Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Ihor Dolhov, who will be speaking at the Nov. 29 Kyiv Post Tiger Conference, says the country’s plan to reform in line with NATO standards contains some 600 items.
In an interview with the Kyiv Post, Dolhov said work on the plan is progressing “day-to-day” and involves a vast number of people from both the U.S.-led military alliance and from within Ukraine. Dolhov will be participating in the security & defense part of the Kyiv Post conference at the Kyiv Hilton Hotel. Details of the conference are here.
“We have a work plan comprised of roughly 600 points. It’s a huge amount of work and it cannot be done by one office. That’s why the ministers established the committee for reforms, whose main task is to look to the future,” Dolhov said. “It is an open-ended organization and structure. Which involves not only the committee for reforms but also volunteers, our advisers from NATO and some members of parliament.”
Last summer, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko set 2020 as a deadline for reaching NATO standards. But even if that goal is achieved, experts say because of the ongoing war in eastern Ukraine with Russian-backed militants, actual membership in the the alliance is likely to prove elusive.
Currently, there is no consensus among NATO members about whether Ukraine should be able to join the club.
“There is an illusion that if Ukraine only implements all the NATO standards, then has a referendum, then makes an official political application, then Ukraine will eventually get this membership action plan and enter NATO,” according to Andreas Umland, a senior research fellow at Institute for Euro-Atlantic Сooperation in Kyiv. “I think once the conflict with Russia is over, if there’s a regime change or policy re-orientation in Moscow, then Ukraine has a chance again. But then, in a way, Ukraine won’t need NATO membership that much anymore.”
However, in the Ukrainian capital, officials disagree.
“Of course we can join,” Dolhov told the Kyiv Post.
The deputy minister points to growth in the size of Ukraine’s armed forces as a sign of progress. He also says the increase in career or “contract” soldiers, and the corresponding decrease in the use of conscription, is positive.
“We’ve delivered already,” he said. “With the assistance of NATO and by doing it ourselves. Look at the figures. Before the aggression, the Ukrainian army was 150,000 strong, now its 250,000. It’s almost doubled. And look at the number of those who have signed contracts. The army is growing more and more professional.”
When asked by the Kyiv Post if he feels confident the country will make the 2020 deadline, Dolhov refused to give a definitive answer. “Well, I feel that it’s..a lot of work,” he said.
Paradigm shift
Although Russia’s war against the Donbas has driven improvements in the military sphere, elsewhere there are still deeply-rooted barriers which need to be overcome. Chief among them is the unwillingness of Ukrainian individuals and institutions to open up to Western partners.
“Reforms are painful. They are really painful and people from the West, we should understand this. That to change from ‘the good old ways’ means sacrifices. It means leaving your comfort zone in a big way,” Ove Urup-Madsen, a program manager at the NATO Liaison Office in Ukraine, told the Kyiv Post. “So when we from the Western side, from NATO, are advocating NATO standards and things that they don’t understand, it seems like this huge monster.”
For progress to be made, Urup-Madsen believes there needs to be a fundamental change of mindset from those at the top. Executives and managers need to learn to better delegate authority and stop seeing the next generation as a threat to their own positions.
“I see super, super smart people, from the ages of 23 to 35. This is what is going to carry this country in a short few years. They ask the right questions, they are motivated and they work hard but they are just not given access,” he said.
Time will tell
Ukraine has a little over three years left to meet its target of attaining NATO standards. Officials from both sides suggest big challenges remain if that goal is to be achieved, but also stress that expecting results to come quickly would be a mistake.
“If you want to do anything in Ukraine, you’re here for the long haul. It’s not going to be done in one or two years,” says Urup-Madsen. “If you don’t have the patience for that, don’t even start. Let other people do it who are here for the duration.”
