — any unused funds are lost and have to be reallocated the following year. 

This will cause problems with procuring COVID vaccines internationally, according to Zhumadilov.

“Pharmaceutical companies do not produce drugs ‘in stock’ while waiting for an order. For each new order, they either start or queue up production,” he wrote.

“In the case of COVID-19 vaccines, where demand greatly exceeds supply, the lack of tools to enter into long-term contracts that are subject to specific commitments is unacceptable.”