Global tensions have grown, and diplomacy intensified as the Western rules-based world seeks to support the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine and deter Russia from further aggression.
Latest developments
Josep Borell, High Representative of the European Union went personally to the frontline of Russia’s war against Ukraine this week at the invitation of Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.
Borrell expressed his concern at the destruction of lives and property along the “contact line,” lamented that the war has cost too many lives these past seven years and reiterated external support for Ukraine. He called on the Russian Federation to de-escalate tensions before upcoming talks next week in Geneva, Brussels and Vienna.
Speaking from Ukraine, the European official rejected the tactic employed by Russia of holding talks with the U.S. and NATO about the futures of the EU and Ukraine without inviting them to participate.
Borrell was firm in insisting that Ukraine is part of Europe and no decisions or discussions about Europe or about Ukraine can be taken without both being present.
“No decisions about Ukraine without Ukraine“
wrote Kuleba also reiterated on Jan. 5. “On Jan. 10 I will visit Brussels for a meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Commission. Part of a wide diplomatic effort to deter further Russian aggression,” he announced.
In a joint press conference with President Volodymyr Zelensky on Dec. 16, Jens Stoltenberg underlined that “NATO stands with Ukraine,” and reaffirmed that “Ukraine has the right to choose its own security arrangements.” That “the decision on whether Ukraine can join NATO will be taken by Ukraine and 30 NATO Allies alone”.
“An extraordinary virtual meeting of the North Atlantic Council (NAC) at the level of Ministers of Foreign Affairs will be held via VTC on Friday 7 Jan. NATO Foreign Ministers will discuss Russia’s military build-up in and around Ukraine and broader European security issues. The meeting will be chaired by the NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg,” NATO announced in a press release.
What does the Russian Federation want?
Putin's demands for “security guarantees” are seen as an intensification of the “Primakov Doctrine,” which seeks to expand Russian influence and power into the former Soviet states and globally and seeks to control the policies of local states by claiming areas of Russian influence. It utilises systemic coordinated hybrid warfare applications to divide and disrupt the idea of a one-world approach to law and order according to security experts.
In line with this Russia is using a build-up of heavy weapons and troops within and near Ukraine's borders along with a demand for “security guarantees” to project Russian power and attempt to pressure western States into withdrawing support from Ukraine, to desist from defensive agreements with nations neighbouring Russia and to remove certain defensive systems.
Russian threats of military action if they don't receive 'security guarantees' are not within international commitments made by Russia in agreements such as the Budapest Memorandum, wherein Russia agreed to respect the legal borders of Ukraine, to refrain from use of military, economic or political coercion to influence the independence of Ukraine in return for Ukraine declaring a nuclear-weapon-free policy and handing its nuclear weapons to Russia. Russia broke its promise to Ukraine by annexing Crimea and leading an occupation of Donbas in 2014 according to available evidence.
Russia's prior history of use of physical and hybrid force makes its demand for “security guarantees” more alarming. Multiple reports of calls, meetings and communications between security officials around the world indicate that intensive diplomatic discussions are ongoing in efforts to determine appropriate responses to Russian demands before talks commence next week.
These communications concentrate upon three approaches: defence, deterrence and diplomacy in order to demotivate Russia from further invasion into Ukraine and to de-escalate tensions and forces, according to multiple statements.
“Russia has been massing troops and weapons in an unusual manner around the Ukrainian border” and “tensions have been building with respect to European Security.” and the conflict “is on the verge of getting deeper,” Borrell emphasized while in Ukraine. He added that “Military aggression against Ukraine will have massive consequences and severe costs” to Russia.
“On Jan. 6, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III spoke with Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoygu. They discussed risk reduction near Ukraine’s borders,” according to Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby.
In a call with President Zelensky on Jan. 3, U.S. President Biden “reaffirmed the commitment of the U.S. to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” and “made clear that the United States and its allies and partners will respond decisively if Russia further invades Ukraine,” according to the White House.
“Today we are talking about the future not only of Ukraine, but also of European security and world order based on rules and democratic values“
President Zelensky stressed in the same call.
“Russia has no right to divide Europe into areas of influence” foreign minister Kuleba stated this week, adding that Russia doesn't “have a right to define where, how and when the European Union is going to enlarge,” and it is the exclusive right of Kyiv and Brussels to decide on their own agreements and arrangements.
A busy week of diplomacy lies ahead as the rules-based world of the West and the expanding autocratic world of Russia prepare to meet to discuss the right of Ukraine to choose its own future.
