There are numerous risks of outbreaks of violence in Ukraine as the country enters a turbulent election period, according to a report issued by a U.S. think tank on Feb. 25.
Two big elections will take place in Ukraine this year: presidential on March 31 and parliamentary on Oct. 27, and both could be flashpoints for violence, the United States Institute of Peace, which conducted the research, said in its report.
“Though the risk of severe election violence is minimal, low-intensity forms are likely, particularly in advance of the parliamentary elections,” reads the report, entitled “Preventing Violence during Ukraine’s 2019 Elections.”
The institute said that most of the threats of violence come from internal sources, such as attacks by far-right groups, as well as between supporters of rival politicians.
However, the report also says that amid Russia’s ongoing war on Ukraine in the east, Moscow is likely to interfere in both of the elections.
The think tank conducted its risk assessment in September-December 2018, based on an analysis of national trends, focus groups, and interviews with election and security officials, observers, candidates, and civil society players across Ukraine.
The report defines election violence as “a form of political violence deliberately used to change the election process or outcome.”
One of the threats of election violence is Russia’s war in Ukraine’s east, which the Kremlin unleashed in 2014 after its invasion and occupation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula.
The report says that the war effectively prevents around five million Ukrainian voters in Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts from voting.
In addition, holding elections in wartime creates new opportunities for armed groups to attack, with the aim of undermining political stability, the report reads.
“The presence of heavy weaponry and illicit unregistered small arms – especially in the oblasts bordering the conflict area, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kharkiv – increases the severity of the possible violence.”
The report predicts that the Kremlin could carry out cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns, and other forms of hybrid warfare in order to interfere in the Ukrainian elections.
“Opposition parties, covert agents, biased media outlets, the Russian Orthodox Church, and social media bots will be instrumentalized in an effort to spread rumors and conspiracy theories, and to undermine trust in Ukrainian institutions,” the report reads.
“Low media literacy rates among the electorate will ensure that these techniques remain effective.”
The report said that open military aggression by Russia targeting the election process “is unlikely, but must be anticipated.”
Another threat is the competition for the power between criminal networks linked to certain local authorities.
“Connections between local officials and criminal organizations present a serious risk of localized intimidation and physical attacks,” the report reads.
According to the research, the western oblasts of Rivne, Zhytomyr, and Zakarpatska, as well as such large cities as Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa are likely to be the epicenters of such risks.
The report also says that recently formed far-right organizations that have attacked ethnic minorities, LGBTQ and human rights activists in Ukraine present a physical threat to voters and candidates.
“(Far-right groups) could be recruited to intimidate or provoke violence for political purposes,” the report reads. “Several far-right groups maintain ties with law enforcement and government officials, leading to unacceptable leniency toward some of the violence they perpetrate, and a severe lack of accountability,” it continues.
The institute said it expects several parties to try to cause disruption on polling days.
“There will likely be isolated attempts to block access to polling stations, steal or destroy voting materials, and attack election officials, poll workers, and observers. Candidates’ representatives may show up at polling stations disguised as journalists or observers in an attempt to disrupt the election process or intimidate voters and poll workers.”
Apart from that, the report says that religious polarization could carry the highest risks of violence.
“Ukraine has not recently experienced violence connected to religious schism. However, the creation of a unified Orthodox Church of Ukraine, independent from Moscow, has deepened religious divisions, (and these) could escalate into violence.”
According to the report, post-election protests, which are likely to happen, can also turn violent.
“Supporters of a losing candidate (could) express their anger over real or perceived election fraud,” the document reads. “Protests against the results of the presidential election are also likely if a candidate who is perceived to be sympathetic to Russia makes it to the runoff.”
