For the residents of Lviv, the unofficial capital of western Ukraine, local elections are about new kindergartens, city planning and waste management.
Yet, for Ukraine’s political scene, these elections are about ex-President Petro Poroshenko strengthening his standing and trying to establish himself as the leader of the pro-Western opposition to President Volodymyr Zelensky. Western Ukraine, and Lviv, are key to this task.
“Poroshenko needs (to win) Lviv to cement his support in western Ukraine,” says Anatoliy Oktysiuk, a political expert at Democracy House think tank.
The former president vigorously seeks a political revival.
The year 2019 was full of losses for Poroshenko. Zelensky crushed his hopes for the second term. In parliament, Poroshenko’s party faction shrinked from 132 to 27 seats.
Yet one year later, Poroshenko’s political future looks brighter. In the Oct. 25 local elections, Poroshenko’s European Solidarity party won the city council elections in Kyiv and Lviv.
Now, Lviv mayoral candidate Oleh Synutka, representing the European Solidarity party, has a real chance at winning the runoff against incumbent Lviv Mayor Andriy Sadovyi.
In the first round, Sadovyi received 40% of the vote, while Synutka was supported by 31% of the voters.
“Lviv is the electoral bastion of western Ukraine,” says Oktysiuk. If Synutka wins the election, the region will become Poroshenko’s stronghold come national elections.
Big parties lose to local elites
Ukrainian presidents rarely stay in politics after leaving office. Poroshenko falls out of line: The second ex-president to be elected to parliament after his term ended, he is on track of establishing himself as the leader of opposition.
According to Oktysiuk, the local election showed that there are currently four politicians with the nationwide popularity in Ukraine – Zelensky, Poroshenko, leader of the pro-Russian 44-member Opposition Platform – For Life party Viktor Medvedchuk, who is popular in eastern Ukraine, and ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko leader of the Batkivshchyna party, which holds 24 seats in parliament and has its core electorate in rural areas.
Yet none of them control a major city. That can change on Nov. 22, if Poroshenko’s candidate wins Lviv.
So far, the local elections have been a triumph for local elites.
In Ukraine’s two largest cities – Kyiv and Kharkiv – mayors Vitali Klitschko and Hennady Kernes scored over 50% of the vote in the first round of the election and kept their seats. In Odesa, Mayor Hennady Trukhanov won re-election in the Nov. 15 runoff, while Dnipro Mayor Borys Filatov is expected to secure re-election in the runoff on Nov. 22.
None of the four mayors are affiliated with a major nationwide party. In three of the four biggest cities, the parties of local mayors also won the most seats in the city council. Only in Kyiv, Klitschko’s UDAR party won one seat less than Poroshenko’s European Solidarity party.
Among Ukraine’s largest cities the only outlier is Lviv, where a national party has a real chance at toppling the incumbent mayor.
Poroshenko’s rise in western Ukraine
Winning Lviv, a city of 720,000 people and the unofficial capital of western Ukraine, can substantially boost Poroshenko’s chances of becoming Zelensky’s main political opponent.
There is a good chance that Poroshenko’s candidate will take Lviv.
His party, European Solidarity, already came first for the city council. It got 30% of the vote, beating the current mayor’s Samopomich party by 10 percent.
Poroshenko’s party’s successful run in Lviv has highlighted the shortcomings of other political parties who saw western Ukraine as their stronghold.
The pro-European Voice party, having 19 seats in parliament, barely made it into the Lviv council and failed to pass the 5% threshold into the oblast council. The nationalist Svoboda party made a successful run in the neighboring Ivano-Frankivsk and Ternopil Oblasts yet won only a handful of seats in Lviv Oblast, western Ukraine’s most populous region.
Poroshenko has monopolized the support of residents of western Ukraine who are overwhelmingly pro-European Union, NATO and stand for a tougher line against Russia, says Oktysiuk.
European Solidarity’s success has also coincided with the downslide of Zelensky’s Servant of the People party which couldn’t score higher than third place in any major city.
Zelensky, who took office in May 2019, came to power on promises of defeating corruption, stopping the war with Russia and bringing a higher standard of living. None of the main promises are currently achieved.
According to a November poll by Rating Group, nationwide, Zelensky’s Servant of the People party is supported by 22% of the voters, while Poroshenko’s European Solidarity has a 15% support rate. Opposition Platform – For Life party is supported by 17% of the voters.
The numbers are in stark contrast with the 2019 parliamentary election, where Zelensky’s party won 43% of the popular vote, and European Solidarity got only 8%.
Battle for Lviv
However, for Lviv residents, the race is about their city’s problems such as the construction of a recycling plant and better city planning. Here, Sadovyi, who runs the city for 14 years, is expected to have an edge.
Mariana Malachivska-Danchak, head of the Lviv-based Fama research agency, projects that Sadovyi will win on Nov. 22 with 60% of the vote.
Sadovyi, who initially promised to not seek re-election, told the Kyiv Post that it was the need to build a recycling plant in Lviv that kept him from retirement.
“It was a hard decision for me, but after beginning to construct the waste recycling plant, it would have been wrong to step down,” Sadovyi told the Kyiv Post before the first round of voting.
In December, the mayor announced that the city will construct the plant within two years. A year prior, the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) pledged 35 million euros for ecological means in Ukraine including a recycling plant in Lviv.
Waste management has been a major problem for Lviv. The city had to close its waste disposal site in 2016, and has to pay to transport its waste elsewhere.
Synutka, who previously served as the governor of Lviv Oblast under President Poroshenko, says that the recycling plant should be built far from residential areas. He also accuses the incumbent mayor of mismanagement.
Synutka told the Kyiv Post that Sadovyi is promising to solve Lviv’s waste crisis for 15 years now with no result.
Synutka was long accused by Sadovyi of helping Poroshenko block Lviv from taking its trash out of the city limits. “Sadovyi is trying to cover his mismanagement by making it a political conflict,” parries Synutka.
The 2016 waste crisis left a stain on the city and killed Sadovyi’s national rating. Now, Synutka is trying to capitalize on those dissatisfied with Sadovyi’s leadership.
Svoboda’s candidate Ruslan Koshulynskyi, who came third in the mayoral race with 9% of the vote, endorsed Synutka over Sadovyi.
In recent years, European Solidarity has been actively campaigning on a nationalist platform making Svoboda their natural ally.
Malachivska-Danchak says that even before the endorsement most Svoboda party voters were ready to vote for Synutka. However, she adds that “it’s a mistake to count political ratings as a simple math equation,” meaning that not all of Koshulynskyi’s supporters will vote for Synutka.
Synutka’s campaign promises are solving the city’s waste problem and improving city planning, telling the Kyiv Post that illegal construction and a poor public transport system are Lviv’s main issues.
Malachivska-Danchak says that a low voter turnout will play a role in the upcoming election, with supporters of the challenger having more incentive to attend the polling stations. She also adds that “political technologists say that this race is not about Synutka against Sadovyi, yet Sadovyi against Poroshenko.”
According to Fama, Poroshenko has a 58% approval rating in Lviv, three times the nationwide numbers.
Poroshenko has actively campaigned on the ground. According to Malachivska-Danchak, for some time Poroshenko was also featured on billboards campaigning for Synutka, which gave the candidate a boost.
Synutka has acknowledged that Poroshenko’s support is important for his campaign.
However, Oktysiuk says that while Poroshenko will receive a major symbolic victory in case of a successful campaign in Lviv and a chance to mobilize the nationalistic electoral base, heading such a complicated city can have its downturns.
“There are major infrastructure problems that come with winning the city,” says Oktysiuk. “Leading Lviv is a tough job.”
