Only about 5% of tested Ukrainians have immunity to COVID-19, according to the results of over 10,000 tests conducted by private laboratory Synevo.
Synevo’s data comes from tests performed on every client who voluntarily took an antibody test since the start of the outbreak, which means it may not be a representative sample. Still, it offers an interesting window into how the pandemic has affected Ukraine.
Ukraine’s outbreak was relatively small-scale compared to some other European countries. Out of the country’s population of around 38 million, there have been 52,043 total COVID-19 cases, of which 25,898 are currently active as of the morning of July 10. In total, 1,345 people have died of the virus.
However, the percentage of people with the specific Immunoglobin G (IgG) antibodies, which develop about a week after infection by the virus, is comparable to other countries with larger outbreaks.
A recent study of 60,000 people in Spain revealed that about 5% of the population had the antibodies. About 253,000 people have become infected and 28,401 have died in the country, which has a population of 46 million. In late May, the U.K. National Statistics Office also estimated a 5% antibody prevalence. About 288,000 people have been infected in the U.K. and 44,602 died out of a population of 66 million.
“The results of the first month and a half of testing in Ukraine showed that the statistics in our country are commensurate with the situation in the world,” said Nikolay Butenko, Synevo’s development director. “This suggests that there is virtually no collective immunity in Ukraine today.”
The low percentages in many countries have made health officials around the world doubt that we are even close to achieving herd immunity to the disease. Moreover, scientists are unsure exactly how long antibodies grant immunity to COVID-19.
In Ukraine, as in other countries, the level of immunity varied widely by region. Western Ukraine boasted the highest level of immunity, at an overall 11%, with individual cities like Kovel in Volyn Oblast or Mukachevo in Zakarpattya Oblast possibly even climbing to 20-30%.
IgG antibodies were found in 13% of tested clients in Lutsk, 14% in Ivano-Frankivsk, 14% in Chernivtsi and 13% in Rivne. Residents of these regions will be better-protected against the second wave of the pandemic.
In the south, however, the average level of collective immunity is a mere 2%, which means that the population there had barely any contact with the virus and will be at risk. Some of the lowest immunities were detected in Odesa with 2%, Mykolaiv with 2% and Kherson with 1%.
Kyiv had a relatively low level of immunity, too — only 3% of clients tested positive for antibodies in the city, and 7% tested positive in the region.
Antibody prevalence also varied by age. About 9% of children under the age of 7 had the antibodies; 3.5% of people aged 8-20; 4% of people aged 20-40; 6% of people aged 41-60; and 7% of people over 60.
Synevo also tested for IgA Antibodies, which indicate that the disease is in its active phase, finding them in 8.6% of tested people. The highest percentage was detected in the west — 15% in Lutsk, 16% in Ivano-Frankivsk and 16% in Chernivtsi.
The lowest IgA prevalence was in the south, with 5% in Odesa and 1% in Mykolaiv.
