Ukraine’s parliament will debate the imposition of martial law at a closed session at 4 p.m. Kyiv time on Nov. 26 – a measure proposed in the early hours by President Petro Poroshenko following Russia’s capture of three Ukrainian naval vessels near the Kerch Strait on the previous day.
The measures envisaged would grant more powers to military commanders and limit civilians’ freedom. They are detailed in the law “On the Legal Regime of Martial Law,” which was passed in 2015. The particular measures to be taken will be listed in a presidential decree that was published at about 3 p.m. on the president’s website. The nation will likely find out more details after the parliament vote.
Election experts polled by the Kyiv Post said martial law imposed for two months, as proposed by Poroshenko, would most likely cause the presidential elections scheduled for March 2019 and local elections scheduled for December to be postponed. The elections could be held only if the president stipulated in his decree that they must be held, or if parliament passes a special law to hold them.
If martial law is extended, the dates of the parliamentary elections, scheduled for October 2019, would probably also be affected, experts say.
At the same time, the military experts said martial law would not bring any immediate reinforcements to the military.
“Ukraine could show it is firm in defending its interests without limiting the rights of civilians,” military expert Vyacheslav Tseluiko told the Kyiv Post.
Military implications
With Russia’s war against Ukrainian in its fifth year now, and more than 10,300 killed, many Ukrainians question why this law should be implemented only now.
Tseluiko said Russia demonstrated its aggression against Ukraine when it annexed Crimea in March 2014 and when its forces invaded Ukrainian territory in the Donbas in August 2014, killing hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers.
The incident on Nov. 25, when Russian ships attacked three speedboats, captured 23 sailors and wounded six of them, according to Ukrainian military, (three, according to the Russian military), is less serious than other acts of aggression by Russia against Ukraine, Tseluiko said.
“Now, when the incident is less serious than the direct participation of Russian military in Ilovaisk, opponents of the president will blame him of attempts to usurp power or at least to extend his power,” he said.
He added that it would be more effective in the current situation to organize a military mobilization, send more troops to the east and south of Ukraine, or hold the urgent military drills.
Taras Chmut, a naval expert and marine veteran, said the martial law would bring “no changes for Ukraine’s fleet,” which will remain in a dire state. Despite Russia halting and searching Ukrainian merchant shipping in the Azov Sea since spring, Ukraine’s military commanders have failed to improve the state of the fleet until now, Tseluiko said.
“The army policy regarding its staff leads to the loss of the best military personnel,” he said.
Electoral implications
Parliament should start the election campaign with a special ruling on Dec. 31. But if parliament approves martial law for two months, the elections will have to be postponed, according to the law.
“While the limitation of civil freedoms has to be clarified any time when martial law is imposed, the norm of not holding elections is automatically envisaged there,” said Taras Shevchenko, an elections expert at the Reanimation Package of Reforms.
But he added the elections still may happen if the lawmakers make amendments to the bill on martial law, or allow the elections to go ahead in at least part of Ukraine.
Moreover, when martial law postpones parliamentary elections, the legislation requires that they be held within 90 days of martial law ending. But the law doesn’t explain how to hold presidential elections if they are postponed by martial law. Shevchenko said if this happens, it will be up to the Constitutional Court to explain when Ukraine should hold postponed presidential elections.
Oleksandr Chernenko, a former elections expert and now a lawmaker from the Bloc of President Petro Poroshenko faction in parliament, said martial law “will most likely postpone the elections” but lawmakers might still change the law.
Chernenko said parliament would take a decision on the imposition of martial law on Nov. 26. The law requires only one round of voting for the president’s decree to be approved.
Political implications
Poroshenko’s critics say he wants to postpone the elections because of his low approval rating. According to a recent poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, the Razumkov Center, and the Rating Group sociological organization, he had 10 percent of support – third after former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and TV comedian Volodymyr Zelensky.
Poroshenko also had the highest anti-rating of all the candidates, according to the same poll, which would mean he would most likely lose in the second round of voting.
Lawmakers, even those from the same factions, had different views about the prospect of martial law ahead of the vote. Oksana Syroyid from the 25-member Samopomich faction said martial law was “a way to manipulate the presidential elections, and if necessary impose a bit of dictatorship.”
But her fellow Samopomich lawmaker Semen Semenchenko, and Samopomich party leader and Lviv Mayor Andriy Sadovy, who also is a candidate for president, supported the call for martial law.
Andriy Senchenko from Yulia Tymoshenko’s 20-member Batkivshchyna faction, the president’s political opponents, accused Poroshenko of attempting to impose a scenario of “unlimited extension of his powers, and unlimited war.”
Tymoshenmko herself, however, has so far avoided making any comments about the possible imposition of martial law.
