With Ukrainians from across the country coming together this month to celebrate during the holiday season, the blend of Omicron and vaccine hesitancy in Ukraine is a recipe for disaster.
Just as Ukraine seems ready to turn the corner from the peak of its most recent wave, the extra-contagious Omicron variant of COVID-19 is set to make its grand entrance.
“It is expected that the new variant of coronavirus, Omicron, may appear in Ukraine this week [by Dec. 20]”, said Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine, this week. “But the results of the first studies in countries where it has already been found show the symptoms of the illness are milder.”
What he didn’t elaborate on is the difference in severity of symptoms between the vaccinated and unvaccinated. This would seem important in a country still having difficulty vaccinating its population.
A dangerous new variant is a tricky enough situation on its own. However, it’s effect is compounded at this time of year, when Ukrainians celebrate the holiday season with friends and family. Lots of friends and family.
Ukraine’s Elderly are at Extreme Risk
But in Ukraine, it’s more complicated than just managing ‘personal bubbles’ or ensuring appropriate ‘social distancing’ when meeting with loved ones.
Simply put, not enough Ukrainians are getting vaccinated.
And it’s putting the country’s elderly at extreme risk – even before the appearance of Omicron or the nieces and nephews and godparents and godchildren the holiday season will bring.
It’s putting us all at risk.
Look at these numbers, based on Ministry of Health stats from Nov. 15 to 21.
More than 4 in 5 COVID-19 deaths in Ukraine are 60 or older.
Over half the COVID-19 deaths in Ukraine are 70 or older.
Those under 50 account for just 6% of COVID-19 deaths in Ukraine – but this same group accounts for over half the COVID-19 cases in Ukraine!
These deaths – now nearing 100,000 – are preventable if Ukrainians collectively roll up their sleeves to get vaccinated.
But that’s not happening nearly quickly enough.
“Only 1 in 3 Ukrainians are fully vaccinated. More than half have yet to receive a single dose. It’s been nearly a year since the vaccine rollout began. How come?“
Due to vaccine “hesitancy”. Or, as it could more appropriately be labelled in Ukraine – vaccine denial.
Vaccine Denial
At the beginning of February, just as the vaccine was about to roll out, President Volodomyr Zelensky saw the coming battle.
“Having solved the issue of vaccine supplies, we face a new problem”, he said at the time, “Mistrust of vaccinations and the refusal of a significant part of the population to get the [COVID-19] vaccine.”
Vaccine hesitancy is nothing new in Ukraine and existed long before terms like coronavirus, COVID-19, and Omicron were household terms. Plenty of studies have looked at the phenomenon and have pointed the finger at everything from substandard Soviet vaccine s to distrust of politicians and health services to misinformation in the media and fake news from Russia.
“Whatever the reasons, Ukrainians have rejected the vaccines in droves.“
When surveyed, at least half of the Ukrainian population – and upwards of three-quarters of Ukrainians – have indicated a refusal to get vaccinated.
The Red Cross, for example, recently revealed survey results stating that 69% of Ukrainians “do not plan to be vaccinated”. A survey by the Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute showed strong COVID-19 hesitancy throughout Ukraine, ranging from 53% to 81%, depending on the region.
It’s an enormous problem, as the country can’t reach herd immunity until at least 70% of the population is vaccinated. Herd immunity is reached when enough of a population is vaccinated that it protects those in society who are not.
And herd immunity should be the bare minimum goal here. Eradication is possible.
Vaccine Passports
Ukraine’s vaccine rollout was slow. Like, really slow.
Launched on Feb. 24, the country had a grand total of two fully vaccinated people by April 7. It took four months to vaccinate just 1% of the entire population. Another four months later – less than 16% of the population was fully vaccinated.
Things started to ramp up with the introduction of vaccine passports.
The first vaccine passports required for travel were introduced in the EU on July 1. Ukraine introduced its own vaccine passport requirements in September.
In the first two months since the introduction of the requirements, the number of vaccinated Ukrainians nearly doubled – from 8.9% to 17.1%. That number should nearly double again by New Year.
Vaccine Passport Backlash
Since the introduction of vaccine passport requirements in Ukraine, efforts to get around the vaccine regime have skyrocketed.
Ukrainian news abounds with stories of Ukrainians going to ridiculous lengths to avoid getting their vaccines. Here’s a taste of some of the international coverage:
“Ukraine’s Booming Black Market in Fake COVID Vaccination Certificates”
“The dark web is awash with counterfeit COVID Certificates”
“Fake Diia applications plague Ukraine amid mounting COVID-19 death toll, infections”
“In Kropyvnytskyi, doctors who traded in fake COVID certificates were exposed”
“COVID deaths soar in Ukraine as the country struggles with fake vaccine certificates”
On Dec. 14, Ukraine’s State Security Service dismantled the largest fake COVID-19 certificate network yet. The group was said to be collecting UAH 5 million UAH ($185,000) per month.
“It’s a lucrative one, the fake vaccination certificate business.“
Any why not? Instead of getting life-saving vaccines for free, Ukrainians are shelling out upwards of UAH 5,000 ($200) or more for these fake certificates. That’s roughly half the average monthly salary in Ukraine.
It puts the country at risk of becoming a COVID-19 ghetto, an island in Europe where locals are prevented from travelling abroad due to a lack of trust in the quality of data collected related to the vaccine rollout.
When you have doctors taking bribes and hackers cracking the Diia application to produce thousands of false COVID-19 certificates, it’d be easy to understand why.
(to be continued)
Part 2: Government Fights Back on Vaccine Hesitancy.
