Health ministry predicts coronavirus may only infect 2% of population

Ukraine is currently following the “optimistic scenario” for its battle with the COVID-19 pandemic sweeping the world, according to Deputy Health Minister Viktor Lyashko.

That scenario foresees no more than 2% of the population becoming infected with the novel coronavirus, which causes COVID-19, during the outbreak, Lyashko said in an interview with Ukraine’s LB.ua news site published on April 12.

It is “optimistic” because “our health care system can painlessly handle that number of patients entering intensive care units,” he said.

According to a December 2019 electronic census, Ukraine has 37.3 million residents. If 2% were to contract COVID-19, the country’s doctors could potentially have to care for 750,000 people. Not all would require intensive care.

However, based upon health ministry calculations, should more than 10% of the Ukrainian population contract COVID-19, it could lead to the collapse of the country’s medical system — “unless we stretch those 10% out over time,” Lyashko said in a message published on the ministry’s Telegram messenger channel.

As of April 12, Ukraine has identified 2,777 cases of COVID-19. The disease has killed 83 people, and 89 patients have fully recovered.

The country is still expecting the number of cases to grow significantly due to a change in testing policy, the health ministry said on Telegram. Doctors will now test all patients with pneumonia or a high fever for COVID-19. They will also test anyone who has been in contact with an infected person.

“If citizens obey the quarantine restrictions and stay home, including on the Easter holidays, Ukraine will be able significantly restrain the spread of the coronavirus,” the health ministry wrote.

Easter, one of the most important holidays for many believers in Ukraine, falls on April 19 this year for Eastern Rite churches. During the week after the holiday, Ukrainians traditionally go to the cemetery to pay tribute to their dead relatives.

Such gatherings are currently forbidden under quarantine measures that the country has imposed and gradually strengthened since March 12. As a result of the risk of COVID-19, many churches have cancelped public Easter services. In Kyiv, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said that church leaders had agreed to postpone remembrance week in the capital.

Quarantine restrictions are scheduled to expire on April 24, but will likely be extended until early May. 

In his interview with LB.ua, Lyashko said that COVID-19 infections are now expected to peak in Ukraine on April 17. After that, should the dynamic be positive, quarantine restrictions could be gradually relaxed after April 24, he said, contradicting previous statements by Prime Minister Denys Shmygal and others.