Entering his third summer as Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky faces an uphill battle on the international stage.
Zelensky has promised to find a peaceful solution to Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine and reintegrate the eastern parts of Donbas currently occupied by Russia.
He has also sought to revive the question of Kremlin-occupied Crimea through the newly created Crimean Platform and improve Ukraine’s global standing through an elaborate celebration of 30 years of independence in August.
The president has also been seeking to receive a NATO Membership Action Plan and halt the construction of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Now Zelensky’s desires are running into harsh reality.
Russia isn’t prepared to halt its war against Ukraine, NATO snubbed Ukraine prior to the upcoming June 14 summit, while U.S. President Joe Biden has de facto greenlit the construction of Russia’s gas pipeline in the run-up to his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
As Zelensky puts international diplomacy at the center of his presidency, the upcoming summer months, packed with crucial meetings and events, might shape the Ukrainian political agenda for years to come.
US-Russia Summit
Without a doubt, Ukraine will be closely watching the upcoming meeting between Biden and Putin set for June 16 in Geneva.
The agenda will include Russia’s military buildup on Ukraine’s borders and the ongoing occupation of Ukrainian territories.
According to Deputy Foreign Minister Yevhen Yenin, Ukraine is working to arrange a phone call between Zelensky and Biden before the latter meets Putin in Switzerland.
Up until now, Biden and Zelensky had a single phone conversation on April 2, while Russia amassed over 100,000 troops within striking distance of Ukraine’s defensive lines, causing fears of all-out war.
Zelensky said he hoped the U.S. will not make any agreements behind Ukraine’s back. “Are there risks that they will raise some issues despite our previous agreements (with U.S.)? I am sure there are such risks,” Zelensky said at a press conference on May 20.
Despite his publicly professed “unwavering support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity,” Biden backed down on strong action against Russia, while the U.S. distanced itself from supporting Ukraine’s EuroAtlantic integration.
The U.S. has held back from imposing strong sanctions on Russia, while Biden justified his decision to waive most sanctions against the Nord Stream 2 pipeline on May 25 by saying the project was nearly complete and sanctions could hurt ties with Europe.
Biden has also stated his desire to have “a stable and predictable” relationship with Russia, the country that tried to influence the U.S. presidential elections twice.
Nord Stream 2
Ukraine’s main concern has been the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. “The risk is very high that Russia will pressure the U.S. into lifting the Nord Stream 2 sanctions,” said Zelensky on May 20.
“I think it will be a defeat for the United States and a personal defeat for President Biden. It will be a serious geopolitical win for Russia and will lead to a new redistribution of power and influence,” he added.
On June 1, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said that Berlin is in talks with Washington to resolve the issues surrounding the pipeline.
Germany has been actively backing the completion of Russia’s megaproject.
The project is 95% complete. According to Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, there are only 100 kilometers left to be built.
If completed, Nord Stream 2 would allow Russia to bypass Ukraine when transporting an annual 110 billion cubic meters of gas to European countries through Germany, depriving Ukraine of at least $1.5 billion in transit fees per year.
Russia and Ukraine have a five-year agreement through 2024 that guarantees Russia will transport no less than 40 billion cubic meters through Ukraine each year and must pay Ukraine at least $7.2 billion over the course of the contract.
NATO snub
Biden’s weak stand on Russia and Germany’s fight for Nord Stream 2 was followed by NATO’s de facto rejection of Ukraine’s aspirations to join the alliance.
Ukraine wasn’t invited to take part in the upcoming NATO summit in Brussels scheduled for June 14.
A Membership Action Plan that Ukraine has been promised for 13 years isn’t on the table.
“We absolutely do not understand how it is possible to hold a closed NATO summit amidst Russian aggressive actions against Ukraine in the Black Sea region,” said Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. “How can you not invite Ukraine, how can you not find a format to fit Ukraine’s participation in the current summit?”
In early May, the New York Post reported that the White House edited an official transcript to erase White House Deputy Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre’s statement that the U.S. supports Ukraine’s desire to join NATO.
Now, no breakthrough is expected on June 14.
Parting with Belarus
Meanwhile, Ukraine enters the summer with one more problem on its border – Belarus.
