A Christmas ceasefire was agreed on the evening of Dec 22 between the parties to the Trilateral Contact Group;
Ukraine, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and the Russian Federation, according to multiple press statements.
Let’s take a look at the background to the agreement to implement it.
Officially or not, depending on how you look at it, Russia’s involvement is vital to a ceasefire. On the one hand, Russia shows an “unwillingness to recognize itself as a party to this war. Its role at the negotiating table, it claims, is to insist on talking to the separatists in Donbas.
And who are these separatists?
“In the occupied territories, everything is run by Russian officers and Russian officials,” wrote President Zelensky on Dec. 14.
“Between 600 and 800 Russian officers are permanently stationed in the temporarily occupied east of Ukraine“
according to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine in a public social media statement on Dec. 20.
Russian Federation spokespeople have repeatedly referred to 'rebels' and 'separatists' in Donbas and a 'civil war' in Ukraine while saying that Russia is an independent peace mediator in the Minsk 2 peace process.
What Russia has said and done
This accusation and denial verbal information battle between Ukraine and Russia about the origins of the invasion and occupation of Ukraine's Donbas was well demonstrated in March 2021. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Moscow was very concerned about increasing violence in Ukraine between what he called 'rebels' and Ukrainian government forces. He called on France and Germany to use their influence with Ukraine to ensure that conflict did not increase along the contact line.
In reply to Peskov's comment, Ukrainian officials called on Russia to order the forces it controls in Donbas to observe the agreed ceasefire, according to media reports at that time.
While Kremlin policy denies direct involvement in Donbas, some leading Russian officers and officials openly boast about their roles in planning, invading and occupying Crimea and Eastern Ukraine.
Igor Girkin, nom de guerre 'Strelkov' (Shooter), was an on the ground commander of the Russian invasion force of Donbas according to his own statements on his social media posts. Ukrainian Intelligence services have referred to him as a Russian GRU officer.
Still active on Twitter from Moscow, Girkin re-tweeted a post on Dec. 22, that names and accuses him, Sergey Dubinskiy, Oleg Pulastov and Leonid Kharchenko of ordering a BUK missile system from Russia into Ukraine; and that this BUK missile system downed passenger flight MH17 with the loss of 298 lives, according to evidence presented to the court in The Netherlands this week.
The Dutch court’s web page gives an outline of the charge against Girkin saying that, “The Netherlands, Malaysia, Australia, Belgium and Ukraine are working together to conduct the international criminal investigation of the cause of the crash of flight MH17 and those thought to be responsible.” The court hearings continue this week while Girkin is home in Russia.
And what they say will happen
Vladislav Surkov, former aide to President Vladimir Putin, claimed in an interview republished in the Irish Times in June 2021, that it was his long-standing plan to re-claim Ukraine and the Black Sea Region for Russia.
He claimed that the invasions of Crimea and Donbas, and other areas of Ukraine were his planning and his operational responsibility and he declared that he is both proud and honoured to have been part of these operations.
In the same interview, Surkov described the Minsk agreement as a peace deal signed by Russia, Ukraine and pro-Russian rebels as an action that gave legitimacy to the division of Ukraine.
Outside of Minsk
French and German facilitators, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) are clear to Ukraine and to Russia in repeated statements that the Minsk Agreement is the only deal that is on the table and it must be implemented as a path to peace. However, when it comes to peace over the holidays, all avenues are explored.
“Ukraine is constantly initiating steps to advance in the process of ending the war and reaching a peaceful settlement in Donbas and is ready to negotiate in any format with the participation of the Russian Federation.“
stated Volodymyr Zelensky to Ukrainian ambassadors on Tuesday Dec. 21. in Ivano-Frankivsk. Realistically the President said he hoped for a ceasefire before Christmas, a possible release of prisoners and free movement of people in peace along the contact line.
However, this Christmas peace agreement occurs concurrently with the build-up of Russian forces within and near Ukraine. “There are 122,000 Russian servicemen deployed at a 200-km distance to the borders of Ukraine, as well as another 143,500 at a distance of 400 km.” according to a statement on the same day by Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine.
