President Volodymyr Zelensky’s landslide in both the April 21 presidential election and the July 21 parliamentary one are a victory unprecedented in Ukrainian history. But the president may now be tempted to try and take his win a step further by holding early local elections this fall.
As long as Zelensky’s approval rating is high, his party has a chance to take over local governments. Zelensky and members of his team have not yet officially announced plans to hold early local elections, but they have hinted that it could happen.
Early elections could give Ukraine a chance to carry out a total re-boot of the entire government system and get rid of several controversial mayors facing corruption investigations.
The problem is that the legal grounds for such elections may be shaky.
Unclear plans
Currently, elections for mayors, city councils and regional legislatures are expected to take place in October 2020 nationwide.
But Zelensky himself hinted that early local elections could be held before then.
“Today our team can relax — but not too much because tomorrow morning they should work,” he said on July 21, following his party’s victory. “As for the local elections: Don’t relax.”
But on July 30, Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andriy Bohdan, said that a special law must be passed to hold early local elections.
“There is the problem of the unfinished local government reform,” Bogdan said. “Some elections for local communities have been held, and some have not. It would be logical to finish the creation of new local communities first and then hold elections. But the adoption of such a decision is an issue of dialogue with lawmakers.”
Bohdan was referring to a reform that envisages merging local governments in villages and small towns into larger entities, known as “united local communities.”
Meanwhile, Ruslan Stefanchuk, Zelensky’s representative in the Verkhovna Rada, said on July 16 that Zelensky’s team was considering holding early elections, arguing that Ukraine needs a complete re-boot of government at all levels.
Even some mayors have supported the plans. Dnipro Mayor Borys Filatov on July 22 urged Zelensky to hold early local elections, saying that Ukraine needs a renewal of the political elite.
Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko says that, after Zelensky’s landslide in the Rada election, “the likelihood of early local elections increased a lot.” Zelensky’s Servant of the People party won in Ukraine’s biggest cities, except for Lviv, according to party-list representation. The party also won in all single-member districts in Kyiv, Dnipro and Odesa and in all single-member districts in Kharkiv except for one.
Legal issues
Currently, it would be impossible to hold snap elections nationwide without changing the law.
Early local elections can be called only in some exceptional cases — such as the death of a mayor.
However, the authorities may change the law to provide a loophole for early local elections, Fesenko says. For example, they may amend legislation on decentralization and argue that early elections are necessary because local governments’ powers will be expanded, he added.
Olga Aivazovska, head of the Opora election watchdog, argues that there are no legal grounds for early local elections.
“If the new government coalition decides to adopt new legislation to hold early local elections based on political expediency or a political party’s ratings, this will be a negative signal,” she told the Kyiv Post.
Kharkiv
If Zelensky decides to hold early local elections, he has a chance to replace some of Ukraine’s most controversial mayors with his people.
Fesenko argues that while the label of Zelensky’s party would be a big advantage, he also needs to find strong competitors for the incumbents. In most cases, the names of such potential competitors are unknown.
For example, Kharkiv Mayor Gennady Kernes has been mired in controversy. He has been charged with kidnapping two EuroMaidan Revolution activists, torturing them and threatening to kill them in January 2014.
In 2018, a Poltava court closed the kidnapping case. Kernes’ critics suggest that the mayor made a deal with ex-President Petro Poroshenko to support his re-election in the April presidential vote, which he denied.
Kernes has also been investigated for allegedly embezzling up to Hr 15 billion ($557 million) by allocating land to fake cooperatives, but has not been officially charged in this case. Kernes has denied all accusations of wrongdoing.
“Kernes’ influence has decreased,” Fesenko said. “In 2014 he controlled single-member districts in Kharkiv almost completely, and now he has lost this control.”
Dmytro Bulakh, head of the Kharkiv Anti-Corruption Center, told the Kyiv Post that “Kernes has chances to win as long as we don’t offer a (strong) alternative.”
But Fesenko says that Kernes may not decide to run for mayor again due to health problems. The Kharkiv mayor survived an assassination attempt in 2014 and has been using a wheelchair since.
Odesa
Odesa Mayor Trukhanov is also toxic for many. It would be easier for Zelensky’s party to win the Odesa mayoral race because it is a more pluralistic city with more centers of power, and Trukhanov is not as entrenched as Kernes, Fesenko told the Kyiv Post. Moreover, Zelensky’s influence is stronger in Odesa, he added.
But Vitaly Ustymenko, head of the Odesa branch of the AutoMaidan anti-corruption watchdog, argues that, if a candidate backed by Zelensky runs against Trukhanov, his chances to win will be “50–50.”
On July 9, Odesa’s Malinovsky District Court acquitted Trukhanov in an Hr 185 million ($7.4 million) embezzlement case.
In March 2019, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine, or NABU, also charged Trukhanov with failing to declare assets worth Hr 51 million ($2 million) owned by his common-law wife Tetiana Koltunova. He is also under investigation in several other NABU cases.
Trukhanov is also controversial because he was a member of a mafia gang in the 1990s, according to an Italian police dossier, and because he used to have Russian citizenship and concealed it. He denies all accusations of wrongdoing.
A man takes a nap on a bus stop in Odesa on July 15, 2019, next to an ad of Odesa Mayor Gennady Trukhanov, running for parliament on the Opposition Bloc party list. The party lost the election. (Oleg Petrasiuk)
Dnipro
Filatov, the mayor of Dnipro, used to be an ally and business partner of billionaire oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky, who many allege backs Zelensky. However, he later became a loyalist of Poroshenko and backed his re-election bid this year.
Artem Romanyukov, head of Dnipro’s Civic Control watchdog, told the Kyiv Post that Filatov has no chances of winning if a candidate backed by Zelensky runs against him.
Filatov is trying to be loyal to Zelensky and reach a deal with him, but it’s not clear if the new administration will need Filatov, Romanyukov added. Another heavyweight, ex-Dnipropetrovsk Governor Oleksandr Vilkul, may also enter the mayoral race, Fesenko says. He is a former member of former President Viktor Yanukovych’s Party of Regions and currently represents the pro-Russian Opposition Bloc.
Lviv
Meanwhile, a potential mayoral race in Lviv may become very competitive.
Andriy Sadovyi, the mayor of Lviv since 2006, said he won’t run for the office again in 2020. His party Samopomich performed poorly in the parliamentary election in July, getting less than 1 percent of the vote, weakening Sadovyi.
Meanwhile, the influence of Poroshenko’s European Solidarity party and rock star Svyatoslav Vakarchuk’s Voice party in Lviv has increased, Fesenko says. He names ex-Lviv Oblast Governor Oleh Sinyutka as a potential candidate backed by European Solidarity.
Kyiv
In Kyiv, there are two major government positions: that of a mayor, elected by the people, and that of the Kyiv State Administration chief, appointed by the president. However, the two positions have often been occupied by the same person.
Now, Zelensky has asked the Cabinet of Ministers to fire Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko from the position of the Kyiv State Administration head. The Cabinet has not decided on the issue yet.
According to analysts, Oleksandr Tkachenko, CEO of Kolomoisky’s 1+1 channel and a newly elected member of the Verkhovna Rada from Zelensky’s party, is expected to become Klitschko’s main competitor. Tkachenko told Novoe Vremya magazine on July 31 that it was a possibility. Fesenko says he could first be appointed as head of the Kyiv city administration during a transition period and then run for mayor during an early election.
“The fight for Kyiv will be very bitter,” Fesenko said.
Kyiv Post staff writer Bermet Talant contributed to this story.
