Two questions are crucial to mobilize support for holding the Expo in Odesa: what would the city gain from it? And then: what are the chances of getting it? This article, the last in the series, aims at answering both.
What would Odesa gain from holding the EXPO?
Proponents of events such as the Olympics or the Expo may sometimes exaggerate their benefits. To avoid this risk, we shall use an objective reference: the experience of the Milan Expo in 2015. This is close enough in time and geography to provide a solid benchmark of what could be expected for Odesa. We shall use this benchmark to assess the realism of the economic assessment done by the Regional Development Agency of Odesa region (website).
The two cities are of a similar size. Milan: 1.3 million residents, compared to Odesa: 1 million. Both are located not exactly in the center of Europe but not far from it and are easily reachable by millions of travelers. This makes them comparable.
The Regional Agency envisages:
Participation from 130 countries – This is very likely; Milan hosted 137 countries and 45 further pavilions of companies/organizations.
30 million visitors – Too optimistic; Milan received 22 million visitors, but it has three big airports and high-speed train connections with the other Italian cities. This is relevant because in all Expos, the majority of visitors come from the hosting country.
200.000 jobs created – Realistic; Milan achieved 242.000 (study by Camera di Commercio di Milano).
The Odesa regional development agency does not forecast the GDP generated by the event, but for Milan the additional GDP was Euro 13.9 billion, with 31.6 billion created for satellite activities elsewhere in Italy (report of the newspaper “Il Sole 24Ore”).
Apart from the immediate economic windfall, the Expo has created permanent benefits to all cities that hosted it.
In the case of Milan, the most interesting and noteworthy were the following:
For the first time, Milan appeared on the map of Europe as one of the most interesting tourist destinations; before, it was overshadowed by Rome, Florence, and Venice. According to data by MasterCard, the Expo effect increased foreign tourists from 6.9 million (2012) to 9.1 million (2018).
A revolution occurred in the transport system: a new metro line, new rail and bus connections with airports and the invention of the most developed car-sharing service in the world. For Odesa, a particular benefit would be the prolongation of the tourist season: Six months of permanent activity for Expo will probably change the rhythm of the city and show its economic players that it is possible to attract tourists and offer entertainment in April, October, November, and December as well.
The citizens of Milan grew prouder of their city and of its better reputation abroad. Milanese people, who had not been particularly proud of the city before, started supporting those political leaders who worked for a more modern and efficient city, instead of voting for parties for ideological reasons.
Summing up, a year after the Expo 2015, a study by the Chamber of Commerce of Milan defined the big event as a modernity accelerator, which gave the city a 15-year leap forward. After the Milan Expo, foreign investment (especially in real estate) increased, and many foreign companies opened new offices. Important brands like Apple, Amazon and Starbucks brought in their European flagship stores and 20 countries opened new consulates – to mention just a few examples of the EXPO legacy. Arguably, the benefit to Odesa will be even greater, as Milan had a more advantageous starting point.
What are the chances of Odesa actually getting the Expo?
The citizens of Milan were very pessimistic about winning the EXPO, as are Odesa’s citizens today. But actually, Odesa’s chances of getting the prize are about as good as those that Milan had at the outset.
The format of the universal exposition was invented in the second half of the 19th century to showcase many countries in one city, to present different cultures to citizens who could not afford to travel and to share the world’s most recent technological innovations. Today, travelling is affordable for everybody, but the Expo has remained a big fair where you can see showcases from all over the world.
From this perspective, Odesa is the ideal city to represent Ukraine because of its historically cosmopolitan DNA. Before the Tsarist empire collapsed, half of Odesa’s citizens belonged to foreign nationalities. The first dwellers were, apart from Ukrainians, Italian, German, French, Greek, Turkish, Moldovan and Jewish. They came to the new city, where they found more tolerance and the possibility to develop their business.
Therefore, an Expo in Odesa would have the significance of bringing back to the city a mix of nationalities and cultures already present in its past. This legacy is by no means forgotten. There are more than 20 places in the world named Odessa (13 in the USA). The name Odessa is utilized in cinema, novels (The Odessa File), music (a famous album of the Bee Gees), company marketing, and as a female name (Odessa Young).
Neither Odesa nor Milan are the political capital of their countries, but for the Expo cultural heritage counts more than politics. Like Milan, Odesa has historically been a very important cultural center (architecture, music, literature) and a center for innovation. Milan is an industrial city but can boast of the world-famous La Scala theatre. Odesa, even though it dimmed a little during the Soviet period, was a renowned world center not only for trade, with its famous ports, but also for cinema (it was Russia’s film making capital until the late 1920s) and opera with its beautiful theatre. No Ukrainian city except Kyiv enjoys such international recognition. This is a very interesting marketing advantage, compared to other, not so famous, EXPO competitor cities like Busan or Riyadh.
Odessa in 1850
To succeed, Odesa will need determined support from Kyiv. But, from a political point of view, this is a good time in terms of relations with the capital, since many people from Odesa or with strong ties to the city have high positions in central Government: Yuriy Vaskov (Deputy Minister of Infrastructure), Aleksandr Bornyakov (Deputy Minister of Digital Transformation), Oleksandr Tkachenko (Minister of Culture) and Aleksandr Androsov, adviser to the president. These officials represent a resource that can support Odesa’s candidature within the ministries.
But let’s repeat the crucial question:
What’s the point? Why should Odesa accept such a big challenge?
A long-term goal is to develop a stronger sense of unity between Odesa and its country. The city Odesa is important for Ukraine in attracting the world. We know that many Ukrainians (especially some living abroad) are suspicious of the “Pearl of the Black Sea”, because of her importance at the time of the Russian Empire and purported former pro-Russian orientation. Moreover, Odesa still speaks mainly Russian and the city’s iconic writers (Babel, Jabotinsky, Ilya, Petrov) wrote in Russian.
But the overwhelming majority of Odesa’s residents are loyal to Ukraine and ready to contribute to Ukrainian nation-building. The best way to get rid of prejudices is to work together. Expo 2030 is a great opportunity to highlight Odesa’s important role for Ukraine.
And what about the weaknesses? There are many, of course. But among them, the worst is the lack of ambition of Odesa residents and their lack of trust in the potential of their city.
But if they will see a big, successful event being organized by the government and the leadership of the city they will help it along with the typical generosity of Odesa folk.
The best example of how it is possible to realize great things in Odesa is the last endeavor of the late Oleksandr Roitburd. When he became director of a prestigious but neglected cultural institution, the Odesa Fine Arts Museum, he proved that it was possible to establish a new model of management, to get donations from companies and patrons of the city and to bring back citizens and families to enjoy the Museum.
If the Ukrainian team composed to promote Expo will work with the same spirit as Roitburd, Odesa has every chance of winning and of reappearing on the geographical map as a place to visit, work and live.
To read the previous parts:
