British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s visit to Kyiv this week, along with the Polish and Dutch prime ministers, was a symbol of Western support to Ukraine, which is currently staring down the barrel of a fully-fledged Russian military invasion.
Around 100,000 Russian troops are located near Ukrainian borders as well as Russian armed forces in Belarus – a Moscow satellite. Facing calls for resignation at home, due to parties he held during lockdown in Downing street, Johnson apparently decided to activate British influence in Eastern Europe.
Johnson’s predecessors made memorable trips to Ukraine too. John Major was even spotted tasting cucumbers in the Bessarabian Market in the heart of Kyiv when he came to establish closer economic relations with Kyiv. The visit came only a few years after the infamous Budapest memorandum was signed, in exchange for security assurances from the UK, USA and Russia. Security assurances that, it turns out, were hardly worth the paper the deal was inked on.
25 years on, we have a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between London and Kyiv. Compared with Major, Johnson’s task – to improve Ukrainian, indeed European security, is a far bigger challenge. But the Political, Free Trade and Strategic Partnership Agreement, inked in November 2020, has proven to be a success for Ukraine and Britain and forms the bedrock of the deepening links between these two countries.
During the last several months London has given a clear message to Moscow – there would be more sanctions if Russians would escalate the war with Ukraine. In January Foreign Secretary Liz Truss spoke about the opportunity to form a London-Warsaw-Kyiv security alliance. And this week this concept began to take shape.
On Feb. 1 Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba clarified the trilateral cooperation. It turns out that it could be the new Lublin triangle – but uniting the Atlantic, Baltic and Black seas. Just the day before Johnson visited Kyiv, Truss tweeted about her positive Covid-19 test. And a future announcement (a mooted British-Polish-Ukrainian security treaty) was postponed.
What did Johnson do in Kyiv as UK Prime Minister? He negotiated with the president of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky and his Ukrainian counterpart Denys Shmyhal. During the briefing there were very important statements.
Firstly, for Johnson the main task is not to deter Russia but support Ukrainian democratization and Ukraine’s right to choose its own path in security and foreign policy. The cost of further escalation would be extremely harmful for Russia. No wonder that Johnson has recently compared contemporary Ukraine as a new possible Chechnya for Russians in the 1990s.
Yesterday Johnson also announced additional financial aid of 88 million pounds to Ukraine.
This will strengthen the Ukrainian democratic government and its energy security. The latter issue is crucial due to the geopolitical risks of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline backed and financed by the Kremlin’s Gazprom and its vassals in Europe.
London has been an active opponent of this pipeline and there is a real chance for Ukraine to be a part of a “Baltic pipeline.” The essence of a Baltic pipeline is to transport Norwegian gas to Poland, and it might be extended eastwards. And London could be the facilitator in the energy security of Warsaw and Kyiv.
During the briefing, Johnson emphasized the role of sanctions in preventing a full-scale invasion, which would only be implemented if “Russian soldiers enter Ukrainian territory.” However, Russia already invaded Ukraine in 2014 and we are discussing the chances of further destabilization by Moscow on the local level now.
President Zelensky was grateful for the British support but couldn’t help talking once again about his efforts to curb the oligarchs.
Speaking about security cooperation between London and Kyiv, the financial support (1.7 bln pounds loan) and sending NLAW anti-tank missile systems to Ukrainian armed forces should be mentioned The loan would make a new Ukrainian fleet possible – not only from the technical side but also the formation of a navy culture with revisited traditions.
It is also worth mentioning operation Orbital, beginning in 2015 as a result of which 22,000 Ukrainian soldiers and officers have been trained by British military personnel. It is bringing the Ukrainian army closer to NATO standards and making the exchange of experience among soldiers more frequent.
Yehor Brailian. Historian (PhD Candidate), international news journalist. Interests: Brexit, Ukraine-NATO, climate and security.
