Germany’s chancellorship remains a toss-up after neither of the two major parties secured enough votes for a clear-cut victory in the Sept. 26 federal election.
However, no matter who’ll lead Germany, the country’s foreign policy, including towards Ukraine and Russia, is not expected to change.
Leading German parties are willing to maintain modest sanctions against Russia while favoring the $11 billion Russian Nord Stream 2 pipeline that cuts out Ukraine from the European gas transit market.
“I don’t expect drastic changes, because these centrist parties don’t differ that much on questions of foreign policy,” Andreas Umland, an expert at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future think tank, told the Kyiv Post.
According to the preliminary count, the left-center Social Democratic Party (SPD) scored a narrow victory over the ruling right-center Christian Democratic Union and its sister Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU).
The Social Democrats led by German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz gained 206 seats, while the union parties led by Chancellor Angela Merkel’s successor Armin Laschet secured 196 seats.
Both parties ran on a platform of stable and predictable governance opposing foreign policy shifts. Yet both parties struck way below the 368 seats needed for a majority, thus, requiring coalition talks with other parties to fill the gap.
Four more parties will enter the Bundestag following the election: The Green Party, which gained 118 seats; the center-right Free Democratic Party (FDP), with 92 seats; the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD), with 83 seats; and the Left Party, which saw its support shrink to 39 seats in parliament.
Green Party leader Annalena Baerbock is the only party head keen on putting a plug on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which will double the existing Russian-Germany gas transit capacity to 110 billion cubic meters yearly after a months-long certification process is completed. The party has also been vocal in its harsh stance in relation to Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine.
“If the Greens will be part of the government it will be good for Ukraine,” says Umland, even though he said it’s doubtful that Nord Stream 2 can be stopped at this stage.
Coalition struggle
Within hours after polling stations closed, two parties claimed a mandate to begin coalition talks in a quest to move into Merkel’s office.
“CDU and CSU have not only lost a considerable amount of votes, but they also received the message from citizens that they should no longer be in government but should go into the opposition,” Scholz said after preliminary results were announced.
The Social Democratic Party has won an election for the first time since 2002, breaking a four-election losing streak to Merkel-led parties.
However, in Germany, the winning party is not the only one able to participate in coalition talks and it’s by no means certain that its candidate will become chancellor. The second-place Christian Democratic Union is looking to maintain its leadership role in government.
“It wasn’t always the case that the party in the first place was the one that provided the chancellor,” said Laschet after exit-polls showed his party losing 50 seats compared to previous elections in what became the party’s worst showing in history.
The tug-of-war triggered by the narrow margin might substantially slow coalition talks. Both parties are expected to reach out to smaller parties on key issues such as the economy, climate change and government posts.
A coalition may not be formed, at the earliest in mid-November or “even closer to Christmas,” says Marcel Roethig, a resident of the German Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung think tank linked to the Social Democratic Party.
He adds that the three-party coalition – Social Democratic Party, Green Party and Free Democratic Party – is currently the most likely outcome. Umland agrees, yet doesn’t rule out the current coalition of two front-running parties to lead the country for four more years.
What will change for Ukraine?
In terms of foreign policy, key issues likely discussed during coalition talks are the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, relations with the European Union, and the extent of German involvement in seeking to persuade Russia to end its ongoing war against Ukraine.
Further questions include Germany’s commitment to shield Ukraine from Russia’s energy blackmail if and when Nord Stream 2 starts pumping gas, as well as Berlin’s ongoing role in the Normandy Format peace talks to end Russia’s occupation of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.
According to Roethig, the Nord Stream 2 is a done deal, but the Social Democratic Party and the Greens will focus on providing more support for Ukraine’s energy independence by investing in the country’s renewable energy sector.
“Germany promised 125 million euros right now and in the future 1 billion euros,” said Roethig, referring to the July 21, 2021 agreement between Germany and the United States, in which U.S. President Joe Biden agreed not to impose sanctions against the Nord Stream 2 parent company or its CEO in exchange for Germany’s commitment to help Ukraine. The full text of the joint agreement is here.
Read More: Betrayal: US, Germany sell out Ukraine as Nord Stream 2 becomes inevitable
According to Roethig, the Social Democratic Party will be committed to the Normandy Format and will most likely support a Green Party member as foreign minister.
“Nothing significantly will change for Ukraine,” Roethig told the Kyiv Post, referring to chancellor candidate Scholz’s willingness to continue Germany’s leading role in the Normandy Format.
“He will for sure continue Merkel’s policy, which is a paradox because they are from opposite parties,” said Roethig, adding that as the vice chancellor, Scholz is more centrist than his left-leaning party.
Having the Green Party in government is key for Ukraine, says Umland.
The Greens’ leader Baerbock called the Nord Stream 2 pipeline a tool in the hands of Russian President Vladimir Putin and has been the only top politician to campaign on a promise to ditch the German-Russian project.
“Some seem to prefer to close their eyes to reality and hope that it won’t be so bad,” Baerbock told the Financial Times in August. “That usually doesn’t work when it comes to Russia.”
The Green Party was also vocal in its desire to pressure Russia to withdraw troops from Ukraine.
According to Umland, it’s hard to assess future German policy towards Ukraine since neither of the two major parties has developed concrete plans regarding Eastern Europe.
“No matter who will be chancellor they will continue to be involved in all formats and platforms initiated prior,” says Umland. “However, concerning Normandy, it rather depends on Putin than on Germany’s future chancellor.”
