As Kremlin forces remain massed on the border of Ukraine and the top five nuclear powers renew a nuclear weapon non-usage agreement, it is appropriate to review the security guarantees that were given to Ukraine on Dec. 5, 1994, upon signing the Budapest Memorandum.
Then, in return for Ukraine accepting a nuclear-weapon-free status, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, and United States, as guarantor nations, agreed to “respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine” and to “refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine”.
The guarantors also agreed to refrain from utilising economic coercion against Ukraine and to assist nuclear-weapon-free Ukraine in cases of future acts or threats of aggression.
Fast forward to 2014, and the Russian Federation relied on military might to invade Ukraine’s Crimea and Donbas, thus transgressing the security guarantees that Russia had given to Ukraine in 1994.
The most recent threatening Russian military build-up on Ukraine’s border has brought more empathy and support for Kyiv from its friends and allies. On Nov. 10, a statement in the context of the U.S.-Ukraine Strategic Partnership recognized “Ukraine’s unique contribution to nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament,” and reaffirmed “its commitments under the Budapest Memorandum”.
Both nations expressed their intention to “hold Russia accountable for such aggression and violations of international law, including the seizure and attempted annexation of Crimea and the Russia-led armed conflict in parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine”.
But it is not so easy to hold a nuclear power to account; especially when it is massing forces on its neighbour’s border and has demanding “security guarantees” that weaken Ukraine’s ability to make decisions as an independent nation.
Russia is insisting that NATO alliance does not permit membership to Ukraine and does not deploy arms on Ukrainian soil.
In multiple statements, Ukraine, the US, NATO and various allies have been clear that Ukraine is a sovereign nation with the legal right to choose its own security arrangements and alliances. They strongly stated that they support Ukraine’s legal rights and they will support its defence with measures to deter further Russian aggression, and by engaging in diplomatic dialogue to seek peaceful solutions according to international norms.
Such talks are to be held next week in Geneva, Brussels and Vienna.
In a prelude to the talks, the presidents of the U.S. and Russia had a telephone call in a “serious and substantive” tone on Dec. 30, according to the US account of the call.
Yuri Ushakov, aide to the Russian leader was quoted commenting on the call in TASS the following day: “It’s very important that President Biden stressed several times during the conversation that a nuclear war cannot be started and it cannot be won either.”
A U.S. defence official who did not wish to be identified related that in the situation of uncertainty connected to the concentration of Russian forces on Ukraine’s border, and the significant deterrent, defensive and diplomatic support that Ukraine is receiving, the potential for conflict between nuclear powers has been rising.
As it was unknown what conventional or unconventional weaponry Russian military leaders might, or might not, be considering deploying, it was necessary to negotiate. In this context, President Biden had to confront the nuclear threat option to take it off the table and agree with Russia that diplomacy was a preferable to the threat of a nuclear confrontation.
Four days after the Biden-Putin call a joint statement was issued by the U.S., Russia, the UK, China and France stating:
“We affirm that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.“
The signatories expressed a willingness to continue diplomatic approaches “to avoid military confrontations,” to “strengthen stability and predictability,” to “increase mutual understanding and confidence” building, and to “prevent an arms race that would benefit none and endanger all”.
This statement was signed by the same nuclear-armed nations that guaranteed or affirmed the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine in 1994.