After Belarus intercepted a passenger plane flying over its territory to seize an opposition journalist on May 23, Ukraine’s relationship with its northern neighbor deteriorated.
Like the Western countries, Ukraine condemned Belarusian authorities and banned flights over Belarus, as well as electricity imports from Russia and Belarus.
Almost immediately, Belarus initiated a trade war with Ukraine and is now heading towards a complete freeze of bilateral relations.
With Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko holding Belarus at his mercy, the relationship between the two neighbors is expected to only get worse.
Ukraine is set to move forward with personal sanctions against Belarus’ top government officials, while Belarus has been testing the possibility of recognizing occupied Crimea as part of Russia, a political move much desired by Belarus’ only ally – Russia.
In June-July, Ukraine may experience shortages of bitumen, gasoline and diesel which were mainly imported from Belarus.
However, experts say Belarus is much more dependent on Ukraine economically than vice versa and can lose $3 billion per year from this trade war.
Moving from Minsk
Lacking assistance from Germany and the U.S., Ukraine is also seeking new ways to reinvent the peace talks with Russia.
One of those attempts is to move the talks out of Minsk, changing the existing Minsk agreements in the process.
The Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine includes representatives of Ukraine, Russia and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and was formed to find a peaceful solution to the war in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region after it was invaded by Russia in 2014.
In September 2014, members of the group signed the so-called Minsk Protocol, a twelve-point agreement meant to stop the war in the Donbas and reintegrate the occupied territories back into Ukraine.
Minsk II was signed in February 2015 after Russia reignited the war.
The agreement signed under military pressure has been impossible to fulfill.
The Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine has been meeting regularly since June 2014 without much to show for it.
Now, with the relationship with Belarus tarnished, Ukraine is looking for another solution. Moving the peace talks out of Minsk will most likely be followed by a change of format. Several Ukrainian diplomats have publicly mentioned Istanbul as a possible meeting place.
Zelensky said he wanted to add the U.S. as a mediator in the peace talks with Russia.
Crimean Platform
Zelensky has also been moving forward with his desire to bring the de-occupation of Crimea back on the table.
Zelensky’s biggest challenge will come on Aug. 23, when the first official meeting of the newly created Crimean Platform will take place, a day before Ukraine’s 30th Independence Day.
“It’s not a simple summit. Important documents will be signed there. Many foreign countries will be represented,” said Zelensky, acknowledging that Russia will try to derail the initiative. “Russia is reacting very sensitively to the Crimean Platform.”
People hold the Crimean Tatar national flag during the National Flag of Crimea Day in Kyiv on June 26, 2020. Ukraine will launch the Crimean Platform, an international initiative to end the occupation of Crimea, on Aug. 23.
No official statements have yet been made on the content of the meeting, however, according to Kyiv Post sources, the Platform will include cultural and political events which would be concluded by a joint declaration that is still in the making.
In February, Ukraine’s Ombudswoman Ludmyla Denisova said that 109 Ukrainian citizens were political prisoners of the Kremlin in Russia and occupied Crimea. Among them, 75 were Crimean Tatars.
Zelensky has been publicly and privately inviting foreign leaders to take part in the Crimean Platform and the celebration of Ukraine’s Independence Day, to attract attention to the question of Crimea, largely neglected in the west.
Donbas escalation
However, every Ukrainian initiative is met with a Russian threat to reignite the war in eastern Donbas.
Russia has amassed over 100,000 soldiers in occupied Crimea and along the Ukrainian border. Forty-four Ukrainian soldiers were killed in 2021 so far, despite an active ceasefire.
While Russia has publicly declared it will withdraw its troops from the Ukrainian border it didn’t follow through on its promise.
“Russia is only declaring the withdrawal of troops and fulfillment of its obligations. Only about 10,000 troops were withdrawn,” Zelensky said on June 2 during a meeting with a bipartisan group of U.S. senators.
Furthermore, Russia announced that it issued over 527,000 passports to residents of the occupied Donbas, cementing its presence in the region.
According to the president, the only way out of the conflict is to hold talks with the aggressor.
“I insist on a direct dialogue with Putin,” said Zelensky.
Whether a meeting between the two is possible will become clear in the upcoming months.
