BRUSSELS – It’s not only Ukraine that faces big elections next year: The European Union will hold elections to its parliament in May 2019, and that could have implications for the union’s policies on both Ukraine and Russia.
The EU parliament is the foundational democratic institution of the union, and has the powers to nominate or approve the nominations various top EU officials, including the president of the European Commission, the union’s executive. It also has powers over the EU’s budget.
And as a body directly elected by voters in the 28 EU member states, the parliament reflects the sentiments of voters across the continent. With populist, far-right and nationalist parties gaining ground throughout Europe, the EU elections could impact the union’s Russia policies, as these parties tend to be sympathetic to Russia and its authoritarian leader, Vladimir Putin.
The Kyiv Post talked to a number of experts in Brussels about the upcoming elections in both Ukraine and the EU, and what changes might be in store.
Little impact
According to Senior Research Fellow and head of EU Foreign Policy of the Centre for the European Policy Studies (CEPS) Steven Blockmans, there will be no major strategic changes in the EU’s Ukraine and Russia policies after the new parliament is elected.
“Even if there is a temporary slowdown from the official side of the EU, I don’t think it will have a major impact on the EU-Ukraine relations,” Blockmans told the Kyiv Post.
Instead, there may be a few tweaks to tactics, he said, noting that there is already a tendency for selective engagement with Russia, as demonstrated by France, Germany and Austria, which currently holds the six-month rotating presidency of the EU.
“There are voices in the EU, also from the current presidency of Austria, to go for Realpolitik and not for Moralpolitik in the relationship with Russia, and there is more willingness to re-engage with Moscow on several aspects.” Blockmans said.
“I don’t think it is unthinkable that there will be more emphasis on seeking selective areas of cooperation with Russia.”
Blockmans said that other countries that also favor selective cooperation with Russia include Hungary, Bulgaria, Cyprus, and Italy. However, such engagement could have a downside not only for Ukraine, but for the EU itself, he warned.
“In the next political year, we might see a gradual shift in the EU’s relations with Russia which will, of course, have an impact on Ukraine, but it will also be bad for the EU,” Blockmans said.
“An EU that is seeking selective engagement with Russia will be perceived in Moscow as having abandoned moral politics. It will be not in the interests of the EU or in the interests of Ukraine for the EU to abandon its core principles.”
Work in progress
Blockmans also said the EU might soon “face a difficult choice, if and when the investigation of Special Counsel Robert Mueller into Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential elections and related matters finds that there was collusion between President (Donald) Trump, his campaign, and Russian officials.”
“In that scenario, the U.S. Congress will no doubt slap extra punitive sanctions on the Kremlin, just at a moment when the EU is trying to improve relations with Russia.”
Blockmans gave said that overall, the relationship between the EU and Ukraine is “modestly positive, characterized as being a work in progress.” At the same time, he said it was still “a difficult time for the democratic institutions in Ukraine, due to the significant impact of the conflict with Russia.”
Tensions between Ukraine’s Presidential Administration and parliament have led to delays and disappointment, and confusion between the various bodies that are responsible for fighting corruption in Ukraine, Blockmans said.
“As a result of the elections in 2019, the pace of reforms in Ukraine in a material sense will be slower,” he said. “There will be a lot of rhetoric around it, and the reform engine itself might slow down – which will increase irritation on the EU side.”
Domestic front
Roland Freudenstein, the policy director of the Martens Centre for European Studies, said developments inside Ukraine were by far the most important factor in relations between Kyiv and Brussels.
“I can’t predict who will win the (Ukrainian) presidential and Verkhovna Rada elections, but it is of the utmost importance that the reforms continue with more decisiveness, that the power of the oligarchs is curbed, and that corruption is diminished and the rule of law strengthened,” Freudenstein told the Kyiv Post.
“If there’s no progress on the domestic front, no international developments can help Ukraine improve its relationship with the EU.”
Freudenstein said it was a safe prediction that nationalists and populists would make gains in the European parliamentary elections next May.
“That will make it more difficult for governments and EU institutions to argue that we have to invest more money, time and energy into our neighborhood,” he said.
“In several member states, especially in the Netherlands, Ukraine has become a relevant topic in the debate about the EU itself. It has become easy for populists to argue that closer relations with countries like Ukraine are not only a waste of resources, but also bring crime and corruption into our societies, and that ‘elites’ in national capitals and in Brussels actually promote this, either for personal gain or for lofty humanitarian goals, but always behind the back and against the interests of the ‘little people’ in the EU.
“Every bit of news about corruption and oligarch power in Ukraine strengthens these populists’ arguments. But every bit of progress made in reforms in Ukraine weakens them.
“Transatlantic relations are also important. The worse they get, the easier it becomes for the skeptical voices in the EU to argue that we need to get to a working arrangement with Russia.
“Look at what happened this summer: After Putin’s unbearable visit to Austria, (German) Chancellor (Angela) Merkel received him in Berlin – fortunately in a less ridiculous manner, and without concrete results, but many commentators claimed that the desire to talk to Putin was created by strategic insecurity in the relationship between the EU and the United States.
“Worsening transatlantic relations also strengthen isolationist instincts in the United States – and therefore also the desire to withdraw support from Ukraine. Fortunately, in recent months this has not happened, and even Trump has sent positive signals to Kyiv. But the surreal Trump-Putin meeting in Helsinki has shown that things could go the other way very quickly. Again, a successfully modernizing Ukraine will make it easier for its friends on both sides of the Atlantic to keep helping Ukraine high on the agenda of EU-US strategic cooperation in NATO and in general. But the main effort for a better EU-Ukraine relationship has to come from Ukrainians themselves.”
Aiming for goals
Ambassador Mykola Tochytskyi, the head of Ukraine’s mission to the EU warned that Russia might try to intervene in any future election in EU countries, aiding at the ballot box the populist and extremist parties it already supports with propaganda.
“It would be worthwhile for the EU to take this seriously,” Tochytskyi said. He also stressed that sanctions on Russia for its aggression against Ukraine should be kept in place.
But Tochytskyi also said he was optimistic about the future development of the EU-Ukraine relations.
“You must remember that at the (EU-Ukraine) summit in July four unions were adopted for further bilateral cooperation between Ukraine and the EU. These are the Energy Union, the Digital Union, the Customs Union, and cooperation in the judicial and legal field.
“This is a kind of roadmap. If we now devote ourselves to the pragmatic and persistent implementation of the Association Agreement, it will be colossal. This really is what we need: fewer declarations, more work.”
Tochytskyi also noted that Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko had submitted a draft bill on amendments to the Constitution to stipulate that the strategic goal of the state is to obtain full membership of Ukraine in the EU and NATO.
“A lot has been done politically … (including) the fight against corruption, the work on the four unions, (and) the implementation of the Association Agreement. Now serious routine work must go on.
“We must not dwell on what has been achieved. The more we get through the practical things in the Association Agreement, the closer we get to our goal.”
