First, a brazen naval attack shook Ukrainians; then their government’s response confused them.
On Nov. 25, Russia’s coast guard attacked and captured three Ukrainian naval boats and their crews as they tried to cross from the Black Sea into the Azov Sea through the Kerch Strait. The naval vessels were heading for the Ukrainian ports of Berdyansk and Mariupol.
The attack came after months of tension in the Azov Sea, where Russia had threatened Ukrainian merchant shipping, effectively blockading the country’s ports and causing coastal cities to fear invasion. Use of the small sea is supposed to be equal between the two nations, according to a 2003 treaty, but Russia’s military presence there is much larger.
The assault also marked a new stage in the war Russia has been waging against Ukraine since 2014, which has seen 10,300 people killed and 1.5 million others displaced. For the first time, the Russians attacked openly, under their tricolor flag, not hiding behind proxies or stripping their soldiers of their insignia.
Despite the brazen attack, the international community has so far expressed concern but offered no tougher action against Russia.
Ukraine’s response came from President Petro Poroshenko, who proposed the introduction of 60 days of martial law throughout the country.
Parliament watered that down to 30 days in 10 oblasts, and also wrung out a promise that the presidential elections would go ahead as planned on March 31.
But the imposition of martial law has brought more concern than reassurance, as Ukraine’s leadership has been unable to clearly explain its purpose and what it would entail.
Some also suspected the imposition of martial law was a political trick meant to boost Poroshenko’s chances of re-election in 2019. In fact, political experts say, it could also help the ratings of the pro-Russian candidates who promise to end the war.
And while there are indications that martial law will change little in practice, it has already harmed Ukraine’s international reputation, and the damage to the investment climate will probably last far longer than the 30 days of war footing. Russia’s effective blockade of Azov Sea ports will add to the economic pain.
What happened
The current crisis erupted after two Ukrainian navy boats and one tug attempted to travel from Odesa to ports in Berdyansk and Mariupol to reinforce Ukraine’s small Azov Sea fleet.
When they tried to enter the Kerch Strait, which connects the Black and Azov seas, they were stopped and fired on by Russian coast guard ships, backed by fighter jets and helicopters.
Despite the Kerch Strait legally being shared territory of both countries, Russia seized full control of when it opened the Crimean Bridge over the strait in May. The bridge connects Russia to Crimea, the Ukrainian territory Russia invaded in 2014.
Since May, Russia has been blocking and delaying Ukrainian ships and international vessels heading to Ukraine’s ports in the Azov Sea.
Russia captured the three Ukrainians boats and arrested all 24 Ukrainians aboard for “illegally crossing Russia’s border.” The sham charge is based on Russia’s bogus claim that Crimea, and the waters near it, are Russian territory. Under international law, they are not.
Ukraine responds
Following the attack, Poroshenko proposed to introduce martial law in Ukraine. The proposal came as a surprise: Over four years of war, the president has more than once rejected the idea of declaring martial law, saying it would threaten democracy in Ukraine and cut off essential loans from the International Monetary Fund.
But now, Poroshenko said, intelligence indicated a Russian military buildup near the borders of Ukraine. Martial law, according to the president, would help fight back a full-scale invasion if it came.
After hours of emotional debate, parliament passed a bill on martial law on Nov. 26, a day after the naval attack. It was introduced for 30 days in the 10 oblasts that border Russia, the sea, and Transnistria, the Russian-backed breakaway region of Moldova.
Legal uncertainty
However, when the lawmakers eventually passed the bill on martial law late on Nov. 26, they hadn’t even seen the final text — they had only heard an oral presentation by Poroshenko and parliament speaker Andriy Parubiy.
On the next day, the nation had no idea if the new law was already in force.
The confusion came because Poroshenko’s said in a televised address that martial law would be implemented at 9 a. m. on Nov. 28, while his decree introduced martial law at 2 p. m. on Nov. 26 — before the martial law bill was even passed.
It was eventually implemented only on the afternoon of Nov. 28. By then, lawyers were already arguing over what the new law actually meant.
Point 3 of the decree stipulates that certain constitutional rights and freedoms, including freedom of speech, freedom of movement and freedom to strike “may be limited” for the period of martial law. Poroshenko’s critics accused him of preparing to crack down on civic activists and the free press.
However, Poroshenko in parliament said limitations on rights would only be imposed in the event of “Russian aggression on the land” in areas outside of the Donbas.
Nothing new?
In fact, residents of the frontline areas in the Donbas experienced situations akin to martial law in the first years of Russia’s war against Ukraine. They had their cars requisitioned by the military, they had and still have soldiers living in their houses, and their schools were occupied by the military.
Many also helped the military with labor and money — while there was no legal obligation for them to do so.
Moreover, since early 2015, many cities and towns of Donbas have been governed by military and civilian administrations — authorities that are very similar to the military administrations envisaged by the legislation on martial law.
Nevertheless, Poroshenko said no new military administrations would be created now, and the oblasts under martial law will continue to be governed by civilian authorities. Neither will there be any immediate mobilization.
Military expert Vyacheslav Tseluiko agreed that martial law was already partly in effect in the Donbas.
