What does Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko dream about when he sleeps at night? Six years ago, he might have dreamed about ruling a joint Belarusian-Ukrainian state.
In a recent interview with Polish media outlet onet.pl, former Prime Minister of Poland Donald Tusk alleged that in spring 2014, during Russia’s surprise annexation of Crimea, Lukashenko rang him up to propose the creation of a union state between Ukraine and Belarus — naturally ruled by Lukashenko himself.
Today, Lukashenko faces unprecedented protests against his rule across Belarus. Increasingly, he finds Russia to be his closest ally as he tries to cling to power.
In 2014, the situation was rather different. Despite a strong relationship with Moscow, Belarus was caught off guard by Russia’s unprecedented military aggression. Lukashenko feared that Belarus might fall under the control of the Kremlin and that he would find himself out of a job. The proposed union with Ukraine was intended to help protect Belarus from the threat of invasion.
Tusk stated that: “Lukashenko was wary of uncontrolled developments, to which not only Belarus could fall victim. And this could mean it was over for him.”
Lukashenko appealed to Tusk to persuade the EU to let him act as the “guarantor of a peaceful solution to the Ukrainian issue.” Needless to say, the proposal was rejected.
This wasn’t Belarus’ first’s planned union. In the 1990s, Belarus and Russia formed a union state, but it’s real-world implications have remained limited.
The Union State of Russia and Belarus was aimed at formalizing relations between former Soviet states and Russophilic nations. But until last year, the union remained a largely symbolic organisation, rather than a true attempt to integrate the two nations. It’s most significant real-world implications are that the two countries have virtually no border between them and citizens of both Russia and Belarus currently have the right to move freely between the nations, including settling for work or study.
But Union State relations have not always been easy. In 2007, Lukashenko stated that he had faced repeated demands from Russia to integrate into Russia.
Then, in 2019, the presidents of both nations agreed on the creation of a unitary parliament between the two countries, potentially binding Minsk to Moscow economically, militarily and culturally.
The 2019 declaration of further integration was the first significant step towards Belarus’ integration into Russia. But just one month later, Lukashenko suddenly rejected the proposed unification, stating that he would not surrender Belarus’ sovereignty “even to fraternal Russia.”
The recent protests in Belarus mark another flip-flop in Belarus-Russia relations. Lukashenko has called on President Putin to step in to aid him, calling for military and police forces to be made available to suppress protesters calling for Lukashenko’s resignation. Lukashenko recently accused “Ukrainian extremists” of attempting to militarily intervene in Belarus. Oddly, Lukashenko initially attemped to accuse Russia of attempting to intervene in Belarus.
