EDMONTON, Canada – By the end of 2019, the face of Europe – or at least the faces of Europe’s leaders – could look a lot different from what they did on Jan. 1. Ukrainian presidential elections are scheduled for March, followed by European Parliament elections at the end of May, which will bring a new European Commission and possibly a new balance of forces in the EU’s parliament. And in autumn, Canadian federal elections will occur at almost the same time as Ukraine is picking its new parliament.
The upcoming elections are already dominating the news cycle and will continue to do so throughout the coming months. But the New Year will see a change in more than just the political landscape.
The Kyiv Post talked to experts and policy makers and asked them to predict what Ukraine can expect in 2019, and how relations between Canada and Ukraine are expected to develop.
David R. Marples, Distinguished University Professor and Chair of the Department of History & Classics, University of Alberta
“2019 is a pivotal year for Ukraine because of the presidential elections. A very large opinion poll (over 40,000 respondents) conducted by Rating Nov. 16 through Dec. 10 suggested that there are likely to be four main contenders: Yulia Tymoshenko (20.8%), Volodymyr Zelensky (13.4), Petro Poroshenko (11.1), and Yury Boyko (9.6).
“But the elections are notable for very high negative ratings in polls of some candidates, particularly incumbent President Poroshenko. That Poroshenko’s ratings have not improved much in more recent polls — they remain less than 11 percent — despite his very public role in attaining the independent of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, suggests that his campaign has little momentum.
“On the other hand, none of the candidates has overwhelming support, and if Poroshenko can by some means make it into the second round, he has the resources and management team to a secure a second term. Zelensky’s candidacy poses some dangers for Ukraine, despite its light-heartedness and his popularity as an actor. He is funded by oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky, formerly an ally of Tymoshenko, who served as governor of Dnipropetrovsk Region in 2014-15. Thus, he has ample resources, and his appeals to the people to formulate his platform and his brilliance as a comedic actor (albeit a Russian-speaking one) have endeared him to the general public. But it is almost impossible to say how he would govern Ukraine.
“In general, Ukrainians are dissatisfied with the status quo, most notably and their main concerns, in order, are: the failure to bring an end to the conflict in the Donbas; the poor economic situation, exacerbated by the former; the continuing prevalence of corruption; and high levels of crime. However, no candidate thus far has offered a platform that offers a plan to bring peace to the east — to do so of course would be considered self-defeating. Arguably Russia would be content if any of the above-mentioned candidates other than Poroshenko was victorious in the election.
“Moreover, relations with Russia are likely to remain hostile. While major Russian land-based attacks on Ukraine are unlikely, the Russian government is likely to put pressure on Ukraine in areas where it holds a strong position vis-à-vis its neighbor: control over the Azov Sea, energy (especially nuclear power), and in the Donbas, with little change occurring in Crimea.
“It also remains to be seen whether there will be more than a symbolic Russian response to the independence of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church. In turn, Ukraine must also improve relations with Poland and an increasingly skeptical European Union, which itself is divided and replete with populist or deeply nationalistic governments.
“Further afield, Ukraine’s relations with Canada are likely to remain strong, whether or not Justin Trudeau’s government remains in power by the end of the year. The United States is a more complex phenomenon, with little rapport between the president and the U.S. Congress, though there is a general sentiment among legislators that Ukraine’s independence and territories should be offered some protection and support.”
Andriy Shevchenko, Ambassador of Ukraine to Canada
“There are a few things to keep an eye on this year.
“In terms of military and defense, Operation Unifier, the Canadian military training mission in Ukraine, will be renewed after March and the first Canadian weapons will be supplied to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
“As for business opportunities, a Ukraine Reforms Conference is scheduled to be held in Toronto in the summer of 2019; Audio-Visual Coproduction Agreement will be signed. Trade between the countries will continue, benefiting from the Canada-Ukraine Free Trade Agreement and economic growth in both sides. At the same time, the extension of the Canada-Ukraine Free Trade Agreement into services and investments will be negotiated. Direct Ukraine International flights from Kyiv to Toronto will continue with more frequency, and a new fleet is expected to be in service as well.
“The year of 2019 will see some important elections, including Federal Parliamentary Election in Canada, which will be held in October – almost simultaneously with the parliament elections in Ukraine. This spring, a major election observation mission from Canada will monitor the Ukrainian presidential election, including long-term observers. Canada will also continue numerous programs of technical assistance to Ukraine, including those for the National Police, legal aid centers, the empowerment of women, and for small- and mid-sized enterprises.”
Oleksandr Danyleiko, Consul General of Ukraine in Edmonton
“In recent years we’ve created a solid base for developing Canada-Ukraine relations in all spheres. Together with the political and humanitarian dimensions, we will focus on economics in 2019.
“Despite the Russian aggression, Ukraine’s economy is performing quite well, and our trade and economic relations (with Canada) show good positive dynamics. More and more Canadian companies are looking for opportunities to invest in Ukraine. These directions of our bilateral cooperation will be our priorities for 2019. We plan to organize a conference on Ukraine’s reforms in June in Toronto, with the participation of top-level Ukrainian officials and leading national producers.