He said the current regime of martial law in the 10 oblasts was “an experiment” that would not help the army, but would rather allow checks to be made on how various state bodies work when there is a military threat. It’s a kind of massive civil defense exercise, he said.
“I don’t expect any fundamental changes during these 30 days,” he said.
Members of National Militia nationalist movement hold military drills on Nov. 27 on the outskirts of Kyiv. The National Militia called on to mobilization of war veterans and reservists in response to Russian aggression in the Black Sea on Nov. 25, 2018. (UNIAN) (source)
Electoral gains
But martial law will likely make a difference in the political arena.
Politicians from various sides loudly insisted on Nov. 26 that Poroshenko had proposed to introduce martial law for the purpose of postponing the elections until he can improve his ratings. In fact, Prosecutor General Yuriy Lutsenko said in an interview with Ukrainska Pravda in early November that some “hot heads” were considering imposing martial law as a way to postpone the elections.
To assuage such fears, Poroshenko reduced the period of martial law from 60 days to 30 days. Martial law is to end on Dec. 26, which would allow the presidential election campaign to start as scheduled on Dec. 31. Parliament also passed a decree that presidential elections will take place on March 31.
Lawmaker Sergii Leshchenko, a critic of the president despite serving in the president’s dominate 135-member faction, called the vote a win for parliament that had foiled Poroshenko’s plan to postpone the elections.
But imposing martial law still may bring Poroshenko some gains.
A poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, the Razumkov Center, and the Rating Group published in early November showed Poroshenko trailed former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and TV comedian Volodymyr Zelensky, with just 10 percent support. He also had the highest anti-rating — nearly 50 percent of voters said they definitely wouldn’t vote for the president.
The same poll showed that Ukrainians placed full-scale war with Russia ninth in the ranking of threats facing the country, far behind economic stagnation and mass emigration of people from the country — which many blame Poroshenko for. Now the debate has changed, and the Russian threat is the No. 1 topic discussed in the media.
President Petro Poroshenko talks to soldiers during the military drills in Chernihiv Oblast on Nov. 28, 2018. Bordering with Russia, northern Chernihiv Oblast is one of 10 oblasts where martial law is effect until Dec. 26. (Mykola Lazarenko) (AFP / Ukrainian presidential press service)
Martial law will predominantly affect the eastern and southern regions, where Poroshenko has the lowest rating of 4 percent. If residents there are angered by martial law, Poroshenko has not much to lose, but the move might build his support among his core electorate elsewhere.
“With the threat of Russian aggression it’s clear that Poroshenko’s rating will increase,” said a sociologist working on polls who wasn’t allowed to make public comments because of corporate restrictions.
The sociologist believes martial law will bring a “polarization of the nation” and so will also increase the rating of the openly pro-Russian Yuriy Boiko, the leader of the Opposition Bloc, whose core support is in the southern and eastern parts of Ukraine.
The pro-Russian Boiko, a former associate of runaway President Viktor Yanukovych, would be the easiest competitor for Poroshenko to defeat in a second round of voting in the presidential election. Poroshenko’s motto “army, language, faith” shows that he has already opted for a strategy of polarizing the electorate to boost his chances of re-election.
Elections postponed
Martial law will also postpone local elections that were supposed to be held in 123 merged communities all over Ukraine on Dec. 23. This will affect more than 500,000 people in the newly formed local communities. The Central Election Commission has yet to decide when the elections could be held. Valentyna Romanova, an expert in regional policy, told the Kyiv Post there is little chance the elections will be held this year.
Strange war
Ukrainians reacted to martial law as they usually do when faced with uncertainty — by buying U.S dollars. That lead to an abrupt fall in the value of the national currency on Nov. 26–27, but on Nov. 28 the exchange rate was almost back to normal as the nation regained its composure.
There were some questions over why, with the country supposedly on the verge of full-scale war, Poroshenko didn’t announce a mobilization. There was also no cutting of diplomatic relations with Russia, no halt of trade with Russia, and a Kyiv-Moscow train is still running.
Poroshenko and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin did exchange some unpleasantries — Poroshenko called on Putin to “get out of Ukraine” while Putin accused Poroshenko of trying to use martial law to boost his ratings.
But Putin’s own approval rating recently reached a five-year low, so a small escalation of his war with Ukraine would benefit him politically. According to a poll by the Moscow-based FOM polling agency conducted in September, only some 45 percent of Russians said they would vote for Putin. Putin had the same support in late 2013, just before the Russian invasion of Crimea.
Russian political analyst Andrei Piontkovsky, writing in his blog on Ukraine’s Novoye Vremya news website, that Ukraine imposing martial law was unlikely to surprise or anger Putin. If Ukraine’s authorities wanted to confront him, they would instead arrest his friend, the pro-Russian Ukrainian politician Viktor Medvedchuk.
Medvedchuk is currently in his strongest political position since 2004, when he was head of the Presidential Administration under Ukraine’s second president, Leonid Kuchma. According to media investigations, Medvedchuk regularly meets with Poroshenko.
“I wish they would rather arrest Medvedchuk instead of formally imposing martial law,” Piontkovsky said. “That would indeed be a surprise for Putin.”
