Hennady Kernes, the controversial mayor of Kharkiv, has been the eastern city’s undisputed strongman since 2006.
Despite all the corruption scandals around him, he is poised to score yet another victory in the Oct. 25 mayoral election in Kharkiv, which has a population of 1.4 million people.
No strong competitors have emerged for his rule, and President Volodymyr Zelensky and his party have failed to find a viable rival due to their plummeting approval rating.
After initially planning to “re-boot” local elites, Zelensky’s administration appears to have opted for an alliance with the toxic mayors of some of Ukraine’s biggest cities, including Kharkiv.
Kernes’ press office and Zelensky’s administration did not respond to requests for comment.
Dmytro Bulakh, head of the Kharkiv Anti-Corruption Center, said that the political situation in Kharkiv poses a threat to pro-Western, pro-Ukrainian and reformist forces.
“Now it’s the worst situation in elections in Kharkiv that I can remember,” Bulakh told the Kyiv Post. “It’s a consequence of the fact that pro-European ideas were discredited (by ex-President Petro Poroshenko’s administration) and then the fact that there’s a big disappointment in Zelensky. The pro-European electorate has shrunk because of that.”
This is all good for Kernes, a conservative and, in the past, a pro-Russian politician. Kernes has been Kharkiv’s mayor since 2010, and headed the city council before that.
The only thing adding intrigue to the Kharkiv election is Kernes’ health condition.
In September Kernes was transported for treatment in Germany. Ukrainian media reported that he had contracted COVID-19.
Kernes has been in bad health condition since he survived an assassination attempt in April 2014. He has used a wheelchair since then.
“(Kernes’ disease) added extra turmoil and intrigue. But it can influence the election results only in one case — if Kernes is physically unable to be mayor,” political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko told the Kyiv Post.
Opinion polls
Kernes, businessman Borys Feldman and Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleksiy Kucher would get 32.8 percent, 22.5 percent and 7.8 percent in the mayoral election, respectively, and anti-corruption activist Ihor Chernyak would trail behind with 4.5 percent, according to a Ukrainian Sociology Group poll conducted on Sept. 2 through Sept. 9.
The Kernes Bloc, the pro-Russian Opposition Platform-For Life party and Zelensky’s Servant of the People would get 31.3 percent, 17.8 percent and 6.8 percent, respectively, in the city council election. Ex-Kharkiv Oblast Governor Yulia Svetlichanya’s Bloc, blogger Anatoly Shariy’s party, ex-President Petro Poroshenko’s European Solidarity, Ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s Batkivshchyna and businesswoman Kira Rudyk’s Voice are trailing behind with 5.8 percent, 4.8 percent, 2 percent, 1.6 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively.
Pro-Russian candidates
Apart from his popularity, Kernes can count on his control of election commissions in Kharkiv, Fesenko said.
Voting fraud accusations have frequently been voiced during Kernes’ tenure, although he denied them. On Sept. 1, the city administration prompted a scandal by sending gifts with Kernes’ logo to Kharkiv schools.
Kernes’ strongest opponent Feldman represents the biggest pro-Russian party in Ukraine, the Opposition Platform-For Life.
He has switched his political allegiance easily: from ex-President Viktor Yanukovych to Tymoshenko to Yanukovych again to Nash Krai, a moderately pro-Russian party linked to Poroshenko’s administration through former staff members.
Another candidate competing for the pro-Russian electorate is Mykhailo Dobkin. He was not included in Ukrainian Sociology Group rating because he announced his candidacy in Kharkiv recently after abandoning plans to run in the Kyiv mayoral election.
Dobkin used to be a long-term ally of Kernes but they fell out in recent years. He was the mayor of Kharkiv in 2006 to 2010, governor of Kharkiv Oblast in 2010 to 2014 and a member of the Ukrainian parliament in 2014 to 2019.
In 2014 Dobkin received 3 percent in presidential elections and won in one electoral district in Kharkiv Oblast – the only one in Ukraine where Poroshenko did not get a majority.
Dobkin likely decided to run in Kharkiv due to the news of Kernes’ disease, Fesenko said.
“Dobkin wants to return to big politics a lot,” he added. “And fate has given him a chance.”
If Kernes is unable to run due to his disease, Dobkin and Feldman may compete in a run-off, according to Fesenko.
Meanwhile, blogger Anatoly Shariy’s party targets mostly young pro-Russian voters disappointed with Zelensky. It also has a chance to get elected, given that Kharkiv is one of Ukraine’s most pro-Russian regions.
Other candidates
Another candidate, former lawyer Kucher, has been governor of Kharkiv Oblast since 2019 and represents Zelensky’s party. In 2019 he was briefly a lawmaker from the Servant of the People elected from the region.
However, his chance to get into the run-off is not high, according to analysts.
“Kucher has failed to become an influential and popular figure in Kharkiv,” Fesenko said.
Kucher and Kernes used to exchange critical remarks but now the relations between the central government and the mayor appear to have improved.
“Kernes understands that it’s better to be friends with the president and avoid conflicts,” Fesenko argued.
He said that the Kernes Bloc and the Servant of the People could try to form a coalition in the city council after the election.
Bulakh said that Kernes and the Zelensky administration have closely cooperated, and some Kernes associates are running on the Servant of the People’s list.
Another local heavyweight, Svetlichnaya, is not running for mayor but her party has a good chance to be elected to the city council.
She was a deputy and close associate of Ihor Rainin, a Poroshenko ally and governor of Kharkiv Oblast, in 2014 to 2016 and governor of the region herself in 2016 to 2019. Surprisingly, Rainin became the head of the Kharkiv branch of the-pro-Russian Opposition Platform-For Life in 2019.
Now Svetlichnaya is positioning herself as a centrist candidate and is trying to attract Kharkiv’s pro-Ukrainian electorate.
Chernyak and Bulakh, pro-Western reformers from the Kharkiv Anti-Corruption Center, have joined the Svetlichnaya party’s campaign. Chernyak is running as a mayoral candidate from the party, and Bulakh is aiming for a city council seat.
Fesenko also argued that European Solidarity and Batkivshshcyna had failed to field strong mayoral candidates in Kharkiv. European Solidarity has weak positions in Kharkiv due to Poroshenko’s high disapproval rating in the region.
Kernes controversies
Kernes has a highly controversial reputation. Bulakh has consistently lambasted alleged corruption in municipal tenders and construction in Kharkiv – accusations that Kernes denies.
Kernes has also been charged with kidnapping two EuroMaidan activists, torturing them and threatening to kill them in January 2014. He denies these accusations.
Poroshenko’s administration used the case to keep Kernes on a leash instead of trying to genuinely prosecute him, according to Fesenko.
In 2018, a Poltava court closed the kidnapping case. Kernes’ critics attribute the case’s closure to a deal with Poroshenko to support his re-election.
However, in January 2020 the Poltava Court of Appeal re-opened the kidnapping case.
Kernes has also been investigated for allegedly embezzling up to Hr 15 billion ($557 million) by allocating land to fake cooperatives. However, he has not been officially charged, and chances are low that the case will go to trial. Kernes has denied all accusations of wrongdoing.