“The main purpose of this conference will be to show Canadian business how Ukraine is performing, and what changes have are already been made to make the country friendly for business and attractive for investments. We believe that this conference will be a productive platform for the business community to establish fruitful contacts, and to discuss new possibilities and opportunities for doing business in and with Ukraine.
“This year we’re also paying attention to the development of regional cooperation between our countries. Canada is huge country with great potential in each and every region. Until 2018, Ukraine was represented by its diplomatic offices only in eastern part of Canada. We always saw great potential to develop our cooperation with western Canada, taking also into account large and active Ukrainian community there. In order to fully realize this potential, last year we established new Consulate General of Ukraine in Edmonton. Its main task for this year will be not only to provide proper consular service for Ukrainian citizens in western Canada, but also to promote relations between Ukraine and its regions with Canadian provinces of Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan, in the political, economic, humanitarian, cultural and other spheres of our bilateral relations.”
Eugene Czolij, Ukrainian World Congress President 2008-2018
“Although I don’t have a crystal ball, I will state the obvious – namely that 2019 started with a historic moment with the granting on Jan. 6, 2019 of the Tomos of Autocephaly of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine by the Ecumenical Patriarch to the Metropolitan of Kyiv and all Ukraine. I’m convinced that the Tomos of Autocephaly will have a huge impact on the future of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine and Ukraine’s whole nation-building process. I also believe that we will still witness in 2019 a full Eucharistic communion between the Orthodox Church of Ukraine and the Ukrainian Greek-Catholic Church. In addition, significant steps will be made this year for each Church to obtain Patriarchal status.
“In 2019, two very important elections will be held in Ukraine, namely the presidential elections in spring, and the parliamentary elections in fall. I think that Ukrainians will actively participate in both elections, as these elections will further define the future course of Ukraine and affect its capacity to realize the aspirations of its people.
“Two additional significant elections will be held in 2019, namely the elections to the European Parliament in May and the federal elections in Canada in October. In both cases, I’m convinced that Ukraine will be able to count on continued European and Canadian support, particularly in Ukraine’s defense of its territorial integrity.
“I’m also confident that trade and commerce between Canada and Ukraine will increase this year as new and profitable business opportunities in both countries are identified and exploited by investors and entrepreneurs.”
Emma Turos, Managing Director of Canada Ukraine Chamber of Commerce,
“As for the development of bilateral relations in 2019, trade in goods will steady grow. Next year we will observe a realigning of the trade balance between the countries. For instance, according to Canadian statistics, exports of goods from Ukraine to Canada in 2017 increased by around 6 percent, while in the first 10 months of 2018 (Jan-Oct 2018) compared to the same period of 2017, the growth was about 17 percent. However, there is significant potential for growth both in figures and in the variety of goods traded. Ukraine can increase the supply of furniture, home appliances, apparel and footwear, and food products – including organic products and healthy food.
“The trade in services is growing, especially in the ICT sphere, where Ukraine is one of the world leaders. The existing contracts under which Ukrainian ICT companies provide services to Canadian companies will encourage others to consider Ukraine as a reliable partner. The sale of Luxoft, a large outsourcing company, to America’s DXC Technology Co. will encourage more conservative Canadian investors to consider the Ukrainian ICT sector as a potential target for future investment.
“More Ukrainian companies will start operations in Canada, while Technical Support Projects such as CUTIS, the Canada Ukraine Trade and Investment Support Project, provide a wide range of materials on doing business with Canada, which are easily accessible to Ukrainian business and state organizations. The training of experts and a number of programs across Ukraine will ensure there is capacity building for a wide range of institutions and companies.
“With the support of the CUTIS project and the Canada Ukraine Chamber of Commerce, Ukrainian producers will participate in several trade shows – the Shoe Show in Toronto in February, SIAL (food products) in May, the ICT trade mission, and others.”
Alexandra Chyczij, National President of the Ukrainian Canadian Congress
“In 2019, the Ukrainian Canadian Congress (UCC) will continue to work with the government of Canada, Canadian officials, policymakers and all political parties on ensuring there is continued strong support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, the reform process, democratic development and deeper integration into NATO and the EU.
“Priorities for 2019 will include:
1) the strengthening of Canadian sectoral sanctions against the Russian economy, and Russian officials responsible for Russia’s war against Ukraine and the violations of the human rights of Ukrainian political prisoners and POWs illegally jailed by Russia;
2) increased military cooperation through the extension of Operation UNIFIER, Canada’s military training mission in Ukraine, and the provision by Canada to Ukraine of lethal defensive weapons;
3) increase of Canadian commercial and investment ties with Ukraine;
4) Canadian support for free and fair elections in Ukraine, including through the deployment of bilateral election observation missions to the Ukrainian presidential and parliamentary elections;
5) Continued Canadian support for structural economic and governance reforms; and
6) The liberalization of Canada’s visa policy for Ukrainian citizens traveling to Canada.”
“In October 2019, Canada will hold federal elections. The UCC will be surveying all candidates and political parties and party leaders to obtain their views on Canada’s support for Ukraine and their policy positions on Canada-Ukraine bilateral relations, and will be publicly sharing their responses.”
