Editor’s Note: The Kyiv Post asked political analysts and thinkers in Ukraine, Europe and the United States to assess what Joe Biden’s presidency will mean for Ukraine.
Joanna Hosa,
deputy director of the Wider Europe program at the European Council on Foreign Relations:
“Even if Ukraine largely enjoys bipartisan support in the U.S., the Biden administration will certainly be better disposed to Ukraine. His win was welcomed in Ukraine across the political spectrum, with current and former leaders stressing his proven support and knowledge of the country. There will likely be a renewed effort to end the war in Donbas, and the now-vacant position of the U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations might be filled. However, if Russia does not want to solve the conflict, it will drag on. For now, there are no signs that Russia is interested in a peaceful Donbas and prosperous Ukraine. Russia expects relations with Biden to be tense. It is nervous about new sanctions coming from Congress, but is ready to learn to live with them if needed while asserting its power in its neighborhood.”
Alyona Getmanchuk,
director of the New Europe Center in Kyiv:
“The Biden administration will be more interested in both reforms in Ukraine and deterring Russian aggression, as Biden has a greater understanding of Ukraine’s importance to U.S. interests in the region. However, it should also be understood that Biden will not be able to invest as much time and political capital in Ukraine as he did as Vice President of the United States. He will spend a lot of time on domestic policy issues. In addition, even the highest level of U.S. administration commitment to reform in Ukraine will have a limited effect in the absence of appropriate political will on the part of the Ukrainian leadership and public pressure on the government on these issues. This will likely be a relationship with the elements of tough love. Strict dialogue on reforms for a more resilient and successful Ukraine in a long-term perspective.”
Olexiy Haran,
professor of comparative politics at Kyiv Mohyla Academy:
“Under Biden, U.S. foreign policy will generally be more predictable — not only in Ukraine, but in the world as a whole, because Biden will take into account the views of partners, adhere to international obligations and cooperate with international organizations. This is a general approach and Ukraine will not be an exception. And this is good. This is more predictable and more stable. If we talk about Ukraine, the first thing to note is that Biden really knows Ukraine well. Trump had absolutely superficial knowledge. We remember how he said that Ukrainians and are awful, corrupt people. Biden is aware of the problems of corruption in Ukraine, but he simultaneously understands what has been done in the reform process.”
Roland Freudenstein, policy director at Wilfried Martens Center for European Studies in Brussels:
“No more ‘perfect’ phone calls from the White House, and Rudy Giuliani will no longer be the President’s front man in your country. That’s already a big achievement! But seriously, on Russia, there will simply be a coherent line from the White House to Congress, condemning the Kremlin’s aggression and firmly standing by Ukraine. I’m not sure about mediation efforts because I believe the Biden administration will be very interested in Europe taking on more responsibility — so they will leave that to France, Germany and the EU in general. But they may offer more military assistance. The decisive change will be political, though: Ukraine will be supported more strongly simply because it is a democracy that is under authoritarian attack.”
Ian Bond,
director of foreign policy at the Center for European Reform in London:
“You know better than me what role Biden played as the main point of contact between the Obama administration and Poroshenko. He clearly understands Ukraine’s strategic importance. I would expect that U.S. support for Ukraine’s defense efforts would continue. On the other hand, given the desire of the Republicans to associate Biden with corruption in Ukraine (via his son Hunter), he may not want to get too involved in Ukrainian affairs as president.”
Anders Åslund,
senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington:
“With Biden backing a strong anti-corruption agenda in Ukraine, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau and the rest of the country’s anti-corruption architecture is set to be reinforced. The long-awaited reform of the Security Services of Ukraine (SBU) is likely to finally take place, while judicial reform will be restarted. As a result, Ukraine will hopefully move closer towards genuine rule of law. This will have a significant positive impact on the country’s prosperity while paving the way for further Euro-Atlantic integration.”
Daria Kaleniuk,
executive director of the Anti- Corruption Action Center in Kyiv:
“I think that, strategically, under Biden, the State Department and other U.S. state institutions will start investigating sources of funding of pro-Kremlin and oligarchic forces in Ukraine. In the U.S., there are tools for tracking the movement of these funds, and for blocking them. And I think they should do it as personal sanctions, and blocking dirty money must be a priority for the Biden administration in its attempts to counter Russian aggression. Because Russian hybrid aggression, propaganda and military aggression are based on money.”
Amanda Paul,
senior policy analyst for the Europe in the World program at the European Policy Center in Brussels:
“Many of those he is likely to appoint to work on this region — for example, Michael Carpenter — are also very good friends of Ukraine and experts on the region. Unlike Trump, Biden is also predictable and reliable. He also has no delusions about Russian President Vladimir Putin. He will appoint a new, probably high-profile ambassador to double down on U.S. engagement with Ukraine. Given that the U.S. has not had a permanent ambassador in Ukraine since May 2019, it is much needed. There can be no doubt that Biden will continue to provide important military support to Ukraine.”
Melinda Haring,
deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center:
“Biden’s victory is an obvious win for Ukraine. The former vice president sees the country’s enormous potential and is aware of its many flaws. At a very minimum, he will continue to send military and development assistance, but he’ll take a much greater role in pushing the country to reform from the White House. It’s a new day for U.S.-Ukrainian relations, but don’t expect Biden’s victory to magically transform a very damaged relationship. Biden and his new team will have much repair work to do. Zelensky is suspicious of the West, and rightfully so after last year’s debacle, and has had little exposure to it. He comes from a completely different world. Plus he’s arrogant and not interested in long lectures and detailed checklists from well-meaning bureaucrats. Biden and his team must establish trust and a personal relationship between the two heads of state as soon as possible.”
